Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Babylon, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:25PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 10:58 PM EDT (02:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:02PMMoonset 6:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 958 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late this evening, then showers after midnight. Slight chance of tstms late.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely early morning. Chance of rain mid to late morning.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and chance of tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 958 Pm Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches tonight along with an area of low pressure. The low passes through late tonight and exits east Wednesday. A cold front then passes through on Thursday. An associated low will pull away into the canadian maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the west on Saturday. Low pressure will then approach from the west on Sunday and impact the area Sunday night into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Babylon, NY
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location: 40.69, -73.3     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 080206 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1006 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front approaches tonight along with an area of low pressure. The low passes through late tonight and exits east Wednesday. A cold front then passes through on Thursday. An associated low will pull away into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday, followed by high pressure building from the west on Saturday. Low pressure will then approach from the west on Sunday and impact the area Sunday night into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. For this update adjusted database slightly to better reflect latest observational trends. First area of showers has had difficulty holding together as it slides in from the northwest. The batch further upstream should hold together a bit better, as advertised by higher res guidance. The big question is in terms of overall coverage late tonight. For the time being did not adjust POPs and precip coverage as confidence in exact placement of higher POPs and precip is low. Previous discussion follows.

Noting a lack of instability overnight and with Showalter indices just getting to slightly below zero towards the start of the overnight for more SW parts of the region, limited the thunder to slight chance and mainly just for the SW parts of the region.

A warm front will approach from the SW tonight. At the same time, low pressure across the Great Lakes will track along the approaching warm front. Models remain in fairly good agreement with timing of the arrival of rain ahead of the front. Chances of rain begins west of the Hudson, then rain eventually becomes likely further east overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A weak north to northeast flow occurs behind the departure of low pressure Wednesday morning. Plenty of moisture remains beneath 800mb, so clouds won't have much of any chance to scour out. Even after rain chances drop off early in the morning, cannot rule out a chance of an afternoon. This chance will be focused more towards the western zones during the afternoon where models depict convergence along a surface trough just off to our west. Prefer the cooler guidance for high temperatures given the anticipated cloud cover and NE low level flow in the afternoon. Dry weather should then follow for Wednesday night.

A cold front approaches on Thursday and passes through late in the morning/earlier portion of the afternoon. Models in good agreement with rain/showers with this cold front. Shear will be strong and synoptic lift will be deep with the core of a jet streak eventually passing not too far to our south. How much CAPE we actually get ahead of the cold front is questionable as an onshore flow and low level moisture probably starts us off with mostly cloudy conditions. Even with low CAPE, strong lift and shear probably results in a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms moving through. Biggest threat with these showers would be strong wind gusts. Breezy and dry behind the front late in the day into Thursday night. Just a slight chance of mixed rain/snow showers well NW of the city late at night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Reasoning from previous forecasts remains relatively similar, with some changes based on latest guidance that were hinted at yesterday. To start, expect brisk conds on Fri, with isold-sct showers as low pressure pulls away. Inland sections especially the higher elevations could see some snow mixed in during the morning. W-NW winds will be on the brisk side due to the departing low's tight pres gradient, so expect winds at or near advy criteria in the greater NYC metro area and across Long Island, and possibly elsewhere.

High pressure then builds across Sat into Sat night. Guidance shows more nrn stream interaction with a srn stream low pressure system approaching for Sunday into Mon, and so have gone with its slower trend. That guidance is also decidedly wetter and windier, which makes sense given the strengthening offshore high and long S fetch, at least per ECMWF. GFS fcsts a secondary low to develop along the coast which, if it develops, would probably result in a stout E-SE rather than S flow. Given the very good warmth/moisture transport via either a S fetch or enhanced convergence/lift via a secondary low, heavy rain also looks like a good bet, with axis of heaviest rain a little to early to know for certain.

Temps about 5-8 deg below normal on Fri, with highs in the lower/mid 50s, will moderate somewhat on Sat to mid/upper 50s, still slightly below avg. Temps on Sunday/Mon ahead of the approaching low should warm up, with upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday, and 60s to lower 70s on Mon, highest away from the coast.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A warm front approaches overnight and settles over the area early Wed morning, before slowly drifting south during Wednesday afternoon.

Light rain developing with MVFR conditions at most terminals by 6z. There is a low chc of IFR cigs 8-12Z. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be completely ruled out across southwestern most terminals like KEWR, but confidence was too low to put in KEWR TAF. Ceilings should then improve slightly to low end MVFR into Wed morning. Then VFR conditions are likely to return during Wed afternoon, although uncertainty remains with exact timing.

