Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorefield, NE
October 3, 2023 3:23 PM CDT (20:23 UTC)
Sunrise 7:40AM Sunset 7:23PM Moonrise 8:52PM Moonset 11:45AM
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 031826 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 126 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Key Messages:
- Models and forecasters alike appear to be in good agreement with severe storms firing across swrn/scntl Nebraska this afternoon.
- The best chance for the first freeze of the fall season continues to be Saturday morning when skies will be clear, winds light and the core of a Canadian high pressure system will be drifting through cntl Nebraska.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Models and forecasters alike appear to be in good agreement with storms firing across swrn/scntl Nebraska this afternoon. The forecast thunderstorm chances follow the NAMnest, HRRR and RAP models. This places the best storm chances along and east of a line from North Platte to O'Neill. Storm activity should exit east of ncntl Nebraska by 00z-01z this evening. There are no other rain chances after this evening in the short term forecast.
The 50-65kt 500mb jet sweeping in from the srn Rockies, steepening lapse rates associated with height falls from and upper low across the nrn Plains and PWAT 1.25-1.40 inches should support a significant hail threat. The focus is a Pacific cold front predicted to move east through swrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon.
Pacific high pressure will continue building through the wrn U.S.
and Nebraska Wednesday and Wednesday night. The models suggest the potential for high clouds at times from a plume of upper level moisture circulating through British Columbia and the nrn Rockies.
Otherwise, weather conditions will be tranquil. The short term model blend plus bias correction suggested lows mostly in the 40s tonight and Wednesday night. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s are in place Wednesday.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
The models continue to track a strong Canadian high pressure system south through the Great Plains later this week. The high pressure system will begin forming across AK tonight and is the result of systems from the Bering Sea and Siberia merging. The high pressure will strengthen to around 1034mb across wrn Canada and then sail south to be located over scntl Nebraska Saturday morning.
As this reinforcing high moves in late Thursday night and Friday morning, the models show an area of midlevel FGEN forming but just the SREF, CMC and ECM produce rainfall. The GFS and NAM are dry. The forecast continues to carry a chance POP Thursday night. The expected cloud cover should limit low temperatures to above freezing but a small window for freezing temperatures could develop across nwrn Nebraska where clearing is possible.
The best chance for the first freeze of the fall season continues to be Saturday morning when skies will be clear, winds light and the core of the high pressure system will be drifting through cntl Nebraska.
In the wake of the first freeze Saturday, an upper low will form across ern NAM leading a block across the cntl U
S
The models advertise short wave ridging and moderating temperatures across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The forecast is dry Saturday and beyond.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Thunderstorms will quickly form this afternoon for areas near and east of HWY 83, with brief MVFR CIGs and gusty, erratic winds anticipated. These storms will quickly exit the area off to the east through this evening.
A cold front pushes through the area this evening, with a wind shift from southerly to northwest, at around 10 to 15kts.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 126 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Key Messages:
- Models and forecasters alike appear to be in good agreement with severe storms firing across swrn/scntl Nebraska this afternoon.
- The best chance for the first freeze of the fall season continues to be Saturday morning when skies will be clear, winds light and the core of a Canadian high pressure system will be drifting through cntl Nebraska.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
Models and forecasters alike appear to be in good agreement with storms firing across swrn/scntl Nebraska this afternoon. The forecast thunderstorm chances follow the NAMnest, HRRR and RAP models. This places the best storm chances along and east of a line from North Platte to O'Neill. Storm activity should exit east of ncntl Nebraska by 00z-01z this evening. There are no other rain chances after this evening in the short term forecast.
The 50-65kt 500mb jet sweeping in from the srn Rockies, steepening lapse rates associated with height falls from and upper low across the nrn Plains and PWAT 1.25-1.40 inches should support a significant hail threat. The focus is a Pacific cold front predicted to move east through swrn and ncntl Nebraska this afternoon.
Pacific high pressure will continue building through the wrn U.S.
and Nebraska Wednesday and Wednesday night. The models suggest the potential for high clouds at times from a plume of upper level moisture circulating through British Columbia and the nrn Rockies.
Otherwise, weather conditions will be tranquil. The short term model blend plus bias correction suggested lows mostly in the 40s tonight and Wednesday night. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s are in place Wednesday.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
The models continue to track a strong Canadian high pressure system south through the Great Plains later this week. The high pressure system will begin forming across AK tonight and is the result of systems from the Bering Sea and Siberia merging. The high pressure will strengthen to around 1034mb across wrn Canada and then sail south to be located over scntl Nebraska Saturday morning.
As this reinforcing high moves in late Thursday night and Friday morning, the models show an area of midlevel FGEN forming but just the SREF, CMC and ECM produce rainfall. The GFS and NAM are dry. The forecast continues to carry a chance POP Thursday night. The expected cloud cover should limit low temperatures to above freezing but a small window for freezing temperatures could develop across nwrn Nebraska where clearing is possible.
The best chance for the first freeze of the fall season continues to be Saturday morning when skies will be clear, winds light and the core of the high pressure system will be drifting through cntl Nebraska.
In the wake of the first freeze Saturday, an upper low will form across ern NAM leading a block across the cntl U
S
The models advertise short wave ridging and moderating temperatures across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The forecast is dry Saturday and beyond.
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023
VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Thunderstorms will quickly form this afternoon for areas near and east of HWY 83, with brief MVFR CIGs and gusty, erratic winds anticipated. These storms will quickly exit the area off to the east through this evening.
A cold front pushes through the area this evening, with a wind shift from southerly to northwest, at around 10 to 15kts.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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North Platte, NE,
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