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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorefield, NE

February 17, 2025 4:02 AM CST (10:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:32 AM   Sunset 6:21 PM
Moonrise 11:40 PM   Moonset 9:38 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Area Discussion for North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 170503 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1103 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow spreads across the region from the west tonight and persist through Tuesday with potential for several inches of accumulation.

- High confidence in dangerously cold conditions with wind chills approaching 30 below zero at times across all of central and western Nebraska through Thursday morning.

- A significant warming trend begins this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows sunshine fading behind increasing clouds moving in from the west. By tonight we start to get into some isentropic lift with low level southerly flow sharpening a baroclinic zone/warm front across Nebraska as high pressure builds to the north and aids development of substantial mid level FGEN and deformation. This will develop an initial round of snow in a narrow band that will spread eastward from the panhandle and across central Nebraska Sunday night through Monday night. Following somewhat of a brief lull on Monday, another good surge of mid level forcing will accompany a good surge of short wave energy moving through the flat upper trof with another round of accumulating snow Monday night through Tuesday.

There is high confidence in multi-day accumulations of roughly 5 to 8 inches mostly in a band from the northern panhandle through the sandhills and into south central Nebraska with lower amounts both further northeast and southwest. Timing differences are problematic as some locations experience the bulk of accumulations in the first round, some in the second round, and some getting in on both rounds. Given the nuances of timing and locations of snowfall and the expectation that impacts will be diluted due to the long duration of accumulations, have painted with a broad brush and expanded the Winter Weather Advisory in both time and space to encapsulate the event into Tuesday evening, though further changes to the Advisory in time and space are still possible. Will be monitoring trends in later guidance across the central sandhills closely since this is where the best potential resides for impacts from both rounds of snow.

Lows tonight range from 5 above southwest to 5 below northeast with wind chills generally 10 to 15 below zero, though readings north of Hwy 2 will be colder than 20 below zero especially through Monday morning so have issued a Cold Weather Advisory to cover this period of dangerous cold.

A short wave kicker moving through the quasi zonal flow in the base of the flat upper trof aloft will finally push the frontal boundary southward and open the doors for arctic air to move in as very cold high pressure builds southward from Canada. This will result in highs Monday ranging from the teens southwest to around zero northeast, followed by our first taste of arctic conditions Monday night with lows generally 10 to 15 below zero and wind chills 20 to 30 below zero or colder. With this in mind have issued a long duration Extreme Cold Watch through midday Thursday and will assess the potential for upgrading to warnings or advisories as later guidance arrives. Highs Tuesday only range from around 10 west to the single digits east with wind chills still around 10 below.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Some lingering light snow/flurries will persist Tuesday night into Wednesday though any additional accumulations will be light. However the primary concern through the upcoming week is continued good agreement in guidance for extreme cold across all of central and western Nebraska as a dome of very cold arctic air settles over the region. By Tuesday night temperatures aloft will drop to near the lowest percentile, and will not rise above the lowest 10th percentile until the end of the week. EFI/SoT guidance continues to show a near unanimous signal from its constituent members with high confidence for both high and low temperatures to be significantly below normal with dangerous cold through Thursday. The probability for overnight lows of 20 below or colder peaks Wednesday night at better than 60 percent, especially east of Hwy 83. near 100 percent

The probability for overnight low temperatures 15 below or colder is well above 50 percent Tuesday and Wednesday nights for the majority of the region but especially north of I-80, while highs on Tuesday and Wednesday struggle to rise above zero north of Hwy 2 and only reach the single digits above zero to the south. Thankfully the probability for wind/gusts over 20mph is less than 20 percent, but there will still be enough wind stirring to generate very dangerous wind chills of 30 below or lower just about each night and into the early morning hours each day through Thursday. As previously mentioned will continue the long duration Extreme Cold Watch through midday Thursday and will assess the potential for upgrading to warnings or advisories as later guidance arrives.

There is light at the end of this cold tunnel as conditions will finally begin to improve by Friday with a strong signal for temperatures trending above normal through next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

Snow will continue through the overnight across western and north central Nebraska including the KVTN and KLBF terminals.
Visibilities will drop less than 2 miles at many locations and IFR conditions will exist tonight through Monday. Cigs will also be low around 1500 AGL or less at times. Winds will be out of the southeast to east around 5 to 10 kts tonight, increasing to 10 kts with gust up to 20 kts by late Monday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ004-005-008-009-022>029-035>038-057-059-094.
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for NEZ004>010-094.
Extreme Cold Watch from late Monday night through Thursday morning for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ058-069>071.


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