Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Bay Shore, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Cold front and wave of low pressure depart today.

2) A series of frontal systems likely for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Rain associated with a cold frontal passage and wave of low pressure will continue to move across the area early this morning and depart during the afternoon/evening.

Expect rain to continue this morning, with POPs gradually decreasing this afternoon. Much of this precipitation is now post frontal with the cold front currently just south of Long Island. As the precipitation comes to an end and some colder temperatures move into the area, can not rule out some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain. The best chances for any wet snowflakes will be across the far northern and northwestern parts of the CWA No accumulation is expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2
After a period of high pressure and a slight warming trend thru Wednesday, a weak frontal passage is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. This front is moisture starved so not much in the way of precip is expected at this time. A cold front is then currently timed for late Thursday into Fri. Moisture transport ahead of the system could allow for a round of rain with the frontal passage. Temps behind the front likely to cool into the 40s for highs, with widespread subfreezing temps for lows.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front and wave of low pressure will continue to move across the area early this morning and depart during the afternoon/evening. High pressure builds back into the region tonight.

Conditions have been variable, from VFR to IFR, across the region as a wave of low pressure tracks through the area. IFR to LIFR becomes widespread this morning and into the early push as another round of rain moves into the terminals.

Conditions gradually improve back to MVFR by mid to late morning, into the mid afternoon, north and west to south and east as rain ends. A brief mix of rain/snow is possible at KSWF and KGON as the precipitation ends. Improvement to VFR occurs during the mid to late afternoon. There is timing uncertainty with the improving conditions and will be dependent on how quickly the low and cold front move south and east.

Winds NE 5 to 10 kt gradually back to N and increase early this morning. During the afternoon, winds back to NNW with gusts 17-24 kt. Occasional gusts 15-19 kt possible in the late morning. Gusts likely continue into evening at most terminals with gusts ending by late tonight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine timing of rain and flight category changes into this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Late Monday night - Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR with S/SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Thursday: VFR with a slight chance of rain in the evening, MVFR or lower late at night with rain likely. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday: Chance of rain early with MVFR or lower possible. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions are expected on the waters today and tonight with seas around 5 ft and gusts around 25kt. For the NON-ocean waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels thru tonight. High pressure then builds in for the middle of the week should keep winds and seas below SCA criteria for all waters thru the day on Thursday. Winds and seas ramp up Thursday night thru Friday with a frontal system. Winds and seas expected to fall below SCA levels on Sat attm.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.