Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jersey City, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms this evening through a portion of Monday morning may produce locally heavy downpours. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is the main concern, but a localized flash flood risk exists close to the coast.

2) Dry with near normal temperatures Monday night through Wednesday before the next chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
High pressure shifts offshore through this afternoon. A warm front gradually approaches from the southwest with warm advection increasing into the evening. Most of the daytime will be dry, but a shower cannot be ruled out late in the afternoon well north and west of the NYC metro.

Ahead of the warm front this afternoon will be a decaying convective complex moving out of central/eastern PA into the region this evening. The complex will likely just be an area of showers as it races ahead of the greatest instability axis, which will reside well to our south and west. While an isolated heavy downpour or thunderstorms is possible within this complex, most of the showers will be on the moderate to light side. The majority of this activity will most likely occur across the western half of the area, so parts of SE CT and eastern LI may remain mostly dry through the first half of the night.

The warm front will then make its closest approach to the southern portion of the area overnight into early Monday morning. A weak wave of low pressure is still progged to develop along the warm front and then move over or just south of the area late tonight into Monday morning. This will support the development of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
Instability should increase somewhat, but will be dependent on how far north the warm front and the resulting track of the low.
If the low and front remain south of Long Island, showers may end up mostly on the moderate side with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm/heavy downpour, mainly confined to the southern half of the area. If the low and front end up further north over or just north of Long Island, the showers and a few thunderstorms, could be locally heavy at times, especially across portions of the NYC metro, Long Island, and southern CT.

PWATs should be able to climb to around 2 inches. However, the progressive nature to the system along with limited instability should prevent anything more than minor/urban poor drainage flooding and a localized flash flood risk. The risk of any localized flash flooding would most likely end up late tonight/early Monday morning when the warm front and low pressure are closest to the area. WPC has trimmed back the marginal risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding to include only NE NJ, NYC metro and western Long Island. This is supported by continued trends in all deterministic global, AI models, and the latest CAMs. Average rainfall amounts range three tenths across interior Lower Hudson Valley to one half to three quarters most elsewhere. An inch is possible across eastern Long Island. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out in any heavier downpours.

There is no severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon and evening. The limited instability should keep the threat minimal overnight/Monday morning. However, will have to watch near and along the warm front/low pressure late tonight/early Monday if instability were to increase more than currently forecast.

Any lingering showers across E Long Island and SE Connecticut should end around mid Monday morning. A trailing cold front/surface trough will move across the area late in the day, which may be enough to support scattered shower and isolated thunder development. The higher probability (chance) resides inland and across NE NJ and NYC metro. Cannot rule out a brief locally heavy downpour. Further east the chances are much lower due to subsidence from behind the passing low pressure.


KEY MESSAGE 2
High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the middle of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Models continue to come into better agreement with the next shortwave trough and associated cold front moving over the northeast late Wednesday night into Thursday. Much of the energy and lift may pass well to the NW, limiting potential for showers/thunderstorms. However, there is still some ensemble spread which is captured well with the NBM. PoPs increase late Wednesday night and continue in the chance range through Thursday afternoon.

Uncertainty is much higher for the end of the week/start of next weekend. High pressure may build over the northeast, but the front that moves through Thursday may stall to our south. Some of the guidance hints at a few waves of low pressure riding along the front. It remains to be seen if any unsettled weather will occur heading into next weekend. The current NBM precip probabilities indicate a slight chance on Friday and chance next Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure moves offshore as a frontal system approaches from the west this afternoon. The frontal system impacts the terminals late this afternoon through Monday morning.

VFR through much of the day. Chances for MVFR increase late this afternoon, mainly after 21Z, into this evening along with the chance for showers. MVFR and SHRA will continue through tonight. IFR is likely for more outlying terminals, especially after 6Z, with less confidence for the NYC terminals. Indicated this uncertainty in a PROB30 for the NYC terminals. SHRA ends early Monday morning from 13-16Z, however MVFR/IFR cigs will continue into Monday morning and possibly into early afternoon.
More outlying terminals may remain IFR/MVFR through the day Monday. Low confidence of thunder and will leave out of the TAF.

Winds increase out of the S this afternoon at around 10-15kt with gusts from 20 to 25 kt, mainly along the coast, into the evening and possibly overnight. Winds will shift to the west and then northwest after 12-15Z Monday, later at eastern terminals.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts and MVFR could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.

Timing of showers could be off by a few hours compared to TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Afternoon: MVFR possible with the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Chance for showers and MVFR at night. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening.

Thursday: A chance of showers with MVFR possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
S flow gradually increases today as the high moves offshore.
This will yield potential for 25-30 kt wind gusts on the NY harbor, ocean, and south shore LI Bays. Winds on LI Sound and eastern LI Bays should remain just below SCA levels. 25 kt wind gusts may linger on the ocean into Monday before subsiding in the late afternoon. Seas will also build into this evening, reaching 5- 7 ft tonight into early Monday. Seas subside Monday afternoon and evening. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels Monday night through Thursday with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place.

Rip Currents: For today, the rip current risk is moderate for NYC, Nassau and western Suffolk ocean beaches and low for eastern Suffolk ocean beaches remains low into this eve at ocean beaches. Seas will be slow to build and may only reach around 3 ft late in the afternoon for western Beaches.

For Monday, the rip current risk is moderate for NYC and Nassau ocean beaches and high for Suffolk ocean beaches. Seas will be subsiding to 3 to 4 ft for Nassau and NYC ocean beaches with a light offshore flow developing through the day. At Suffolk ocean beaches, residual 5 ft seas are expected to continue for much of the day. This could lower to moderate if the higher seas subside faster than currently expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ355.