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FXUS63 KLBF 061123 AAA AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service North Platte NE 523 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

KEY MESSAGES

-Much above normal temperatures are expected today and Thursday.

-Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday.

-Temperatures cool back to near normal Friday into this weekend.

-Slight or low chance for light precipitation across southwest Nebraska Friday and Friday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Upper level ridging will translate eastward from the Rockies and cross the central CONUS today through Thursday. Downslope Chinook flow strengthens today with H85 temperatures in the process of warming. By dawn they should be in the 13-16C range and remain there through Thursday. Boundary layer mixing will help the warmer air aloft mix to the surface today. Highs all areas will be much above normal...in the 60s. Humidity values will drop into the 20-25% range across portions of western into southwest Nebraska this afternoon.
Winds however are expected to remain relatively light which will limit fire weather concerns today.

As the upper ridge translates eastward Thursday a shortwave approaches the Northern Plains from the west. A surface low will deepen across North Dakota through the day ahead of the wave. A Pacific cold front will pivot southeastward across the area Thursday afternoon on the backside of the surface low. H85 wind speeds increase to around 40kt Thursday afternoon behind the front, and Wind gusts of 40-50 mph appear likely across western Nebraska in a deeply mixed environment. The frontal passage will promote the deep mixing area wide as it moves southeast across the area during the late morning and afternoon. With such warm air aloft expect a very mild day as this air is easily mixed to the surface. Highs well into the 60s are likely...with perhaps some ares touching 70F. Humidity values will drop to around 20-25% across the Sandhills, western and southwest Nebraska during the afternoon as drier air advects into the region. Fire weather concerns will increase Thursday afternoon due to the combination of strong winds, low humidity and warm temperatures. Winds decrease some Thursday night but remain gusty.
Humidity recovery is decent but not great. In fact, portions of southwest Nebraska only recover to around 55%. Further details are located in the Fire Weather section below.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

A cooler Pacific airmass will advect into the region Friday behind the departing cold front. This results in near normal temperatures returning. A secondary cold front will surge southward through the area Friday night. Canadian air will mix in behind this front with highs Saturday expected to be a few degrees below normal. Wind increases once again Friday night into Saturday morning as this second front passes. The combination of strong pressure rises and cold air advection will aid in the sponger winds. Gusts of 35-40 mph appear possible from late evening though mid-morning Saturday. Winds decrease slightly Saturday afternoon but don't really go down till Saturday night. Have maintained the slight to low chance pops across southwest Nebraska Friday into Friday night. A potent but positively tilted shortwave will cross the region during this time. The positive tilt will tend to shunt much of the moisture east of our area. As a result, any precipitation will be very light and scattered at best.

Northwest flow aloft develops Sunday and continues into the first of next week. A couple of weak shortwaves and associated cold fronts will be pass within the flow. Temperatures appear they will mostly remain near normal during this time with dry weather continuing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

A surge of very dry air, both aloft and at/near the sfc will move into Nebraska this morning. VFR should be widespread across wrn and ncntl Nebraska today and tonight. Other than patchy river valley fog this morning and perhaps Thursday morning, the risk of MVFR or lower flight conditions is very low, near zero.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Fire weather concerns this afternoon are fairly modest. The reasons for this are as follows, winds will be light at 5 to 15 mph, very good humidity recovery between 70 and 90 percent occurred Tuesday night and humidity this afternoon drops to 20 to 25 percent across just parts of southwest Nebraska and the southern Panhandle.

Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across much of wrn Nebraska Thursday afternoon. The concern is humidity around 25 percent for a few hours and west winds gusting 35 to 45 mph. There is a chance stronger gusts will develop, possibly as high as 55 mph, but it's too early to make the call on this.

The forecast follows the model consensus which shows gusts to 45 mph are likely along and west of highway 61, and gusts to 35 mph will reach as far east as highway 83. Wind speeds should diminish with the approach of sunset late in the afternoon. Humidity is expected to recover to 40 percent by nightfall.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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