Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorefield, NE

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Dry conditions persist across central and western Nebraska. Following the front that moved through last night, today has been quite blustery and much cooler with temperatures almost 20 degrees lower than yesterday. Cool high pressure continues to build down and settle over the region tonight, allowing winds to diminish and expect our dry conditions will allow temperatures to radiate well overnight.
Probabilistic guidance is showing good coverage of better than even chances for temperatures at or below 36F tonight, and some recent deterministic guidance shows at least pockets a bit cooler.
With this in mind will issue a Frost Advisory for the entire region to support what vegetation is still actively growing this late into the season. Note that with good cooling, temperature measurements of 36F several feet above the ground may result in temperatures on plant surfaces at ground level near freezing which can damage vegetation even if no frost can form in the dry air.

The center of high pressure will drift off to our east tomorrow and allow brisk southerly winds to start bringing warm air back to the region. This will start to increase fire weather concerns by Friday afternoon from the western sandhills into the panhandle. Specific details can be found in the fire weather section below. Highs tomorrow will generally be in the 70s, though readings will be closer to 80 up near the Pine Ridge. Lows Friday night will range from the middle 40s southwest to middle 50s further to the northeast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in moving an upper trof through the High Plains Saturday followed by development of an amplified pattern with a large ridge dominating the western half of the country.
This will continue to be a dry pattern with precipitable water values running at or below long term means through the period. This will also continue to be a warm pattern as temperatures aloft remain close to the upper percentiles.

The upper trof moving through the High Plains will push a strong cold front down through Nebraska on Saturday with gusty south winds ahead of the front and gusty northwest winds behind the front. Temperatures ahead of the front will surge into the middle 80s to near 90 degrees, but timing of the front will determine when the cooler air starts moving in so the best potential hot temperatures will generally be south of Hwy 2. The potential for dry and windy conditions Saturday will be problematic for fire conditions so details can be found in the fire weather section below.

Cool high pressure brings a brief return to temperatures close to normal Sunday before the building ridge pushes temperatures aloft back into the upper percentiles through mid to late next week with probabilistic guidance showing a netter than even chance for temperatures well above normal from Monday onward.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Main concern will be expected winds with a shift to southerly for the bulk of the forecast. Gusts may approach 20 to 30 knots, strongest at VTN during the afternoon. Winds may be slow to wane in the evening, with sporadic gusts continuing and the potential for LLWS.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024

By Friday afternoon probabilistic guidance is showing an 80 percent chance for southerly winds gusting at or above 30mph form the northern panhandle into the northern sandhills. While guidance is less enthusiastic in depicting low humidity with only a 20 to 30 percent chance for RH at or below 20 percent, some deterministic guidance shows potential for deeper mixing and lower humidity by late in the afternoon. Given the very dry antecedent conditions, gusty winds, and potential for low RH will issue a Fire Weather Watch for fire zones 204 and 208 where confidence in strong gusty winds is highest and monitor closely to see if later guidance indicates further eastward expansion becomes necessary for tomorrow. Humidity recovery Saturday night will be modest to poor north of Hwy 2 with gusty winds continuing so the Fire Weather Watch for zones 204 and 208 will continue through Friday night.

On Saturday, very warm and dry air will surge up on gusty south winds ahead of a cold front entering Nebraska from the northwest with RH dropping into the teens to around 20 percent across all of central and western Nebraska by Saturday afternoon, though there is uncertainty in the exact timing of the front and the associated wind shift to the northwest. Guidance shows up to a 70 percent chance for gusts at or above 35mph ahead of the front generally up around Hwy 20, though winds at or above 25mph will have a better than even chance extending south to about Interstate 80. Behind the front there is a better than even chance for northwest winds at or above 25mph across the entire region with the best potential for northwest winds at or above 30mph west of Hwy 83 and north of Hwy 2. Given these probabilities for gusty winds and low humidity a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from late Saturday morning into early Saturday evening for all fire zones in Central and western Nebraska.

Thereafter, persistent warm and dry conditions will continue to bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions to central and western Nebraska each day through the middle of next week.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Friday for NEZ004>010- 022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for NEZ204-208.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NEZ206-209-210-219.