Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:41PM Friday August 23, 2019 2:53 AM EDT (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:48PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1140 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Overnight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Isolated tstms. Showers likely late this evening, then chance of showers late.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1140 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves across the waters through early Friday morning. High pressure then builds to the north Friday through this weekend, and across the canadian maritimes early next week. Low pressure may pass south and east of the local area during Tuesday into Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230543
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
143 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front continues moving through the region early this
morning. High pressure then builds to the north through this
weekend, and across the canadian maritimes early next week. Low
pressure may pass south and east of the local area during the
middle of next week, followed by a slow moving cold front late
in the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Complex of severe thunderstorms that tracked across NE nj, nyc,
and long island associated with an MCV vort MAX has moved
offshore. A cold front is also slowly working its way through
the region and should be offshore early Friday morning. However,
showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through
the rest of the night especially across the southern portion of
the region. The front will be slow to move offshore and there is
support aloft with the region in the right entrance of a 100-120
jet streak across northern new england. Upper level height falls
will also continue through the night as an upper trough axis
moves over the northeast.

The threat of severe weather has ended, but locally heavy
downpours are possible in any showers and isolated storms.

Temperatures will slowly fall into the early morning hours as
cooler air begins to work southward. Some drier low level air
will also begin advecting south as the front moves offshore.

Lows will be in the 60s for most locations.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
Morning showers are possible with an approaching upper level
jet combining with lingering moisture. Although the right
entrance region of this jet will be approaching us through the
day, the drying and stable airmass building in behind the cold
front will counteract this, so dry in the afternoon. Mid and
upper level clouds probably linger however, and chances of a
mostly clear sky improve towards the end of the day. Dewpoints
will be in the 50s so it will feel much less humid than it has
been, and high temperatures end up a few degrees below normal.

Further clearing of the sky occurs Friday night with high
pressure building in. Lows dropping into the 50s for the
northern suburbs and pine barrens region.

There is a moderate rip current risk Friday along the ocean
beaches.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Latest nwp model suite showing good agreement across north
america into early next week. By tue, the global models deviate
significantly off the east coast along with timing and amplitude
differences with a trough cutoff over south central canada and
into the plains.

A dry, cooler and less humid airmass prevails over the weekend
with highs generally in the 70s, which is below normal for this
time of year. As deep layered ridging builds from the west, a
weak cutoff low develops over the northeast. Not expecting any
showers as a result of this with the lack of a cold pool aloft.

However, as the associated sfc high builds to the north across
se canada and increasing easterly flow will develop. This
pattern is indicative of stratus development and possibly some
light rain or drizzle Sun sun night. This feature lifts north
and east on mon, as another low off the carolina approaches.

The energy associated with this low is currently in the bahamas
and needs to be watched over the next several days for tropical
development. Although both the GFS and ec track it well south
and east of the local area mid next week, while the cmc shears
it apart off the coast of florida.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the plains gradually
traverses east through Thu but as mentioned above there are
timing and amplitude differences with this so the timing of the
associated frontal system is uncertain. Temps will increase back
to normal levels Wed and Thu with higher humidity levels as well
due to a southerly flow.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
A cold front will move through the region this morning. High
pressure builds to the north.

MainlyVFR, with scattered showers continuing through 11-12z,
especially coastal terminals. A few MVFR ceilings will be
possible, especially through 08-10z.

Mid and high clouds are expected during the daytime.

Variable winds will become northerly 10 kt or less. North winds
may back to the W NW for a short time in the afternoon, but then
shift back to the N NE by evening around 9-12 kt.

Outlook for 06z Saturday through Tuesday
Late tonight-Saturday night Vfr.

Sunday Vfr, except MVFR possible in a slight chance of light
rain in the afternoon. Along the coast, NE flow 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt possible.

Monday-Tuesday MainlyVFR, except MVFR possible with a
chance of light rain Monday night and Tuesday. Along the coast,
ne flow 10-15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt at times.

Marine
Localized gusts to 25 kt are possible on the ocean with seas
near 5 ft due to outflow from thunderstorms moving across. Have
not issued an SCA as the winds should diminish and seas should
subside below 5 ft through the night.

An offshore flow of around 10 kt or less then maintains sub-
advisory conditions on all waters Friday and Friday night.

Sca conditions are expected to develop on the ocean Sun with
wind gusts possibly continuing into Mon due to a strengthening
easterly flow. Seas will likely remain elevated beyond Mon and
possibly continue through Thu with a potential area of low pres
off the carolina coast track S and E of the waters during the
middle of next week.

Hydrology
Locally heavy showers are still possible through the early
morning hours. Minor flooding is the main impact in any heavier
downpour. No hydrologic impacts are then expected Friday into
next week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc 24
near term... Jc ds
short term... Jc
long term... 24
aviation... Pw
marine... Jc 24
hydrology... Jc 24
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi53 min WNW 7.8 G 12 75°F 81°F71°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi59 min NW 5.1 G 7 73°F 75°F1013.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi59 min NW 1.9 G 4.1 73°F 79°F1012.3 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi63 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 74°F 75°F4 ft1012.8 hPa (+0.0)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi43 min WNW 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 74°F1012.3 hPa71°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi59 min 73°F 77°F1013.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi59 min NW 5.1 G 5.1 74°F 78°F1011.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi59 min W 8 G 8.9 74°F 1013.1 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi59 min W 6 G 8 75°F 79°F1013.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi59 min 73°F 78°F1013.2 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi65 min WSW 5.1 G 8

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi2 hrsW 410.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1013.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi4 hrsWNW 77.00 miRain71°F69°F94%1012.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi4 hrsN 49.00 miLight Rain72°F69°F91%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5----SW4W5SW6W5W7W6W8W10NW9
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1 day ago----SW5S5S4----SW9SW11SW13SW15
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2 days agoCalmN4N5--N3N6N8N7N9NE6N6CalmS8SW7--S8S5S6S4S4S3------

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:14 AM EDT     0.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:10 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:52 PM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.50.60.70.70.60.40.20.1000.20.40.60.91110.80.60.30.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:38 PM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.70.60.40.30.20.20.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.