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FXUS65 KBOU 100955 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 255 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- High winds up to 80 mph in the higher mountains and Front Range Foothills today.

- Areas of blowing snow along Highway 93, between Golden and Boulder, is a concern today.

- Light snow in the mountains through Monday, possibly spilling onto northern plains Monday night.

- Still uncertainty around cutoff low through the Southern Rockies Wednesday, but most impacts should stay south.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies at the moment. There is a good amount of clouds and moisture not far off to the north over Wyoming. This area of mainly mid and upper level moisture spans west- northwestward to the Pacific Ocean. This will result in mostly cloudy skies for a good part of the day. However, expect enough breaks in the clouds to push temperatures well into the 40s and lower 50s across northeast Colorado. Some of this Pacific moisture will get wrung out over the north central mountains.
Lapse rates are rather poor, but enough moisture and orographic lift will be in place for areas of light snow. Favored northwest facing slopes could see up to 4 inches of snow through tonight, but most locations will see less than 2 inches. Along and just east of the Front Range Mountains, a mountain wave is expected to develop this morning with wind gusts to 75 mph possible over the Front Range Mountains and higher foothills. Warm air advection will lead to poor lapse rates and mixing across the plains. HiRes models showing narrow swaths of stronger winds extending east off the foothills and on to the plains. This seems reasonable do to the poor mixing. So we may very well see some locations gust to 40 mph out of the west and then just 10 miles away to the north/south, winds may be light out of the east.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

For Monday, the northwest flow pattern will relax a bit and shift more westerly during the day. Moisture depth decreases in the mountains with the light snowfall diminishing a bit in the afternoon over the higher mountains. There is a weak trof and associated cold front which will back in across northeast Colorado Monday evening which increases low level moisture over the lower elevations. There is some initial weak QG forcing but the brunt stays up in Wyoming. Could see just enough moisture, shallow upslope and lift for a slight chance of showers across the northeast plains, especially near the Wyoming border.

The main feature over the west this week which will be a developing closed low over the Great Basin on Tuesday before dropping into southern Arizona by late Wednesday. The models are in better agreement on this scenario which will mean the brunt of any precipitation will mainly stay south of our forecast area. As the low drops down into Arizona it does pump up low level moisture back into southern Colorado, possibly as far north as the southern Elbert and Lincoln counties on Wednesday. This could result in a chance of snow showers. By Thursday, the low has drags farther south that Colorado turns dry again.

For the period late in the week and into the weekend, high pressure ridge builds across much of the west with dry conditions and warming temperatures expected for the mountains and plains.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR conditions to prevail through Sunday. Highs clouds to increase overnight and persist through Sunday. After the southerly drainage winds at DEN and APA, west-northwest winds will develop around 18Z. Gusts to 30 knots will be possible, through late afternoon 22-23Z. At BJC, west winds are expected to be stronger with gusts to 40 knots possible. HiRes models show these stronger winds may not be widespread with some eddies producing weak easterly winds.
To sum it up, wind forecast confidence is low with the gusty west-northwest winds the most likely scenario, but far from certain.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ033>036.

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