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FXUS63 KLBF 030003 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 603 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages in short term:

*Chance of light snow Sunday morning

*Strong winds Sunday morning and afternoon

Key Messages in the long term:

*Above average temperatures beginning next week



SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

The main concern in the short term will be possible snow showers Sunday morning and strong winds. As a disturbance moves into the area from the NW, mainly affecting northern Nebraska. Ensembles seem to be in consensus that some very light snow showers, generally around a Trace to less than half an inch of snowfall will move in early Sunday morning, however there has been some discrepancy on the exact location of the snow showers as they are expected to be rather scattered in nature. For this reason have kept PoPs generally around 30 percent or less with a broad area of coverage. Disturbance is fairly quick moving and the system should be well east of the area by Sunday afternoon. Any snow that does accumulate is expected to melt by the afternoon as highs will reach the 40s. Timing of the snow will only be a brief time period when hourly temperatures will be below 36 degrees, so would expect greatest snowfall threat before 11am CT, after that temperatures will be well above freezing and any precipitation will fall as light rain showers.

Along with the potential snow showers, there will also be breezy winds on Sunday. Forecast soundings show a good consensus in stronger winds moving in by sunrise and blended with the 90th percentile for winds Sunday. Winds gust of 35 to 40 mph will be possible by Sunday evening, with the strongest winds across western and southwest Nebraska. This could also create areas of patchy snow, so although snow amounts may not accumulate to much, there could be impacts in the morning hours as the snow is falling, with blowing snow reducing visibility. Any blowing impacts should be brief and confined to the morning hours as snow should melt by afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 401 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

A ridge builds in across the western CONUS early next week and begins to spread east, centering over the central US by mid- week. This will help to usher in above average temperatures starting Monday with highs in the 50s. Temperatures continue their warming trend with the warmest temperatures of the week on Wednesday where highs will be 20 degrees or more above normal. See Climate section for more information. There are hints of a system moving in towards the end of the long term which will cool temperatures back down trending closer to normal high temperatures for this time of year and could even bring some more precip chances. Will continue to monitor the system in future forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 549 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

There is a chance for light snow Sunday morning. At this time have left the mention out of the forecast for both taf sites, KVTN and KLBF as the exact location of where snow showers will form is still uncertain and coverage will be isolated to scattered. Winds will be gusty starting Sunday morning out of the northwest around 15 to 20 kts with gust of 30 kts or more. Winds remain strong through the afternoon.

CLIMATE
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Unseasonably warm temperatures will start early this upcoming week with highs around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Wednesday, December 6th will be the warmest day of the forecast period with highs around 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Although highs will be unseasonably warm, at this time forecast highs are still below record temperatures, which were set back in 1939. Below is a table of record highs for our 4 climate sites for Dec. 6.

December 6

| Fcst. | Avg. | Record | North Platte | 63 | 44 | 76 (1939) | Valentine | 64 | 42 | 73 (1939) | Broken Bow | 61 | 39 | 77 (1939) | Imperial | 66 | 44 | 79 (1939) |

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
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