Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Shore, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:27PM Monday December 9, 2019 9:21 PM EST (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 5:11AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 621 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Tuesday...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain until early morning, then chance of rain late. Patchy fog this evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ300 621 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach tonight into Tuesday and will move across late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak low pressure develops along the front offshore slowing down its eastward progress Wednesday. Another low pressure trough approaches Wednesday before strong arctic high pressure builds over the waters Wednesday night through Thursday. The high moves off the northeast coast Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the southwest Friday and moves through the area Saturday and Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Shore, NY
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location: 40.72, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 092347 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 647 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach tonight into Tuesday and will move across late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak low pressure develops along the front offshore slowing down its eastward progress Wednesday. Another low pressure trough approaches Wednesday before strong arctic high pressure builds into the region Wednesday night through Thursday. The high moves off the northeast coast Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the southwest Friday and moves through the area Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure builds Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. A warm front north of the area will weaken and eventually dissipate tonight. The region is in a larger warm sector of a low pressure system of which the parent low will be moving into Southeast Canada. The associated cold front will be approaching the region through tonight.

Aloft, the mid levels show nearly a steady height tendency with a strong shortwave pivoting into the Great Lakes.

Rain continues this evening, moderate to heavy at times, before becoming more intermittent and lightening overnight into Tuesday morning. This evening, the rain could bring down some higher winds, but keeping gusts below 35 mph for the most part as inversion aloft limits mixing. Without any surface instability and elevated instability as diagnosed from forecast Showalter Indices showing slightly positive values, removed thunder from forecast.

Temperatures will not drop too much tonight, making for minimal diurnal temperature trends. Forecast lows are from the mid 40s to lower 50s using a consensus of model guidance.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The short term will feature the rainfall ahead of and along the cold front Tuesday into Tuesday evening as well as the mixing with and changing to snow behind the cold front later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

For this timeframe, used mostly a consensus of raw model temperatures with some slight adjustments downward for Tuesday night and Wednesday when colder air will be advecting into the region on more of a northwest flow.

In the upper levels, a jet streak will be approaching and will move in with its right rear quad by Wednesday morning, before moving farther northeast. Mid level shortwave trough will be approaching Tuesday and then move across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with the most positive vorticity advection staying north of the region. The most forcing for lift will be late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

At the surface, the cold front approaches Tuesday and moves across late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Rain continues through the day which could again be moderate at times. Precipitation lingers behind the cold front for Tuesday night into Wednesday and models have been pretty consistent showing potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow for much of the area, 3 to 4 inches across the interior, which is reflected in the current forecast. Initially, the changeover from rain to snow will be limited with accumulation especially if it is light as ground temperatures will be above freezing. The snow accumulation occurs Wednesday morning when much of the region is at freezing or below. Some slight rise in temperatures expected during the day, low to mid 30s.

While the amounts of snow forecast are 1 to 4 inches, the timing puts this during the Wednesday morning commute, making for potentially hazardous travel conditions due to slippery surfaces and reduced visibilities.

Weather becomes drier Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with a slow decrease in clouds as the shortwave trough starts to lift north of the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Wednesday night through Thursday night the guidance is in good agreement with arctic high pressure building over the region and then departing off the northeast coast. Well below normal temperatures are expected Wednesday night and Thursday. The upper flow becomes nearly zonal through Thursday night. Differences then develop with the next shortwaves impacting the area Friday into Saturday night. Split flow is expected to develop and the timing, and strength, of the northern and southern stream shortwaves differs. Regardless, the southern stream wave remains dominant, with warm advection increasing ahead of a developing warm front. The best chances at this time for snow and/or a rain snow mix will be across the interior Friday morning. Then timing of the warm up will determine the changeover to rain. Along the coast rain is expected. A lot of uncertainty remains with the strength of the northern stream shortwave and the interaction with the southern stream wave later Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is much farther to the north and deeper than the ECMWF with the northern stream.

High pressure and colder weather returns Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front over the Midwest will slowly approach the area through 18Z Tuesday.

IFR or lower conditions expected through the overnight hours in rain. The bulk of the rain should come to an end between 05-07Z, but drizzle could linger through daybreak. Showers then return ahead of the approaching front Tuesday morning, with another round of steady rain expected Tuesday afternoon. Some improvement is possible Tuesday afternoon, although conditions are still expected to remain MVFR at best.

Visibility through the overnight hours may be lower than indicated by the TAFs, especially once the steadiest precipitation comes to an end. Too much uncertainty in this scenario remains to include in the TAFs at this time.

