Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:56PM Monday January 20, 2020 6:41 PM EST (23:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:19AMMoonset 2:21PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 600 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft early, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ300 600 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure build over the waters through Thursday, then retreat to the north on Friday. Low pressure will likely impact the waters on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 202302 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 602 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. A large high pressure system covering the eastern two thurs of the nation will build over the area through Thursday, then retreat to the north on Friday. Low pressure will likely impact the region for the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Clear and cold tonight with NW-N winds diminishing and decoupling inland. This plus some snow pack inland supports lows either at or a couple degrees below MOS, with lower 20s in NYC, teens elsewhere in urban/coastal sections, and single digits inland.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Sunny skies continue, with only few-sct high clouds mid to late afternoon and into Tue night. Temps should recover to levels just under mid winter averages, with highs in the mid 30s for NYC metro and Long Island, and lower 30s inland. Lows Tue night night should be in the lower/mid 20s in NYC and surrounding areas, and mostly in the teens elsewhere, maybe some single digits across interior SE CT and in the Long Island pine barrens.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The long term begins on the quiet side with high pressure remaining over the region. The high retreats to the north on Friday as it situates over Quebec. Dry conditions prevail through Friday with a gradual moderation in temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be slightly below normal in the middle and upper 30s. Temperatures should then average above normal during the daytime as highs reach the lower and middle 40s both Thursday and Friday.

Confidence in a unsettled weekend is increasing, but the specific details regarding timing of precipitation and amounts are still in question. The system is currently over the Pacific is forecast by the models to make its way onshore of the Pacific northwest Tuesday into Tuesday. The shortwave then tracks towards the Plains by Friday as it amplifies. There is good agreement among the deterministic GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC as well as their ensemble means for the shortwave to become a cut-off upper low as the northern stream retreats to the north. The upper low should then gradually track towards the eastern seaboard on Saturday, and potentially over the region on Sunday. Associated surface low pressure develops across the Middle Atlantic and tracks near the region as well.

The large scale pattern is not favorable for a significant wintry event. The track of the upper low and associated surface low will be key to whether or not the interior sees any wintry precipitation. Lingering cold air inland initially may be enough to see some wintry precip, but the consensus of the guidance at this point is for the low to track near or over the region late Saturday into Sunday. Have followed closely to a consensus of the models which yields a mainly plain rain event with a possibility of some wintry precip inland. Highest PoPs are currently Saturday night, but did not get too detailed with timing and specifics since the event is occurring about 6 days out.

The proximity of the upper low Sunday into Sunday night could linger clouds and precipitation through the day. All of the details should be worked out in the coming days, but it is important to note the background pattern currently depicted by the models supports a mostly rain event across our CWA. The upper low should gradually move east of the area early next week.

Temperatures Saturday through Monday should average slightly above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. high pressure over the mid section of the country will gradually build toward the area through mid week.

VFR. Gradually diminishing N-NW flow through tonight. There may be a few occasional gusts to 20 kt early, mainly from NYC and points east. Otherwise, expect winds speeds to remain around 10kt or less.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday night through Friday. VFR. Saturday. Chance of MVFR/IFR in rain, possibly mixed across the interior. E winds 10-15G15-25 kt.

MARINE. Winds and seas have fallen below SCA levels and will continue through Tuesday night.

High pressure over the waters will lead to light winds and seas well below 5 ft Wednesday into Thursday. Ocean seas gradually build Thursday night through Friday as a system passes well offshore. Seas then continue to build on Saturday as low pressure approaches the waters from the west. Winds gradually increase to SCA levels by Saturday.

HYDROLOGY. Widespread precipitation is becoming likely this weekend. Precip amounts are uncertain at this time, and it is still too soon to tell what if any impacts may occur.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/DS NEAR TERM . Goodman SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . BC MARINE . Goodman/DS HYDROLOGY . DS EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi56 min N 9.7 G 14 30°F 4°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi41 min NW 12 G 16 30°F 32°F6°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi53 min NNE 11 G 15 30°F 38°F1027.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi53 min NNW 4.1 G 7 26°F 38°F1026.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi51 min 19 G 25 32°F 45°F4 ft1025.9 hPa (+2.2)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi31 min NNW 14 G 19 32°F 1027.2 hPa9°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi53 min 30°F 43°F1027.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi53 min N 4.1 G 11 26°F 37°F1025.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi53 min NW 14 G 17
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi53 min NNW 13 G 17 30°F 40°F1027.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi53 min 30°F 40°F1027.6 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi53 min NW 9.9 G 15

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi48 minN 310.00 miFair29°F0°F28%1026.9 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi1.8 hrsNNW 20 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy27°F-2°F27%1025.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi1.8 hrsNW 910.00 miFair28°F0°F29%1025.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW9NW14
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1 day agoS10S6S5S8SW18
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SW12SW11W9W10W7W7W6W8W7W7W10NW18NW13
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2 days agoNW16
G20
N13N12N11N10N6NW6N8N7NE4N7N5N6N5NE3E5S6S55S9CalmNE4CalmS10

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bay Shore
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:52 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:21 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:30 PM EST     0.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.30.60.91.11.21.110.70.40.20-00.10.20.40.60.70.70.60.40.20

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:39 AM EST     0.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:21 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:04 PM EST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.20.40.60.70.70.70.60.40.30.10-00.10.20.40.50.60.60.50.40.20.10

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.