Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Park, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold with below average temperatures through Thursday.

2) No major storm systems through the forecast period, with just a few minor disturbances late in the week and this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
High pressure builds over the area today, and then slowly builds off the northeast coast tonight through Thursday. This airmass brought in colder than normal air with temperatures starting out in the lower to mid 20s this morning, with highs expected to range in the 30s, some 10 to 13 degrees below normal. With nearly clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling tonight will allow for temperatures to drop back into the mid and upper 20s, near 30 in New York City. Temperatures slowly recover Thursday as the high moves off the coast, with temperatures still around 5 degrees below normal.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A couple of weak disturbances embedded in the WNW flow regime will progress through late Friday into Sat AM, and Sun and Sun night. A cold front passes through Sunday night returning above normal temperatures of Friday through Sunday to more seasonal levels. No hazardous weather is expected with these disturbances.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR with high pressure through the TAF period.

WNW wind gusts 20-25 kt will continue diminishing through 08z.
Sustained winds will also weaken and become around 10 kt or less by early morning. Winds will also back to the NW overnight.
Winds will briefly become light, possibly variable after 15z, but should prevail out of the S or SE under 10 kt after 19-21z.
Winds become light and variable once again after 00Z Thursday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts tonight may be off by 1-2 hours.

Timing of wind shift to the S-SE may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday Night-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR. Low chance for rain or snow shower and MVFR, mainly NW of NYC metro.

Friday-Friday night: VFR during the day, with possible MVFR or lower in -RA at night.

Saturday and Sunday: Chance of rain and MVFR. S-SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions gradually subside by early this morning across the far eastern Long Island Sound. Ocean seas will remain elevated at SCA levels on the waters west of Moriches Inlet until late tonight, and through tonight east of Moriches Inlet.
The SCA for the ocean waters was adjusted for the longer period of SCA seas on the western ocean waters.

Sub advisory conditions then prevail with high pressure essentially remaining nearby Thursday through Friday. A strengthening southerly flow Friday night into Saturday will bring marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters toward Saturday morning, becoming more likely by the afternoon as the southerly flow continues. Small craft conditions then continue into Sunday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353-355.