Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jersey City, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Areas of black ice may develop into tonight and lead to hazardous travel conditions.

2.) Snow is expected on Sunday. In general, 2-4 inches is expected, although locally higher amounts are possible depending on the exact track of the storm. Eastern portions of the area are favored for the heaviest snow based on the expected track of the low, although some mixing with rain is possible near the shore in these areas. It is possible that light snowfall rates will limit accumulations across western portions of the area, even though it may snow much of the day.

3.) Cold weather is expected Monday through Friday with the coldest period Monday night through Tuesday night, with sub freezing highs Tuesday. No record cold expected through the period.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Low pressure continues to advance into Quebec with an attendant cold front moving through locally. Winter Weather Advisories for the first shot of snow this weekend have been allowed to expire. The rain and snow have tapered as the frontal boundary works east, and conditions briefly dry out this evening into first half of the night. Temperatures fall back into the 20s for most, or lower 30s around the NYC metro, and given the wet roadways and light surface flow, areas of black ice may form and lead to hazardous travel conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2
The modeling is converging on a soln tracking low pres E of the benchmark around 00Z Mon. A first round of snow is possible as the jet approaches in the mrng. This could produce an inch or two of snow, especially from CT swwd into NJ where there is modeled to be a bit deeper moisture. As low pres begins to deepen offshore during the day, the pcpn field should begin to evolve into a broad band of snow as it begins to pivot then exit the cwa. Track favors mainly snow, although some mixing with rain LI and especially the forks possible before the heavier pcpn develops. The wrn edge of this pcpn may be too light to accumulate much, so this is where there is the greatest uncertainty with amounts. All but wrn Passaic and Orange have been included in an advy. If the storm trends wwd, will have to include these areas. If a wwd trend does occur, other areas will likely require an increase in amounts. Max potential with this sys looks to be 4-8 inches, but this is expected to be well east of the cwa attm.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Not much change with this portion of the fcst today. Cold weather will remain across the region next week, with, temperatures remaining below normal much of the time. The coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night as Canadian cold air moves into the region behind a cold frontal passage Monday night. Temperatures during this period will be as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Despite the anomalously cold air no records are expected to be set. And with windy conditions Monday into Tuesday, wind chill values will remain higher than cold weather advisory criteria. For Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will be near normal to near 5 degrees below normal. Another shot of cold air moves in for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures both days remaining right around or below the freezing mark. There will be minimal chances of light snow and/or light rain Thursday into Friday as weak low pressure systems pass near the region.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low pressure developing along the Southeast coast late tonight will track northeastward through Sunday.

Still seeing some MVFR cond at many of the outlying terminals north/west of the NYC metros including KTEB, mostly vsby restrictions. MVFR vsby should expand westward into KISP as well.

Have made some adjustments with 03Z amendments as it appears snow may arrive slightly later than originally forecast, and also remain more on the light side, with IFR instead of LIFR vsby except at KSWF. KISP now likely to see a rain/snow mix for a time in in the afternoon. Snow may pick up in intensity after 22Z-23Z, with occasionally moderate snow and LIFR vsby.

Mostly light/variable flow overnight should becoming light E-NE early Sunday morning, backing N-NE during the afternoon.

Snow accumulations should generally be 2-4 inches, except 1-2 inches at KSWF.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday night: Snow with IFR/LIFR cond before midnight at most terminals, gradually improving to MVFR/VFR from west to east after midnight. Snow with IFR cond should hang on at KGON until 08Z-09Z.

Monday: VFR. WSW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of light snow, maybe snow/rain along the coast, with MVFR or lower cond. SW-W winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters due to elevated seas. Late tonight the Advisory comes down for the western ocean zone but remains for the central and eastern ocean zones through Sunday.

There will only be a brief lull Sunday night before seas and winds start to increase on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected much of next week for the ocean waters and Monday and Tuesday for the non-ocean waters.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Sunday for CTZ005-009.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for CTZ006>008-010>012.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Sunday for NYZ068>075-176>179.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for NYZ078>081.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Sunday for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.