Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:11PM Thursday October 17, 2019 2:03 PM EDT (18:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:39PMMoonset 10:36AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 146 Pm Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 146 Pm Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strengthening low pressure departs to the north today with high pressure slowly building into the region on Friday remaining through the weekend. Another frontal system affects the area Monday night into midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 171514
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1114 am edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
Strengthening low pressure departs to the north today with high
pressure slowly building into the region on Friday remaining
through the weekend. Another frontal system affects the area
Monday night into midweek, followed by high pressure thereafter.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures, dewpoints, and wind
gusts. Current gusts are not as high as forecast, so lowered
gusts slightly over the next few hours. Despite lower gusts,
wet soil and full canopy on trees still pose a threat. In
addition, we have not reached peak heating for the day, which
would allow higher gusts from aloft to mix down. Will
reevaluate for next update.

As low pressure continues to lift away to the northeast it will
continue to strengthen, tightening the pressure gradient across the
region. Top of the mixed layer on bufkit soundings shows wind gusts
during the afternoon between 40-55 kts. Don't expect winds to gust
this high for the entire day, but peak wind gusts will likely be
in this range.

Today will remain mostly cloudy courtesy of cyclonic flow and cold
advection. With steep low-level lapse rates cannot rule out a
scattered shower, however any additional precip will be light.

The steep low level lapse rates will help mix down higher winds
as well.

Temperatures will be below normal as cooler and drier air filters
in, ranging in the mid 50s to around 60.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
High pressure will slowly build in from the west as the coastal low
moves into the canadian maritimes. Winds will begin to diminish
tonight, but still remain breezy with gusts ranging between 25
and 30 mph, with the strongest winds along the coast.

Otherwise it will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures
dropping into the 40s overnight.

Sunshine returns on Friday as high pressure over the ohio valley
draws closer. It will still be breezy and cool with temperatures
similar to Thursday, in the mid 50s to around 60.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Mainly dry conditions remain with high pressure moving overhead
Friday night into Saturday and offshore Saturday night into
Sunday. Models have trended farther south and east with a low
pressure system for Sunday into Monday. The forecast area will
be on the northern fringe of this possible storm, with slight
chance pops for showers mainly south of long island on Sunday.

High pressure builds down along northeast coast Sunday night
into Monday with a drier forecast for the region with that low
now farther offshore.

Another low pressure system may impact the area Monday night
into midweek as it approaches from the south and west. This will
likely bring a period of moderate to briefly heavy rain but the
exact timing of this is uncertain. The amount of rain is
uncertain as well. Models have exhibited difference with the
position and timing of this system over the last few days. This
will be a secondary low with the parent low moving from the
great lakes into southeast canada. Flow will become more
easterly Monday through Tuesday, advecting in more moisture.

High temperatures outlook features below normal highs Saturday,
near to slightly above normal Sunday, several degrees above
normal for Monday and Tuesday with a return to near normal
values on Wednesday.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
***high impact wind event today***
strong low pressure over new england today will track slowly ne
today.

Vfr is generally expected through the remainder of the taf
period. There is a low chance that CIGS settle around 3000 ft
today, producing periods of MVFR.

Strong winds through 22z with gusts mainly 35-40 kt, but a few
higher gusts up to 50 kt are possible. Directions mainly
270-290 true. Winds diminish gradually tonight, but remain
strong on Friday. Direction on Friday right around 310 true.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

kjfk TAF comments: isolated shower possible. High confidence in
wind forecast. Left of 310.

Klga TAF comments: isolated shower possible. High confidence in
wind forecast. Left of 310.

Kewr TAF comments: isolated shower possible. High confidence in
wind forecast. Left of 310.

Kteb TAF comments: isolated shower possible. High confidence in
wind forecast. Left of 310.

Khpn TAF comments: isolated shower possible. High confidence in
wind forecast. Left of 310.

Kisp TAF comments: isolated shower possible. High confidence in
wind forecast. Left of 310.

Outlook for 12z Friday through Monday
Friday Vfr. NW winds g20-30kt.

Saturday Vfr.

Sunday and Monday MainlyVFR.

Marine
Storm warning remains in effect for all waters through 6 pm tonight.

Gusts slowly diminish tonight but remain at SCA levels into Friday
as a strong pressure gradient remains present. Winds and seas
diminish Friday night. Still probably some SCA wind gusts on the
ocean for Friday night and some 5 ft seas for eastern ocean as
well early, but otherwise below SCA conditions expected.

Winds and seas remain below SCA Saturday through Sunday night
with high pressure in place. Potential for SCA for the ocean
increases thereafter. A complex frontal system approaches
Monday, with an increased east to southeasterly flow developing.

This will allow waves to build on the ocean to 5 to 8 ft over
the ocean waters Monday into Monday night.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... High wind warning until 6 pm edt this evening for ctz005>012.

Ny... High wind warning until 6 pm edt this evening for nyz067>075-
078>081-176>179.

Nj... High wind warning until 6 pm edt this evening for njz002-004-
006-103>108.

Marine... Storm warning until 6 pm edt this evening for anz330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.

Aviation... Dw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi48 min W 25 G 33 57°F 58°F45°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi43 min W 27 G 39 58°F 4 ft45°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi48 min WSW 25 G 37 57°F 32°F44°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi45 min NW 24 G 33 57°F 63°F992.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi51 min WSW 13 G 27 988.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi73 min W 33 G 41 58°F 63°F12 ft992.5 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi33 min W 29 G 39 58°F 64°F993.8 hPa45°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi45 min 57°F 63°F993.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi45 min W 21 G 28 56°F 60°F988.3 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi45 min W 28 G 44 57°F 993.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi45 min W 33 G 39 57°F 60°F994.1 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi51 min 57°F 63°F993.3 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi45 min W 27 G 42

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi70 minW 19 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy56°F39°F53%992.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi67 minW 22 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy58°F41°F53%991.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi67 minW 19 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy59°F39°F48%991 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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1 day ago3NW63SW8SW5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmE6E5E6E7SE12SE16
G21
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2 days agoS7S9S9SW10SW7SW8SW7SW5W3CalmN4N7N10N6N6N3N5N3N3N6N7N8NW4N8

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:11 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.80.70.50.30.1-0-00.10.30.60.81.11.21.10.90.70.40.1-0-0.1-00.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:09 AM EDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.40.30.20.10.10.10.30.60.70.80.80.70.60.40.20.10.10.10.20.40.60.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.