Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Park, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Potential for periods of rain Thursday through the weekend.
Impacts appear to be limited at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A cold front approaches Wednesday and pushes through Wednesday night. It will then stall over or near the area through the weekend. Shortwave energy pivoting through the base of a longwave trough will likely generate multiple waves of low pressure that will move along the stalled front. Exact location of this front will determine timing, location and amount of rainfall.

General consensus from latest guidance has the front placed offshore through much of this period, but there is still a good amount of uncertainty. A very large spread exists in the latest NBM QPF percentiles. Looking at 10th and 90th percentiles for multiple 24 hour periods Thursday through Monday, the 10th percentile is completely dry each period while the 90th percentile maxes out with the 24 hour period ending 00z Sunday with 1.5 to 2.5 inches across the area. The wetter solution could potentially bring periods of heavy rain and in turn a flooding threat, but this is a low probability at this time. WPC has a marginal threat for excessive rain south of the area for Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak low pressure continues to move farther east of the region with weak troughing remaining over the region. A ridge of high pressure builds in Wednesday.

Mainly VFR expected for the remainder of the TAF period. The exception may be for outlying and coastal terminals tonight with a low chance of low stratus possible (mainly KGON, KISP, KHPN, KJFK), but more confident in KGON. Isolated showers possible this afternoon and tonight but not confident enough in coverage or occurrence to include in the TAFs at this time. TSRA possible but isolated if they occur at all.

Generally light and variable or a light N wind early this afternoon. Winds gradually shift S into the late afternoon before becoming light and variable once again. Light N/NW wind Wednesday morning becomes more W/SW by afternoon, remaining under 10kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze today could be a few hours off.

Low chance of a SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, mainly 20Z-00Z.

Low chance of low stratus late tonight, mainly 8Z-12Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower at times.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.

Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.

Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A light pressure gradient will lead to sub-SCA conditions through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through the rest of today with a lingering 3 ft 7s swell. The risk decreases to low both Wednesday and Thursday with a weakening swell and winds largely under 10 kt.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.