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FXUS63 KILX 022112 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 312 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

A short-wave trough evident on 20z/2pm water vapor imagery over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle will pivot northeastward over the next 24 hours...bringing the next chance for precipitation to central Illinois. Latest regional radar mosaic shows showers breaking out in advance of this feature across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into the Ozarks...and these will continue to spread northeastward and increase in areal coverage this evening. Latest CAMs have slowed precip onset across west-central Illinois by a couple of hours, suggesting scattered showers arriving in the Illinois River Valley between 00z/6pm and 02z/8pm...then reaching the I-55 corridor by around 04z/10pm. Based on the projected track of the wave, it appears the most widespread precip will occur north of the I-70 corridor from mid-evening through early Sunday morning.
Thermal profiles will remain warm enough for rain across most of the area, with a mix of rain and snow along/northwest of a Macomb to Henry line. May see a couple tenths of an inch of snow on grassy surfaces in the Galesburg area, but travel impacts will be very minimal. Rainfall amounts will generally be around one quarter of an inch...but will be less than one tenth of an inch south of I-70. Showers will linger into Sunday morning, then will come to an end by midday...followed by an overcast and dry afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the middle 30s in the Illinois River Valley to around 40 degrees south of I-70.
Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 30s far northwest around Galesburg to 50 degrees south of I-70.

The next short-wave embedded within the progressive flow pattern seen on latest water vapor imagery over Washington will quickly track through the region Sunday night. All models are depicting a compact surface low tracking from eastern Nebraska Sunday afternoon into west-central Indiana by Monday morning. The main differences among the various models are with their thermal fields and resulting precip types. Given extensive cloud cover and a push of slightly warmer air ahead of the low, think the warmer solutions are the way to go. With that said, enough dynamic cooling will occur immediately along the low track to support the potential for a swath of accumulating snow. Latest HRRR Grand Ensemble probabilities for greater than 0.1" range from 40-60 percent along a Quincy to Decatur line...while probabilities for greater than 1 inch are around 40 percent from Quincy to Rushville. At this point, will go with high chance PoPs for a rain/snow mix after midnight. Will need to keep an eye on future model runs to better assess the potential and exact location of a light accumulation of wet snow Sunday night.

Barnes

LONG TERM
(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Yet another short-wave trough will dive out of western Canada into the Great Lakes by late Monday. Strongest forcing and deepest moisture will focus well north of the region, so am only expecting scattered light showers mainly north of I-74 Monday night. After that, dry weather and seasonable temperatures in the 40s will prevail through mid-week before upper ridging pushes temps back above normal in the lower to middle 50s by Thursday/Friday.

Barnes

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

IFR conditions prevail at most of the central Illinois terminals late this morning...with the exception of KSPI where ceilings have risen above 1000ft. Given light/variable winds, low clouds will remain in place today, with a gradual rise to MVFR at KDEC/KCMI as the afternoon progresses. Further northwest, it appears IFR ceilings will persist at both KPIA and KBMI. The next approaching storm system will begin to spread showers into the area from the southwest this evening, followed by steadier rain from late evening into the overnight. Based on latest HRRR/NAM guidance, have introduced light rain at KPIA/KSPI by 02z...then further northeast to KCMI by 04z. The rain will reduce visbys to 1-3 miles overnight before increasing W/SW winds bring improved visibility and an end to the rain by Sunday morning.

Barnes

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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