S winds 10-15 kt expected tonight, with gusts up to 25 kt possible, primarily at city and coastal terminals. LLWS at all terminals through tonight. Winds shift to the SW at around 10 kt during the day on Tuesday, then WNW by the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday night. Winds shift to the NW behind the cold front. Rain transitions to snow from northwest to southeast. Wednesday. IFR or lower possible in snow in the morning, improving to VFR late. Thursday. VFR Friday. MVFR possible in developing rain. Friday night-Saturday. IFR in rain or a wintry mix. LLWS possible.

MARINE. No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Gale warning in effect for all ocean zones through tonight. SCA remains in effect for non-ocean waters through tonight. For Tuesday, SCA conditions remain on the ocean and continue through Tuesday night. SCA remains on much of the ocean Wednesday before dropping below SCA mid to late Wednesday afternoon west of Moriches Inlet.

SCA in effect for all waters. Main push of stronger winds to the east today, and gusts in S-SW flow getting close but not quite to 35 kt except on the ocean E of Moriches Inlet this afternoon. Gale warning starts on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet this afternoon. Rest of ocean, gale warning starts tonight. Gales remain on ocean until Tuesday morning and SCA remains on non-ocean waters until Tuesday morning. Gales subside Tuesday with SCA remaining on the ocean. Tuesday expected to be below SCA on non-ocean waters.

Increasing, and gusty, northwest flow develops Wednesday night behind departing low pressure. Marginal SCA conditions are expected to develop on the ocean waters Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning.

With high pressure moving across the waters Thursday and departing Friday sub advisory conditions are expected. Then east to southeast winds will increase ahead of the next low pressure system moving in from the southwest Friday night. Once again, marginal SCA wind gusts are expected on the ocean waters Friday night through most of Saturday, while ocean seas will build significantly Friday night into Saturday.

HYDROLOGY. Long duration rainfall event continues through Tuesday evening before mixing with and changing over to snowfall late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Total liquid equivalent remaining is between 1 to 2 inches.

Nuisance/poor drainage flooding may occur tonight when the heaviest rain falls but otherwise no other flooding is expected.

The next significant rain of up to an inch is expected Friday night through Saturday. Timing and rainfall amounts may change, so hydrologic impacts are uncertain at this time.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JM/MET NEAR TERM . JM/MET SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . FEB MARINE . JM/MET HYDROLOGY . JM/MET EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 8 mi51 min SSW 19 G 23 51°F 39°F51°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 24 mi91 min SSW 14 G 21 53°F 1 ft52°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 28 mi51 min S 12 G 16 50°F 32°F50°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 29 mi51 min SW 12 G 14 51°F 44°F1008.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 32 mi57 min SSW 8 G 14 52°F 44°F1007.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 33 mi31 min SSW 25 G 29 56°F 50°F9 ft1008.4 hPa (-3.4)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 35 mi31 min SSW 19 G 25 53°F 7 ft1008.9 hPa52°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi51 min 53°F 46°F1008.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi51 min SSW 13 G 16 50°F 41°F1007.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 44 mi51 min SW 14 G 17 54°F 1008.3 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 44 mi51 min SW 15 G 19 55°F 41°F1008.4 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 48 mi51 min 53°F 46°F1008.3 hPa
MHRN6 49 mi51 min SSW 8.9 G 12

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY9 mi28 minSW 15 G 232.00 miRain Fog/Mist55°F53°F93%1008.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi85 minS 90.75 miRain Fog/Mist53°F53°F100%1009 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi85 minSSW 13 G 196.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist56°F54°F93%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7CalmS4SW3SW5CalmCalmN4CalmE3S11
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1 day agoNE3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5S7S9S9S9S6S6S5S6S5SW4
2 days agoNW12NW14NW12NW15N11NW13NW10NW9NW5NW4NW8NW11NW13N11NW12NW9N13NW9NW10W5W7NW5NW6N5

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York
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Bay Shore
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:09 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:44 AM EST     1.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:19 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM EST     0.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-000.20.40.70.91.11.110.80.50.30.1-0-00.10.30.50.70.70.70.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fire Island Radiobeacon, Long Island, New York
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Fire Island Radiobeacon
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:10 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:16 AM EST     0.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:19 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:39 PM EST     0.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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000.10.30.50.70.70.70.60.50.30.20.100.10.20.40.50.60.60.60.40.30.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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