Oak Beach-Captree, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Beach-Captree, NY

June 20, 2024 2:04 PM EDT (18:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 7:42 PM   Moonset 3:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1232 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.

Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sun - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sun night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms.

Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1232 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure over the western atlantic will remain in control through late this week. A cold front will slide down from the north on Friday and stall nearby on Saturday. The front will lift north as a warm front on Sunday, with a cold front to follow on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Beach-Captree, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 201720 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 120 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain in control through late week. A cold front sliding down from the north on Friday will stall nearby by on Saturday, then return north as a warm front on Sunday, with a cold front to follow on Monday.
High pressure will settle in on Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
The forecast remains on track.

High pressure weakens a little over the region today. Most of the forecast area will be dry, but a pre-frontal trough with moisture convergence may help spark some showers/tstms across the northern zones. Any storms could produce a strong wind gust or small hail, but with weak shear, the threat of severe thresholds being met will be limited to just off to our north, but not completely out of the question over here. This agrees well with SPC marginal risk skirting our northern zones.

The trough will also make it tough for dewpoints to mix out in its vicinity, so dewpoints across the northern zones will probably hover around 70 for a good portion of the day. Farther south, a somewhat drier boundary layer and lower surface dewpoints for the most part. H8 temps will be 18-20 deg C, so ambient temperatures should be a little higher than yesterday's.
Heat advisories for this period remain unchanged.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A cold front approaches on Friday, stalls over or near the forecast area late in the day into Friday night, then begins to retreat north as a warm front on Saturday. SBCAPES across the northern zones may increase to 1000-2000 J/kg. With lift from approaching front and subtle shortwaves aloft, showers and sct TSTMs will be likely across these zones in the afternoon and evening. PoPs capped at chance for now across the rest of the forecast area. While a little stronger than today, shear remains weak, but can't rule out a strong to severe wind gust north of the city.

Temperatures and dewpoints for Friday continue to present some challenges. It appears that the cold front and potential convection/associated clouds have been delayed by a few hours from what was progged 24 hours ago. This will give the northern zones a little more time to heat up, but there's discrepancy among the models regarding how hot it can get here beforehand. 850mb temps vary from as little as 16-17C to as high as 19-20C, with the higher values generally towards the west. Farther south, a little more confidence in the high temperature forecast. With the approaching front, dewpoints in the lower 70s across the northern zones and upper 60s for most the southern zones.

Regarding heat indices and advisories, there was enough confidence to extend the advisory for the Lower Hudson Valley as well as Northern Fairfield and Northern New Haven Counties. Farther east in CT, temperatures probably not warm enough to support another day of widespread 95+ heat indices. And while indices of at least 95 might be widespread in NYC, parts of the north shore of LI, as well as Southern Westchester and Southern Fairfield Counties, it's not anticipated to be the case today, thus falling short of the 2-day criteria.

With the stalled front, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Friday night and Saturday, with generally higher chances across the northern zones. PWATs climb to around 2 inches in the vicinity of the front Friday through Saturday, and with a relatively weak steering flow, slow moving storms, potentially training along the cold front, introduce a chance of flash flooding. See the hydrology section below for more details.

High temperatures on Saturday should be cooler than Friday's, but this may continue to trend warmer with a more northerly stalling of the cold front. Heat advisories may need to be extended into Saturday, particularly across NE NJ.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
**Key Points**

* Hot and Humid on Sunday with showers and t-storms expected late Sunday into Sunday night.

* A cold front with showers and t-storms slides through Monday which breaks the high humidity and heat.

A warm front will lift north of the region early Sunday. A lead shortwave out ahead of the main trough / mid level shortwave is progged by most guidance to arrive during Sunday evening. This will lead to another round of showers and t-storms late Sunday into Sunday night.

Sunday appears to be the hottest and most humid day of the period with thickness ridging working in. The CWA gets purely into the warm sector and more of a SW flow. Heat index values will climb into the 90s for a good chunk of the area, with some 100 values in portions of NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Heat index values likely remain in the 80s across eastern Long Island eastern/coastal CT.