The winds decrease tonight, and will be light mainly under 5 kts into Wed morning. A N flow veers gradually to the NE and E into Wed afternoon with speeds generally 5 to 10 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wed night. Mainly MVFR. Thu. MVFR in the mrng, becoming VFR. LLWS possible in the mrng. Fri. VFR with W winds 20-30kt g35-40kt. Sat-Sun. VFR.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to remain on all waters through Wednesday night.

A cold front will approach the waters on Thursday increasing wind gusts to SCA levels on all waters. Ocean seas will also build, reaching 6-7 feet Thursday night and up to 10 feet on Friday.

W-NW gales may be possible on Friday, especially near shore and also on the outer ocean waters. SCA conds in all waters Fri evening should take some time to diminish, with quiet conds not returning til late day Sat or Sat night.

Increasing S flow between a strengthening offshore high and approaching low pressure may bring SCA conds to all waters Sunday night. Some gale force wind gusts may be possible on the ocean waters late.

FIRE WEATHER. Wetting rains on Thu should help limit fire growth potential on Fri despite string winds and low afternoon RH. With some drying out Sat could be a day of concern, with W winds still gusting to 30 mph and min RH 20-30%.

HYDROLOGY. Just a quarter to half inch of rainfall expected late tonight through Wednesday morning. Same amounts for Thursday's system, but locally higher amounts could be realized. Low chance of minor nuisance flooding on Thursday.

QPF for the low pressure system Sunday night into Mon has trended wetter, with amts of 1-2 inches fcst. This may be capable of causing some minor areal and small stream issues.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High astronomical tides due to the supermoon and a positive tidal anomaly will be factors for the total water level forecast through Wednesday. Winds will not be strong, about a 10 kt onshore flow or less, so tidal piling and wind forcing will not be too much, limiting the coastal flood potential.

Hazards are as follows:

Tonight through Wednesday: Coastal flood statements across much of the shorelines of NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound, and South Shore Bays. The total water level will be around 1/2 to 1 foot above astronomical tides, so about 1/2 to 1 foot of surge during times of high tide. Isolated minor coastal flooding will be the result.

Wednesday Night: Coastal flood advisories for the more vulnerable coastal locations across NY Harbor, Western Long Island Sound, South Shore Bays and SW Suffolk NY. The total water level will be 1 to 2 feet above astronomical tides, so about 1 to 2 feet of surge during times of high tide. Widespread minor coastal flooding will be the result. Other nearby locations such as Eastern Union NJ, Eastern Essex NJ, Manhattan, Bronx, Northern Queens will get close to touching minor coastal flood benchmarks. These less exposed coastal locations have a coastal flood statement for Wednesday night, more of an isolated minor coastal flood situation.

Minor coastal flooding potential remains on Thursday with astronomical tides still being high. There will also be a strong cold front approaching that will bring increased onshore winds during the day. Much lower total water levels occur Thursday night into Friday as winds strengthen out of the west, a stronger offshore flow overall. Any lingering coastal flood threat diminishes rapidly Thursday night.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071-078-177. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ074-075-178-179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ080. NJ . Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ006. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JC/Goodman NEAR TERM . JC/JE SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . Goodman AVIATION . MARINE . JC/Goodman FIRE WEATHER . HYDROLOGY . JC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi74 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 52°F 40°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 26 mi59 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 32°F45°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi59 min SSW 11 G 12 52°F 56°F1006.8 hPa (-1.0)
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 31 mi69 min 7.8 G 9.7 48°F 48°F2 ft1007.3 hPa (-1.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi39 min S 12 G 14 50°F 1006.2 hPa47°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 34 mi59 min SW 6 G 8 52°F 51°F1005.8 hPa (-0.9)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 38 mi59 min 56°F 49°F1006.3 hPa (-1.2)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi59 min S 8.9 G 11 53°F 1006 hPa (-1.2)
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 41 mi59 min S 7 G 9.9 55°F 53°F1006.6 hPa (-1.2)
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 45 mi59 min 58°F 50°F1006 hPa (-1.1)
MHRN6 46 mi59 min SSW 6 G 8.9
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi59 min SSW 5.1 G 7 51°F 50°F1005.8 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY6 mi66 minSSW 810.00 miFair52°F44°F75%1006.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi63 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F43°F77%1006.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmW3W3NW64NW63W8SW11S12S14S14S12S8S9S8SW8
1 day agoNE3CalmN3N6N4N6N8N4N6N9N8N9NE96
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2 days agoSW8S5S7S6S7S5SW6S6S6S6S6S4SE5S5SE6SE6SE8SE9SE8S9SE5SE5E3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Babylon, Long Island, New York
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Babylon
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:36 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20-0.1-0.100.30.50.70.80.70.60.40.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.60.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Gilgo Heading, Long Island, New York
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Gilgo Heading
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:54 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:17 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 10:47 PM EDT     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-00.40.81.21.41.41.20.80.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.20.20.71.11.41.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.