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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 320 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain and snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain and snow showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 320 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Weak high pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday before slowly moving offshore Friday. The high will remain just offshore on Saturday ahead of a strong frontal system Sunday into early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 042032 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 332 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure builds in tonight through Tuesday, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure returns on Thursday before slowly moving offshore Friday. The high will remain just offshore on Saturday ahead of a strong frontal system Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Skies have become mostly cloudy to overcast with the approach of a mid-level shortwave embedded in a trough. This shortwave will continue its eastward progression into tonight. While the lower atmosphere remains fairly dry, a few sprinkles or light rain showers can't be completely ruled out into the early evening, especially for northwestern areas. Behind the departing shortwave tonight, winds become more NW which allows for continued cold air advection to bring in drier and cooler air. Skies should become clearer overnight with subsidence behind the departing shortwave as temperatures fall into the low 30s for much of the area. The NYC metro may only drop into the upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Weak surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday with dry and cooler conditions expected as weak ridging occurs in the mid- levels. A NW wind continues to advect cooler air into the area and despite partly cloudy skies in the morning, high temperatures are only forecast to rise into the low to possibly middle 40s.

Another trough approaches the area with an embedded shortwave digging toward the East Coast by Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will result in increasingly cloudy skies once again during Tuesday afternoon and evening. This shortwave will result in cyclogenesis well to the south of the area off the Carolina Coastline. Other than the potential of a stray snow or rain shower after midnight on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning for the immediate coast, this low should be fairly inconsequential for our area. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the middle to upper 20s for most outlying areas. The NYC metro will see lows in the low to middle 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
There has not been too much change with the forecast reasoning in the extended with this update. The global ensemble means are in good agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern through the period with a upper trough along the east coast to start transitioning to ridging the end of the week into the beginning of the weekend.

Low pressure will develop off the Middle Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The upper trough axis associated with the low will hang back and not fully move east of the area until late Wednesday.
Northerly flow around the low may bring in just enough lower level moisture to support a 20 percent PoP for a brief snow or rain shower across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Deeper moisture and more organized lift will reside south and east of the area on Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected through much of the day until the upper trough slides to the east.
Highs will be in the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s closer to the coast. These temperatures are about 5 degrees below normal for this time of year.

A surface ridge axis builds over the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Wednesday night will likely be the coldest night of the extended with lows in the 20s for much of the region. The surface ridge axis over the area on Thursday will help keep temperatures below normal in the upper 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast.
High pressure associated with the surface ridge axis begins to shift offshore on Friday and will remain in place to start next weekend.
The shift in the large scale pattern to ridging along the east coast and troughing west will bring a trend towards above normal temperatures Friday into Saturday. Highs by Saturday will be in the lower to middle 50s.

Forecast uncertainty increases for Sunday into early next week.
There is a good signal for a strong frontal system to swing across the eastern states sometime Sunday into Monday. There is a fair amount of spread with the specific details such as timing and intensity. Any precipitation with this system will be plain rain given the larger scale pattern and parent low passing well to our north and west. There may be a period of strong winds both ahead and behind the system as well. However, it is much too early to be specific with wind speeds. The system could bring a brief period of heavy showers, possibly even some thunder. It should be noted that some of the reliable deterministic models have the system moving through late Sunday night into Monday, about a week out. These details will likely not be ironed out until the middle to late this week.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure slowly builds in through tonight.

VFR. West winds 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt or less, veering NW tonight.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK may be only occasional through tonight, and might not occur at all from approx 22z-03z. Occasional gusts 15-19kt possible for KTEB through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. NNW gusts near 20kt afternoon into night, mainly coastal terminals.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft advisory conditions continue on the ocean zones through much of the overnight period with W to NW winds gusting to near 25kt and seas around 5 feet. While the non-ocean waters will be largely sub-SCA tonight, an occasional gust to near 25kt will remain possible. Winds and seas look to subside below SCA thresholds by 10Z Tuesday with sub-SCA everywhere through at least Wednesday morning.

Offshore low pressure on Wednesday may bring wind gusts close to 20 kt on the ocean. Otherwise, high pressure builds over the waters through Thursday which will yield conditions below SCA levels. The high will remain in control Friday into Saturday with the continuation of sub-SCA conditions.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Bay Shore
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Mon -- 03:00 AM EST     0.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:23 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:06 PM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:40 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:22 PM EST     Moonrise
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Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Fire Island Breakwater
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Mon -- 12:05 AM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:33 AM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:03 PM EST     3.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:23 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:31 PM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:22 PM EST     Moonrise
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Fire Island Breakwater, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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