Moorefield, NE Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorefield, NE

March 4, 2024 1:32 AM CST (07:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:09 AM   Sunset 6:39 PM
Moonrise 3:11 AM   Moonset 11:49 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moorefield, NE
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Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 040517 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1117 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue for much of the region as Red Flag Warnings remain in effect until early this evening.

- Elevated fire weather concerns continue Monday and Tuesday, but limited winds Monday and humidity remaining above critical levels Tuesday preclude greater concerns.

- A mid-week disturbance will reintroduce cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances. For now, confidence in precipitation type and amounts remains low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

A fairly impressive surface pattern is setting up across the central CONUS. Negative tilt troughing is tracking north and east across the Northern High Plains of Wyoming into Montana. Strong height falls, upper-level divergence from the left exit region of a strong 120+ knot h3 jet, and DCVA are helping drive a deepening surface low located near the Red River of the North. Extending south from this is a dryline feature stretching across Iowa into eastern Kansas and a strong cold front dropping east off the higher terrain of Wyoming/northern Colorado. It's this latter feature that brought a surge of dry air and the strong winds that were observed in the region here today. As of 20z, peak winds ranged from the upper 30s to lower 50s mph. This occurred within a compact surface pressure gradient and rapid pressure rises overspread western and central Nebraska. The dry air the arrived was denoted by dew point values falling below zero for many as deep mixing tapped into dry h85 and h7 air where specific humidity values fell below the 5th percentile at both levels in NAEFS climatology. Upstream observations showed h7 dew point values at RIW (Riverton, WY) and SLC (Salt Lake City)
falling below the 25th percentile in their respective upper-air sounding climatology. This is the air that worked into western and central Nebraska, quickly allowing relative humidity values to fall to critical levels. Add in strong h7 flow nearing 40 to 50 knots and h85 flow exceeding 50 knots for some and all the pieces were coming together for a widespread critical fire weather day, even with mid- level clouds hampering temperatures somewhat. Winds have decreased this afternoon as the belts of stronger flow shift east so conditions aren't as concerning as they were 3 to 6 hours ago, but we're not out of the woods just yet. Strong gusts continue across northern Nebraska (focused north of Highway 2) and will likely persist through early this evening. As such, will maintain the Red Flag Warning for the entire forecast area through the inherited end time of 6 PM CST / 5 PM MST. A secondary increase in winds are likely late this afternoon and evening across the eastern Panhandle into southwest Nebraska as a secondary cool front shifts south. It's this that will introduce the potential for sprinkles and/or flurries to much of the area tonight. Forecast soundings show deep mid-level saturation but with cloud bases nearly 2km AGL and low-level dry air to the tune of 0-2km average humidity of 50% or less, finding it hard to believe much if anything will reach the ground. Did opt to insert a mention of sprinkles/flurries but no impacts are expected from this. Lows tonight will still remain on the mild side with values in the low 20s northwest to around 30 degF south and east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

Monday/Tuesday...Compact mid-level flow overhead will support a belt of stronger winds aloft. This will provide support for lee-troughing along the central and southern Rockies as Canadian high pressure noses into the northern Plains for Monday. Flow aloft will diminish Tuesday as broad troughing across much of Canada moves north.
Temperatures each day Monday and Tuesday will settle in the 40s to low 50s which is near to slightly above normal for early March. Fire weather concerns will diminish Monday due to decreasing winds and on Tuesday due to increasing afternoon humidity minimums. While NBM 90th percentile wind gusts for the day show 25+ mph gusts across the Panhandle into southwest Nebraska, hourly guidance shows these occur in the early morning hours and wane by midday as h85 flow decreases to less than 20 knots. A pseudo-cool front late Monday into early Tuesday will likely provide the focus for some light precipitation across our western zones. Increases in fgen around h85 to h7 should be enough to produce some light rain/snow showers. Temperatures will toe the freezing line with surface wet bulb temperatures expected to be in that zero to three below zero range. Went ahead and inserted some Slight Chance (< 20%) PoPs with a mix of rain and snow, closely resembling the NAM raw output. Exploring NBM statistical guidance shows even that even the more bullish output such as the 90th percentile paints a half inch of snow or less so the thinking impacts from this are likely to be negligible. Any precipitation will quickly lift north and east leaving the daytime dry for Tuesday. Winds will be strongest in the morning but diminish by the afternoon to less than 25 mph and with forecast humidity minimums remaining above critical levels outside of Zone 209, no fire weather headlines are expected. Even with critical humidity in 209, weak winds will preclude greater concerns.

Wednesday through Friday...troughing across the west CONUS will gradually shift east bringing a period of cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances to the region. There will be two features to monitor: the first will be a disturbance translating east near to immediately north of the US/Canadian border and the second a trough across central and southern California that will be a slower progression across the Desert Southwest and onto the central and southern Plains. The first of these features will drive the development of a modest surface low over the northern Plains with a developing lee trough extending from western South Dakota down through New Mexico. Ahead of this feature, southerly flow will increase with a deepening surface low southwest of the local area.
This low will begin to track east-northeast with the favorable area for deformation passing in close proximity. Precipitation chances will quickly increase late Wednesday into early Thursday. Without a tap of Artic air, the system will likely need to produce its own cold and so any potential for snow appears to be brief. For now, NBM's broad-brushed Ptype outlook shows rain transitioning to snow early Thursday and decreasing by midday Friday. Deterministic global model solutions suggest a max of 24 hour potential for snow with the GFS the most aggressive in this thinking. The ECMWF is more progressive and further south with placement of any mid-level lift therefore depicts less snow over a shorter timeframe. Plenty of details will need sorted out but the threat for snow returning to the forecast bears watching. Though cooler air does indeed work in, daytime temperatures are likely to be marginally supportive of any wintry impacts with forecast highs still in the 40s. Trough axis should clear by late Friday, bringing an end to precipitation chances and returning the area to dry conditions.

Saturday and beyond...main mid-level energy departs to the east out of the central and southern Plains and is quickly replaced with shortwave ridging. As ridge axis approaches from the west, it'll deamplify as a series of northern stream disturbances track across the northern Rockies. No local influence from these features are expected and NBM guidance shows quickly increasing temperature values within all ensemble members. Values at the 50th percentile increase from the low 50s on Saturday to the upper 60s/low 70s for Monday and Tuesday. NBM deterministic output is slow to match this climb but believe it'll catch up over the next few forecasts.
Towards the early part next next week, variability in extended guidance differs slightly. For now, overall upper-level pattern supports more zonal flow and limited potential for any large scale system to impact the area so for now, dry conditions are anticipated until nearer the middle of the week when more southwesterly flow develops locally.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024

VFR will continue through the forecast period for western and north central Nebraska terminals. Mid/high level clouds will continue to thicken overnight as a cold front sweeps through the area. Little to no precipitation is expected, although winds should transition to northerly and may briefly gust. Ceilings lift by mid-morning, then gradually drop again late evening across the north when a few light snow showers are possible.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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