A cold front moves across the area on Monday. Monday will remain unsettled, with showers likely along with the chances for thunderstorms. The front should clear the area Monday evening, and with that the humidity gradually falls into Tue AM. Look for a drier W to NW flow to begin Tuesday as high pressure works in from the west. It will only be a subtle air mass change with the humidity dropping some. The winds will likely shift more to the south late in the day with humidity levels rising again Tuesday night and Wednesday. Uncertainty remains with the eastward progression of upper level energy and the southern extent of a frontal boundary by late Wednesday into Thursday. Late day or evening convection is a possibility late Wed, but much, if not all of the day will be rain free. Rain chances continue into Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR as high pressure remains over the Western Atlantic through the TAF period. A cold front slowly sags south towards the region on Friday.

S-SSW winds 10-15 kt this afternoon. There could be some occasional gusts 15-20 kt. Winds will weaken tonight and should back to the SW with outlying terminals going light and variable.
Winds increase Friday morning and become S-SSW 10-15 kt by afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR, KJFK, and KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional wind gusts to 15-20kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Afternoon-Night: Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT. MVFR or IFR possible southeast CT Friday night.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely late day into the night. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Strengthening S flow due sea breeze circulations could push wind gusts close to 25 kt near the NY Harbor entrance and the adjacent coastal waters late today into early this evening.
Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels through at least Saturday.

Ocean seas 5+ ft become become increasingly likely Sunday and Sunday night, along with a few gusts up to 25 kt.
These conditions will likely linger into Monday for a good portion of the ocean waters.

Conditions fall below SCA levels on the ocean on Tuesday, however can not rule out some lingering 5-ft seas Tue morning E of Moriches Inlet.

HYDROLOGY
Showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday are expected to produce an average of a half inch to an inch of rainfall north of NYC, and lower amounts for NYC, LI and NE NJ. There is a threat of higher amounts as the storms may redevelop along a stalled cold front and move slowly. There is therefore at least a low risk for localized flash flooding during this period, mainly north of the city, where the front will be stalled.

Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday and into a portion of Monday. The uncertainty remains high around potential hydrologic impacts for this time period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There will be a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches through Friday due to a S-SW wind wave.

CLIMATE
Here are current record high temperatures for today and Friday.

Thursday, June 20

NYC: 98(1923)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 94(2012)
EWR: 98(2012)
ISP: 93(1995)
BDR: 93(1953)

Friday, June 21

NYC: 97(1988)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 97(2012)
EWR: 100(1953)
ISP: 95(2012)
BDR: 96(2012)

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ005-006.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ007-008.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 28 mi34 minSSW 12G14 71°F 71°F30.3269°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 28 mi46 minSSE 4.1G6 85°F 61°F30.29
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi34 minS 12G14 72°F 70°F30.3170°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi46 minSSW 8.9G12 82°F 66°F30.23
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 39 mi46 min 83°F 69°F30.24
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi46 minS 1.9G4.1 82°F 73°F30.31
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 42 mi46 minS 18G20 79°F 30.28
MHRN6 47 mi46 minSSW 8G12
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi46 minS 8.9G9.9 76°F 67°F30.29


Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY 8 sm71 minSSW 0910 smClear84°F70°F62%30.31
KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY 14 sm68 minSW 1010 smMostly Cloudy82°F70°F66%30.30
KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY 24 sm68 minWSW 0810 smClear82°F68°F62%30.32
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Wind History graph: FRG
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Tide / Current for Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York
   
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Democrat Point
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Thu -- 01:03 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:42 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.2
2
am
0.4
3
am
0.9
4
am
1.5
5
am
2
6
am
2.3
7
am
2.3
8
am
2.1
9
am
1.7
10
am
1.2
11
am
0.7
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
1.1
4
pm
1.9
5
pm
2.5
6
pm
3
7
pm
3.1
8
pm
3
9
pm
2.5
10
pm
1.8
11
pm
1.2


Tide / Current for Amityville, Long Island, New York
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Amityville
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Thu -- 03:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:35 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:58 PM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Amityville, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.7
2
am
0.5
3
am
0.2
4
am
0.1
5
am
0.1
6
am
0.3
7
am
0.6
8
am
0.9
9
am
1.1
10
am
1.1
11
am
1
12
pm
0.8
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
0.4
3
pm
0.2
4
pm
0.1
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
0.4
7
pm
0.8
8
pm
1.1
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
1.5
11
pm
1.4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Upton, NY,




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