Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Babylon, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Forecast remains on track, with only minor changes to trend from current obs.

Surface low pressure remains over the Canadian Maritimes overnight with high pressure centered over the Central United States. Northwest winds settle in at mainly 7 to 10 mph in most places. With a dry column sky conditions will be primarily clear. With winds being lighter overnight and temperatures in the mid and upper 30s a widespread frost is not expected across the interior, and have not issued an advisory. Patchy frost will be possible.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
The low over the Canadian Maritimes moves slowly to the northeast during Wednesday as the surface high builds to the west, and with the upper trough across the northeast slowly lifting north, with heights rising across the region. With a cool airmass remaining in place Wednesday highs will be similar to Tuesday's. Winds remain from the northwest but will not be as strong or gusty as Tuesday.

The surface high builds closer to the area Wednesday night, and with winds becoming light, under clear skies, a more widespread frost across the interior will be possible. Also, temperatures across this region are expected to fall below freezing, and a freeze watch has been issued from late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A 500mb closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will move NE on Thursday. This will strengthen a surface low, but it will still track well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark at its closest approach during Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall should remain well offshore, so expecting dry weather during this period. The low will however cause northerly winds to increase slightly as the pressure gradient tightens while high pressure tries to build in from the west at the same time. Highs still below normal on Thursday - only around 60, and patchy frost is possible at night well NW of the city. Moderating temperatures then follow for Friday with seasonable highs in the mid 60s.

The stretch of dry weather continues through the weekend and into early next week with a large area of high pressure dominating the weather pattern. Temperatures will warm up too, with highs generally around 70 on Saturday and 70-75 Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure gradually builds from the west through mid week, with a trough pushing through during the day Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period. W to NW wind close to 10 kt through early morning. NW winds and gusts pick up again after 14Z Wed with G20 kt towards afternoon. The winds will then have more of a northerly component towards Wednesday evening. Direction generally 280-300 true tonight, then veering slightly to around 330 true after 18Z Wed.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may only be occasional before 15Z. Gusts may end earlier than expected late in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday through Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA has been cancelled as winds and seas remain just below criteria overnight. Ocnl gusts up to 25 kt and ocnl 5-ft seas may still be possible in the far ern waters.

The next chance of SCA conditions will arrive Thursday night into Friday. N winds pick up Thursday night as the pressure gradient increases between a developing offshore low and inland high pressure trying to build from the west. Thinking is that gusts probably fall just below advisory thresholds, however swell generated by the offshore low might build ocean seas up to 5 ft by Friday morning, potentially lasting through Friday night. Winds and seas then diminish for the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Keetch Byram Drought Index values are near or above 300 for most of the area. Dry conditions throughout, plus winds gusting to 20-25 mph and RH falling to 30-35 percent mainly in NYC and adjacent spots in urban NE NJ and Nassau County, could promote fire growth and spread Wed afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels will be increasing this week with the combination of higher astronomical tides and incoming swell from an offshore low.
Although it does not appear to be likely, cannot completely rule out brief minor flooding with the high tide cycles for Thursday morning and evening for the S Nassau back bays and the western Sound.
A better chance of widespread minor flooding would be on Friday for these areas, with some spots along the NY Harbor and the south shore of eastern Long Island potentially having minor flooding as well. A less widespread threat then continues on Saturday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.