DISCUSSION
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Visible satellite only shows some diurnally-driven cumulus over southeastern portions of the area, with mostly clear skies across the rest of the area. Smoke concentration is also on a decreasing trend, reducing some of the hazy skies that have plagued the area over recent days.

Saturday will be similar to today, and is actually expected to be the coolest day until AT LEAST late next week. Regardless, the expected high temperatures in the 90-98 degree range would still be a few degrees above normal. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over western Nebraska in response to a shortwave aloft. The local area will remain dry during the daytime, but many short term models are now showing some of this activity moving through Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Storms will be on a weakening trend, and many areas will miss out entirely, but some small PoPs were added to account for this potential.

The warming trend begins on Sunday, with portions of Kansas and SW Nebraska reaching 100 degrees. This warmth, combined with increasing wind speeds aloft, will provide an environment favorable for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon through Sunday night (MUCAPE 1500-3000J/kg and 30-40kt bulk shear). That said, storm coverage is still pretty quite uncertain, with many models keeping most (or all) of the forecast area dry. The broad "Marginal" Risk from SPC seems appropriate at this time, though this could be upgraded if confidence in coverage increases.

Heading into the workweek, the main story is the heat. Tuesday and Wednesday are still expected to be the warmest days. On these days, there is a high likelihood of reaching advisory criteria (heat index 105+) for at least parts of the area, and southern zones could even approach Excessive Heat Warning criteria (110+).

A shortwave provides some low chances for rain/storms Wednesday into Thursday, along with possibly a minor cooldown. That said, global ensembles still favor slightly above normal temperatures into next weekend and hint at another heatwave for the following week (Aug 4-8). This continued heat, along with a lack of precipitation may lead to rapid onset drought in some areas.
Based on the 12Z EPS ensemble, the chance for anything more than 0.50" of rain through the next 10 days is low (10-40%).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected the TAF period.

Mainly southerly winds will prevail through the period. Wind speeds of 10 to 15 kts are expected this evening and overnight, increasing shortly after sunrise Saturday morning to 15-20 kts sustained with gusts to around 25 kts. Late Saturday morning, winds will increase slightly with gusts of 25 to nearly 30 kts, persisting through the end of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear through the TAF period with a few cirrus clouds moving in Saturday afternoon.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.