Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jersey City, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:31PM Monday December 16, 2019 4:40 AM EST (09:40 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 11:58AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 419 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S early this afternoon, then becoming E around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of flurries this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 419 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the region will slide offshore to the northeast tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A polar cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds into the region through Friday, then moves off the northeast coast. Low pressure passes to the north Saturday. Weak high pressure returns for Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jersey City, NJ
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location: 40.72, -74.05     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 160936 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 436 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the region will slide offshore to the northeast tonight. A low pressure system will impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A polar cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds into the region through Friday, then moves off the northeast coast. Low pressure passes to the north Saturday. Weak high pressure returns for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. High pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually slide east today as a mid level trough approaches from the west. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower through the morning as low pressure and its associated warm front approaches.

The first challenge will be how much precip actually is able to make it into the area this afternoon with lingering dry air and surface ridging across the northeast. Most high resolution models are indicating only some light precip initially until the high pushes further offshore. Temperatures will be cold enough that any precipitation that falls today will be in the form of flurries or light snow showers.

Highs today will be in the 30s area wide.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will continue pushing offshore by this evening allowing for a surge in moisture. With better lift near the region from the approaching warm front, precip is projected to become more widespread. Precipitation should start off as snow everywhere, before quickly transitioning to a rain/snow mix then to all rain across NYC, Long Island and northeast NJ. The interior is expected to remain a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

The biggest challenge will be the ptype as warm air begins to move in aloft creating a warm nose. If the warm nose is large and/or the sub- freezing air near the surface is very shallow, we could end up with more freezing rain than sleet. It is likely that precip type will vary at times overnight as moderate or heavy precipitation will cool the column sufficiently changing the precip to sleet or snow at times.

With the uncertainty that remains in precip type, no changes to the winter weather advisories were made. This was mainly due to the low confidence in ice accumulation forecasts along the coast. Either way, it looks like the Tuesday morning commute will be impacted by a wintry mix which may warrant an advisory with future updates based on impacts.

Snowfall totals across the interior will range between 1-2 inches with ice accumulations of up to 1 tenth of an inch. Across northeast NJ, NYC Metro and Long Island less than an inch is expected, however there is a signal that a quick burst of snow could develop shortly after midnight when there is greatest lift enhanced by a low level jet. Rainfall totals will range from 0.5-1.00" where temperatures are expected to stay warmer.

Precipitation ends pretty quickly as the low pulls away Tuesday evening.

Lows tonight into Tuesday morning will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A wave of low pressure will continue to track quickly to the east Tuesday evening with any remaining light rain and wintry precipitation ending in the early evening. There remain some timing differences in the guidance with the GFS and NAM quicker while the ECMWF keeps some precipitation behind the low longer. With the progressive flow have leaned toward the quicker solutions.

Weak surface ridging builds Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However, with the quick flow, a rather strong vort is expected to move into the northeast associated with a polar front and closed upper low. Much of the energy will pass to the north however light snow or flurries will be possible across the area Wednesday afternoon into the evening with the polar front. With little moisture could be more flurries, so will have only slight chance probabilities. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal Wednesday night through Thursday night as core of the polar air tracks through upstate New York and southern New England.

Ridging builds and remains through Friday, as temperatures modify. Another system passes to the north Saturday and Saturday night. With little moisture will again be many snow and rain showers, or flurries and sprinkles.

Weak ridging returns, Sunday into the beginning of next week, with near zonal flow, and temperatures returning to near normal levels.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure over the area will drift offshore Monday. Low pressure will approach on Monday.

W-NW winds should gradually diminish to under 10 kt overnight, then as the high passes east winds should become light generally under 5 kt out of the SW-S in the afternoon, then NE-E by evening.

Clouds should start to lower/thicken late in the overnight into Monday. MVFR conds likely to develop mainly after 23Z. For the NYC metro and coastal terminals, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain, KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain.

Timing of precip and MVFR conds uncertain by a couple of hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Late Monday night. IFR or lower likely. For the NYC metro and coastal terminals rain, for KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N winds G20kt in the afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday and Friday. VFR.

MARINE. Small Craft seas will remain on the far eastern ocean through 11AM. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through Monday night.

SCA seas return on the ocean Tuesday in advance of the next system with elevated seas and wind gusts increasing to 30 kt. Winds diminish Wednesday. The remainder of the forecast waters will remain below SCA levels.

As a polar cold front moves through the waters Wednesday night, with a wave of low pressure passing to the north. Strong and gusty winds develop with gale gusts likely on the ocean waters, and small craft advisory gusts across the remainder of the forecast waters Wednesday night and Thursday. SCA conditions are then expected on the ocean waters Thursday night as winds and seas diminish.

Sub advisory levels winds and seas are expected across all the waters Friday and Saturday.

HYDROLOGY. Remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT with a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

A widespread precipitation event today through Tuesday will a liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.00 inches. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

No significant precipitation is expected Tuesday night through the weekend.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>070. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ002-103. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . CB/19 NEAR TERM . CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . 19 AVIATION . JE/Goodman MARINE . CB/19 HYDROLOGY . CB/19 EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 2 mi53 min 34°F 43°F1023.4 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 4 mi53 min N 7 G 9.9 35°F 1023.3 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 8 mi53 min 35°F 42°F1023.6 hPa
MHRN6 8 mi59 min NW 8 G 8.9
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 16 mi53 min NNW 11 G 13 35°F 43°F1024.2 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 18 mi53 min NW 9.9 G 12 36°F 43°F1023.9 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 20 mi41 min W 7.8 G 12 35°F 32°F20°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 30 mi56 min W 12 G 16 35°F 20°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 30 mi41 min NW 14 G 18 38°F 1023.8 hPa (+1.4)22°F

Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York City, Central Park, NY6 mi50 minVar 510.00 miA Few Clouds34°F15°F46%1022.8 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ6 mi50 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F18°F52%1023.5 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ10 mi50 minNNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds32°F16°F52%1023 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY10 mi50 minNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F17°F48%1023.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi50 minNW 1310.00 miOvercast35°F17°F48%1023.5 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ16 mi48 minWNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy33°F17°F52%1024.2 hPa
Morristown Municipal, NJ20 mi66 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F19°F60%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWR

Wind History from EWR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN9N4N7N4N7NE5N6NE6NE4E4SE7S13SW19
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2 days agoN6N7N6N6N5NE8N5N6N7N8N7N8N7NE7NE5N8NE11NE8N11N11N13N12N11N10

Tide / Current Tables for Jersey City, Con Rail RR. Ferry, Hudson River, New Jersey
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Jersey City
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:01 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:05 AM EST     4.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:56 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.22.110.2-00.31.32.844.64.94.74.131.60.6-0-0.30.11.22.43.33.8

Tide / Current Tables for Hell Gate (East River), New York Current
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Hell Gate (East River)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:13 AM EST     -4.82 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:38 AM EST     3.49 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:57 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:42 PM EST     -4.91 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:18 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:09 PM EST     3.34 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.2-2.9-4.3-4.8-4.6-4-2.71.12.73.43.532-2-3.9-4.8-4.9-4.5-3.6-21.82.93.33.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.