Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Beach, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. Freeze warning into this morning. Cooler than normal dry day today.

2. Frost forecast for tonight.

3. Otherwise, mainly dry, warmer trends to daytime temperatures Thursday into Friday.

4. A warming trend for late week with above normal temperatures likely Friday into Saturday. Potential for well above normal temps for early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Freeze warning on track, just extended it another hour to 9AM EDT this morning. This is in effect for portions of the region, within the greater NYC Metro including parts of NE NJ, all of NYC and Nassau.

Weather is conducive to extra cooling with lack of clouds and decreasing winds. Otherwise a dry day expected today with cooler than normal temperatures as daytime mixing heights are limited.

KEY MESSAGE 2
For tonight, the high pressure will be making its way towards the Canadian Maritimes. While temperatures are relatively warmer than those of the previous night, the low level moisture content will be higher with more onshore flow. Winds will be quite light as well especially away from the coast. Frost is expected to form, mostly outside the NYC Metro. However, within the NYC Metro and adjacent areas there is forecast to be some areas and patches of frost, with temperatures ranging from the low to mid 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Otherwise, the airmass will moderate over time as we head towards the weekend. Daytime temperatures progressively become warmer each day today through Friday. 850mb temperatures have a good consensus of warming with the SW to W flow Thursday into Friday.

A cold front approaches Friday and moves across Friday night.
There is a limit of moisture with this and POPs with the rain showers are at most chance. Not much in the way of total rainfall expected with no hydrologic issues.


KEY MESSAGE 4
Good model agreement continues on broad troughing over central Canada and then nrn Plains moving ewd across ern Canada and the Northeast Fri into Sat, which should send a cold front through Sat morning. Prior to fropa, temps should already have begun a warming trend, with highs 65-70 from NYC north/west (5-10 degrees above normal), and mid 50s to lower 60s for Long Island and most of S CT (near normal). Air mass behind the front will be only slightly cooler than that for the weekend as strong Canadian high pressure builds across, with highs mostly from the mid 50s to mid 60s, still a few degrees above normal from NYC north/west.

A more appreciable warming trend should take place early next week as a return flow develops on the back side of the high as it departs out into the Atlantic, and as a warm front passes to the N. Highs on Mon should reach the mid/upper 70s from NYC north/west and the 60s east of there. Even warmer temps expected on Tue, upper 70s/lower 80s from NYC north/west and 60 to lower 70s east. These numbers are 15-20 degrees above normal north/west and about 5-10 degrees above normal east.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure center builds in overhead today, moving offshore this evening, but remaining nosing southwest across the region through Thursday.

VFR thru the TAF period. Light N winds for outlying terminals early this morning, with occasional N 15-20kt gusts for NYC/NJ metro terminals. Gusts to 15-20kt could become briefly more frequent after daybreak for NYC/NJ metro terminals with morning heating.

Otherwise, winds subside and veer NE through mid to late morning, giving way to return SE synoptic/seabreeze flow 10kt or less in the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief period of NNE 15-20kt gusts likely for morning push through 14z. Winds subside and veer ne through mid to late morning, giving way to return SE synoptic/seabreeze flow around 10 kt btwn 17z and 20z.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late Wednesday night through Thursday: VFR. SE/S winds generally less than 10 kt.

Friday: VFR. SW winds 10 to 15 kt.

Friday Night: Potential for MVFR or lower in rain showers.
Highest chances north and west of NYC terminals. SW to NW windshift.

Saturday: VFR. NW gust to 25 kt possible.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions have lowered below SCA thresholds and are expected to remain below SCA thresholds with high pressure moving overhead with thereby a weak ambient pressure gradient in place for the next few days. There could be some 25 kt gusts for parts of the ocean into today but these are only expected to be occasional.

Next time for potential SCA conditions will be with the cold front as it moves through late Friday into Friday night. This will be mainly due to seas on the ocean, which could linger into the first half of the weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ072>075- 176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...None.