Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Park, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
An upper level shortwave over the Great Lakes region moves east today, deamplifying as it does so. At the surface, a cold front approaches and moves through late in the day into the evening hours. With upper level support weakening and not a lot of moisture to work with, expect this front will move through dry today.

Temperatures will continue to run well below normal, with highs in the warmest areas (the coast and into the NYC metro area)
only reaching to about freezing.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
The upper trough axis pushes east of the area tonight, allowing for a more zonal flow to set up for Saturday and Saturday night before the next upper level shortwave dives southeast from southern Canada Saturday night and moves through the Northeast on Sunday. High pressure pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast on Saturday, allowing a surface cold front moves through late Sunday into Sunday night.

Dry conditions continue tonight through Sunday as there continues to be little moisture to work with and lack of phasing between the northern and southern jet streams. A very progressive pattern will limit the availability of any moisture. However, a stray rain or snow shower cannot be ruled out with the cold front Sunday, as a stronger southerly flow might bring in enough moisture in some very isolated areas.

Lows tonight and highs Saturday continue to be well below normal under renewed cold advection until about Saturday morning. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the single digits in the interior. With highs on Friday a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, do expect warmer overnight lows. Some isolated areas may dip below zero in the interior. Highs on Saturday will be similar to Friday, in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the entire forecast area. Sunday will see much warmer and near seasonable levels for temperatures thanks to return southerly flow from the offshore high.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A series of upper level shortwaves and associated frontal boundaries move across the region through the long term. The first will be Sunday night into Monday, followed by a second Tuesday night into Wednesday. Each of these systems should bring some cloud cover to the area, however there is not much moisture to work with, so many of these fronts will push across the area dry.

Forecast models then differ a bit on the potential for a more robust upper level trough and associated surface low/cold front moving across the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This next feature may bring a round of precipitation and more notably, another shot of arctic air to the region.

Overall, stuck somewhat close to the NBM guidance, however did increase POPs for the Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night period.
Will introduce some chance POPs, during the period with the deterministic 00z forecast models showing the wave of low pressure moving across or near the region. Felt that the NBM POPs were just too low and could not be used.

Drier and colder conditions return to end the week.

High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the middle and upper 30s. Tuesday appears to be the warmest day of the week with highs ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. With cloud cover and precip chances, Wednesdays highs only reach the 30s. Thursday and Friday, temperatures remain below or right at the freezing mark.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure remains over the region today. A weak cold front passes through this evening.

VFR.

WSW winds 5-10kt will gradually veer to the WNW early this morning, becoming NW by this evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late Friday Night-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. W-WSW gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will lead to winds and seas below SCA levels through Saturday. A steepening pressure gradient Saturday night results in increasing SW winds and the next chance for SCA wind gusts and seas on the ocean. SCA conditions should then continue on the ocean waters through Sunday.

Small craft conditions are expected to continue for a large portion of next week as a series of cold fronts move across the area.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues expected through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.