Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Babylon, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Hazardous wind chills continue into early this morning.

2) Light snow/wintry mix possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

3) Temperatures continue below normal through the end of the week, though not as cold.

4) Chance of rain or snow late next weekend into the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
High pressure continues to build in from the west while low pressure shifts farther offshore. WInds will continue to weaken this morning but given temperatures in the single digits and low teens, the wind will allow wind chills to be as low as -10 along the coast to -15 inland. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 10AM.

KEY MESSAGE 2
The next chance of precipitation comes late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the passage of a frontal system. A warm front pushes north through the area Tuesday with a cold front quickly following Tuesday night. Aloft, heights start falling late Tuesday with the approach of a shortwave after an upper level ridge axis shifts east.

QPF overall looks light. Any precipitation should form in the form of snow, though with temperatures becoming more marginal along the coast ahead of the cold front, it's possible for coastal and southern areas to mix with or see light rain showers or light sleet, mainly for parts of northeast NJ, NYC, and Long Island. Latest forecast has up to an inch of snow for eastern CT and eastern LI with with western areas possible not seeing any snow.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Mean upper trough will remain across eastern Canada into the Northeast, keeping the area below normal. However, it will be warmer than the recent stretch of cold weather that began the last week of January.

On the heels of a cold frontal passage, Wednesday will feature the arrival of another shot of cold air and gusty NW flow (up to 25 mph). High pressure over the Midwest will then build east through the upcoming weekend. Expect highs mainly in the lower to mid 30s, with lows in the teens inland and the lower 20s at the coast. The coldest days will be Thursday and Friday with temperatures about 5 to 8 degrees below normal. Some warming to near normal temperatures is possible by the weekend, though confidence at this time is low and dependent on any low pressure systems.


KEY MESSAGE 4
Both the dynamical and AI global models continue to show a wide range of solutions and run to run variability of low pressure impacting the east coast late next weekend into early next week.
The cross polar flow we have seen of late becomes cutoff as the southern branch of the polar jet becomes dominant across the lower 48 during this time. In addition, short term signals AO, NAO, PNA all showing a breakdown of the blocking pattern that has kept the area unseasonably cold and stormy over the western Atlantic. Low track will be critical with marginally cold airmass in place.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure builds over the region into tonight.

VFR.

Winds back NW this afternoon, speeds 10-15 kt with a few lingering 20 kt gusts east of NYC terminals, before becoming WNW and lightening further after 21Z. Flow then goes light and variable tonight, persisting through Tuesday morning, then turning southerly later in the day. A few snow showers are possible at KSWF mid to late Tuesday afternoon, with an outside chance of flurries or snow showers for coastal terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

A brief snow shower possible after 18Z Tue, confidence in occurrence too low to include in TAF at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday PM: Mainly VFR, MVFR possible with low chance of light snow or wintry mix through early evening.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25kt.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean and a Freezing Spray Advisory is in effect for all waters except the South Shore Bays, though the non-ocean waters fall off early this morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected by late this afternoon or tonight for all waters.

SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday night in a NW flow following a cold frontal passage. Winds and seas subside Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds in from the west.

CLIMATE
Record Low Temperatures for Mon Feb 9:

KEWR: -14/1934 KBDR: 5/1963 KNYC: -15/1934 KLGA: 7/1979 KJFK: 8/1979 KISP: 5/1967

The record lows for Central Park and Newark above represent the all time record lows for those sites. Temperatures are not expected to fall to those levels.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350- 353-355.
Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.