Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Bay Shore, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Periodic rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm today.

2) High heat and humidity becoming increasingly likely from mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Showers in association with a passing mid level shortwave and right rear quad of an upper jet streak aloft will pass through into tonight. CAM's are signaling potential for locally heavy rain and embedded tstms mid to late afternoon mainly N/W of NYC as the forcing aloft acts on a very moist air mass, with PW 1.75-2.00 inches and tall/skinny CAPE less than 500 J/kg. The 12Z HRRR predicted a 30-40% chance of an inch of rain in 3 hours mainly over NE NJ and adjacent portions of the lower Hudson Valley, which so far has not panned out, with amts so far less than 1/2 inch. Activity elsewhere should be mostly on the lighter side. An isolated thunderstorm is still possible across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley with the highest instability out that way.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A highly anomalous amplified upper flow will be featured across the country from mid to late week, with a trough out west and a a high centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. H5 heights in the East will be close to 596 dm, about 2 SD above normal, and H8 temps in the 12Z GFS are even warmer, approaching 24-25C each late afternoon. With a little downslope warming via NW flow aloft and light W-NW sfc flow temps are likely to surpass 100 in NE NJ on Wed, and over a more widespread area Thu/Fri.
GEFS/EPS ensembles are in full agreement with this, showing probabilities of max temps 100 or higher at least 50-70% for NE NJ, the NYC metro area and parts of Long Island Wed-Fri, and as high as 80% on Thu. NBM 90th percentile max temps were too extreme to even consider, but blended with raw NBM guidance do suggest some room for high temps to trend a couple of degrees even hotter. With dewpoints in the lower 70s in Wed and the mid/upper 60s Thu/Fri, max heat index values are likely to be 100-105 Wed-Fri across the entire area, and as high as 110 mainly in the urban corridor on Thu. Heat index values are also unlikely to drop below 80 in NYC and immediate surrounding areas both Wed night and Thu night, making for very uncomfortable sleeping conditions and setting up for added daytime heat stress on Thu/Fri. With these values, extreme heat warnings could be needed for the urban corridor and the Hudson/CT river valleys on Wed, for virtually the entire CWA on Thu, and for urban and coastal sections on Fri.

GFS has backed off on the idea of a back door cold fropa later in the week, but not the potential for an MCS passing through in NW flow aloft next weekend. It's much too early to know if that will be the case as the ECMWF holds stronger with upper ridging across the eastern US.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak area of low pressure will pass south of the region overnight allowing an area of SHRA to shift offshore between 22-00Z this evening. Mix of predominantly VFR with occasional MVFR in slightly heaver SHRA.

Predominantly VFR overnight although there is some hints that an IFR/MVFR deck could sneak into the NJ terminals late. Right now, uncertaintly is not high enough to carry MVFR, so will continue with VFR hinting at MVFR mainly at TEB/EWR.

After any early AM MVFR lifts, VFR dominates on Sun with gradually clearing skies by late afternoon.

Winds will be light and varible into the overnight hours, with a slight dominance out of the S-SE. Dominant east, but light flow for Sun.

Becoming hotter through the week with some anomalous density altitudes possible by mid week.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMDs possible across NYC terminals 20-23Z for brief MVFR in heavier SHRA. Otherwise, no significant AMDs expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday: VFR after any early AM VFR dissipates. E winds becoming SE around 10kt.

Monday: VFR with S-SE flow around 10 kt.

Tuesday: VFR with S flow 10 to around 15 kt, G20kt. Isolated SHRA/TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR although overnight fog/low CIGS possible with IFR possible.

Thursday: Predominantly VFR outside of low CIGS/Fog overnight.
Hot.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions forecast to remain below SCA thresholds on the non ocean waters through Thu, and through at least early Tue afternoon on the ocean. Could see some wind gusts approaching 25 kt late day Tue/Wed and seas approaching 5 ft on the ocean in a S flow.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains low through Monday with 1-2 ft swell sets with period varying between 5-10 s and onshore winds at or below 10 kt.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

July 1: KEWR: 100/1963 KBDR: 95/1963 KNYC: 100/1901 KLGA: 97/2018 KJFK: 102/1963 KISP: 96/1964

July 2: KEWR: 102/1966 KBDR: 100/1966 KNYC: 100/1966 KLGA: 101/1966 KJFK: 101/1966 KISP: 99/1966

July 3: KEWR: 105/1966 KBDR: 99/1966 KNYC: 103/1966 KLGA: 107/1966 KJFK: 104/1966 KISP: 104/1966

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 27: KEWR: 75/1999 KBDR: 73/1953 KNYC: 76/1943 KLGA: 77/1943 KJFK: 73/2003 KISP: 72/2021

July 1: KEWR: 77/2018 KBDR: 73/2013 KNYC: 79/2018 KLGA: 79/2018 KJFK: 75/1968 KISP: 73/2025

July 2: KEWR: 79/2022 KBDR: 73/2022 KNYC: 82/1901 KLGA: 78/2002 KJFK: 74/2018 KISP: 74/2014

July 3: KEWR: 82/2002 KBDR: 75/2002 KNYC: 82/2002 KLGA: 81/1966 KJFK: 78/2002 KISP: 76/2018

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.