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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Taylorsville, UT

June 25, 2024 2:35 AM MDT (08:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 9:04 PM
Moonrise 11:14 PM   Moonset 8:45 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Taylorsville, UT
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Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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390 FXUS65 KSLC 242149 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 349 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
Hot and dry conditions will continue across northern Utah...with showers and thunderstorms continuing across southern and eastern Utah through Tuesday. By Wednesday, a more widespread threat of showers and thunderstorms can be expected.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...This afternoon a gradient in moisture remains in place across southern/central Utah with PW values approaching an inch near the UT/AZ border. In addition, mesoanalysis shows up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE into southwest Utah.
Surface moisture remains decent through this region, with dew points largely in the mid 40s with some pockets near 50. This environment is marginally conducive to flash flooding, mainly where any storms can train or redevelop upstream. So far one cell over the upper Escalante Basin has tapped into this environment.
Over time this evening, the threat for any isolated flash flood will transition toward the AZ border as outflows from convection over the upper Escalante Staircase work down toward the border, and interact with the remaining instability.

Farther north across northern Utah, much drier and hot conditions remain in place. A very localized gusty wind threat is possible from any decaying showers on the northern periphery of the moisture up through Juab to Utah to Summit Counties through early this evening. Otherwise, the continued hot daytime temperatures and poor overnight recoveries (with lows briefly touching the mid 70s early in the morning hours) continues to support a major HeatRisk across much of the Wasatch Front corridor. Temperatures will even climb a degree or two into Tuesday. Thus heat headlines across northern and central Utah run through Tuesday evening.

On Tuesday the environment changes little, continuing to support afternoon scattered shower and thunderstorm development across southern and portions of central Utah. Isolated flash flood threat will once again be the main concern across southern Utah.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday), Issued 441 AM MDT...
High pressure centered over New Mexico will position our CWA in a moist southwesterly flow. This moisture will advect into the entire region by Wednesday with PWATs approaching record levels.
PWATs Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be >1" across most of the state with values approaching 1.3" across southern Utah. This moisture will pair with a trough moving in from the PNW to create scattered thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures remain elevated with a brief cool down on Friday.

Wednesday`s convection will be driven moreso by a shortwave out ahead of the main trough. Given the elevated moisture profiles, storms that do form will be capable of producing flash flooding in flood prone areas. Some guidance keeps precipitation going in parts of the CWA overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Lingering cloud cover/precipitation on Thursday may influence convective initiation timing and intensity on Thursday afternoon. By Thursday the main trough will be moving by to our north with enhanced CAPE and shear profiles along with greater synoptic forcing. These parameters will increase the risk for strong to severe storms on Thursday, depending on the amount of clearing we see in the morning/early afternoon. The air mass moving in behind the trough will be much drier and cooler, however the southern extent of this air mass will be limited with less of a cool down across southern Utah. Areas across northern Utah will see temperatures cool closer to normal with the passage of this trough.

Friday will be the coolest day of the long term period as ridging builds back in by the weekend with temperatures warming back to the mid 90s for most valleys and mid 100s for southern Utah along with mostly dry conditions. However, this appears to be short lived as most of the guidance brings another PNW trough through the region early next week. 36% of guidance has a deeper/faster moving trough whereas the remaining guidance is a more shallow trough that is further to our west on Monday.

AVIATION
KSLC...Minimal operational concerns are forecast for the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Winds will follow diurnally driven trends, with light northerly winds reverting to a southerly drainage flow around 04Z this evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue across southern and central Utah through the remainder of the daylight hours. Areas near passing storms may experience gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 30-35 mph.
After sundown, showers will diminish and flows will follow light diurnal driven trends. Another day of showers and thunderstorms will resume tomorrow afternoon, bringing similar threats of gusty and erratic outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER
An anomalously moist airmass for June remains in place across southern Utah today and Tuesday maintaining daily shower and thunderstorm chances. The environment is favorable for storms capable of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding.
However, much drier and hotter conditions remain in place across northern Utah through Tuesday, where various heat headlines remain in place.

By Wednesday an upstream trough will start to interact with the airmass in place, pulling the moisture farther north into northern Utah and bringing more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the state. By Thursday, dry southwesterly flow will start to nose into the southwest corner of the state, as the best moisture starts to shunt eastward. However, this will likely feature yet one more day of showers and thunderstorms, favoring more the eastern half of Utah.

For Friday into the weekend another Pacific trough will nose in to our northwest ushering in drier southwesterly flow across the area, along with a slight cool down across northern Utah. However, the main effect will be a warming and drying trend through the weekend with breezy southwesterly winds. Chances for critical fire weather conditions will likely stay confined to southwestern Utah on Friday, more of western Utah by Saturday and most of the state by Sunday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ101- 104>106-116.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM MDT Tuesday for UTZ102-103-107-118-119.

WY...None.




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