Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday July 29, 2021 9:11 PM EDT (01:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:30PMMoonset 11:34AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 849 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely early this evening. Chance of tstms. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 849 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through tonight. High pressure then builds in through Saturday. Low pressure will pass to the north on Sunday, followed briefly by high pressure on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 300102 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 902 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front moves through tonight with a secondary cold front will moving through Friday afternoon. High pressure builds in thereafter through Saturday. The next frontal system and associated low pressure approach on Sunday, moving across Sunday night. The front becomes stationary offshore on Monday as high pressure briefly returns. The front may move back to the west during the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. MCV continues to push across the area this evening. A warm front is also lying just south of Long Island. The warm front may try to advance a bit further north. However, the subsidence left behind the departing MCV should continue to diminish overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms through midnight. The greatest instability continues to lie to our south across central NJ and this is where the most severe weather has occurred earlier this evening.

The main cold front will follow overnight and there could be a few additional showers, possibly a storm, with the cold front passage overnight. There is a broken line of showers with the cold front upstate, but think this should begin to weaken as it encounters the subsidence behind the MCV.

As the shortwave trough moves through tonight and the cold front passes, a brisk NW flow will develop behind the front tonight bringing in generally drier conditions. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A brisk NW flow behind the cold frontal passage will develop Friday morning with generally drier conditions as a high pressure system builds in from the west. With daytime heating and a secondary cold frontal passage moving through during the day, the lower atmosphere should become well mixed resulting in gusty winds of up to 30 - 35 mph through the afternoon and into the evening. Mostly clear skies through the day will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s and low 80s.

Dew points will be falling through the day as strong NW flow advects drier air into the area. Dew points by the evening will likely be in the 50s for much of the area and with clear skies from an approaching high pressure system, some radiational cooling overnight into Saturday morning is possible though a steady wind may prevent significant cooling. Lows will be below average with temperature dropping into the 50s for much of the Interior and low 60s along the coast. Some spots in the Interior may drop into the upper 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Mean upper troughing will be in place for the upcoming weekend. Saturday continues to shape up to be a seasonably cool day with temperatures in the middle and upper 70s and dew points falling into the 40s to around 50. Temperatures could reach 80 degrees in the NYC metro and NE NJ urban corridor. These readings are a bit below normal for this time of year.

The next within the upper trough dives out of southern Canada on Sunday, moving across the Great Lakes region in the morning and afternoon. This energy carves out a shortwave that lifts across New England Sunday night. The associated frontal system approaches during the day and then moves across Sunday night. Have gone below NBM PoPs due to uncertainties in the mesoscale. Global models continue to struggle with potential convective development and any convectively induced vort maxes. This will be important to determining where any wave of low pressure forms along the front. Instability is not impressive, but have left in mention of thunder for now.

The front will be offshore on Monday, but likely become stationary as western Atlantic ridging strengthens. This should adjust the location of the upper trough axis, pushing it across the Ohio Valley down to the southeast late Monday into Tuesday. There are also indications the jet stream flow will become split with the northern stream becoming situated over southern Canada. The southern stream remaining over the eastern states may continue carving out troughing. These features are all uncertain giving the time range and have followed the NBM closely during the middle of next week. The amplification of the western Atlantic ridge will play an important role in how much the frontal boundary retrogrades west. Waves of low pressure could ride along the boundary, but specific details are uncertain at this time. Temperatures should trend close to normal next week.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a convective complex riding along a warm front continue to dissipate and will pass offshore within the next couple of hours. Most if any of the activity will be across Long Island and southern CT.

Spotty MVFR conditions, mainly outside of the NYC terminals will be occasional through the overnight with improvement to VFR by daybreak at all terminals following the passage of a cold front.

S winds 10-15 kt with g20-25kt along the coast early will quickly diminish and gradually veer overnight ahead of the cold front. Cold front will pass through after midnight from NW to SE, passing offshore by daybreak. NW winds around 10 kt following the cold frontal passage, will ramp up, especially between 12-15Z, with gusts 20-25 kt. A few higher gusts will be possible in the afternoon.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Occasional MVFR ceilings through around 06Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday. Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower. NW winds G25kt late day/evening. Saturday. VFR. Sunday. Mainly VFR with chance of showers . mainly at night. Monday. VFR. Tuesday. MVFR or lower with a chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds may end up close to SCA levels west of Moriches inlet tonight, but should be more frequently 25-30 kt east of there. There will be a brief time Friday morning of winds 20 kt or less before a stronger NW flow sets up after a secondary cold front passage. Gusts 25-30 kt are expected with ocean seas building to 4-6 ft. Conditions should fall below SCA criteria by Sat AM.

Sub-SCA conditions are likely Saturday through early next week with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place.

HYDROLOGY. While showers/storms are possible tonight, no additional hydrologic issues are anticipated.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches again on Friday despite offshore flow, due to residual 3 ft S swell. There is a low risk of rip currents on Saturday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . DS/MW NEAR TERM . DS/MW SHORT TERM . MW LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . DW MARINE . DS/MW HYDROLOGY . DS/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi41 min SSW 14 G 23 74°F 80°F72°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi71 min SW 14 G 19 74°F 71°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi56 min SSW 19 73°F 70°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi53 min WSW 17 G 20 73°F 1008.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 15 73°F 74°F1007.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi31 min 16 G 18 72°F1008.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi31 min SSW 19 G 23 74°F1007.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi53 min 72°F 74°F1008.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 42 mi71 min SSE 19 G 27 73°F 74°F3 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi53 min SSW 21 G 24 73°F 75°F1008.9 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi53 min SSW 11 G 15 71°F 1008.5 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi53 min WSW 8 G 9.9 74°F 1009.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi53 min 71°F 76°F1008.9 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi53 min SW 8 G 13

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi18 minS 1210.00 miOvercast72°F68°F87%1008.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi75 minS 13 G 215.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist73°F72°F96%1008.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi15 minS 97.00 miLight Rain73°F68°F84%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6S4S3S4S4SE3CalmS4S5S6S7S10S9S10S12S12S15
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1 day agoW8N8N4SE3NW6NW9W3NW4W4N7N7N11N11N8N10NE115
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2 days agoSW6SW5SW5W3CalmNW3NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W5SW7SW6S11S12S10S11SW9SW10SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
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Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:46 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:04 PM EDT     0.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:14 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.80.90.90.80.60.40.1-0-000.20.50.70.90.90.90.70.50.30.100.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:07 AM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:54 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.80.70.60.50.30.20.100.10.30.40.60.70.70.70.50.40.30.20.10.20.30.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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