Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Patchogue, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Monitoring progress of impressive Mesoscale Convective Complex just south of Long Island. The main line of storms may graze or move over eastern Long Island and potentially southeast Connecticut in the next few hours. Gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain are possible with this activity. Lightning may also occur away from the heaviest rain as impressive symmetrical cold cloud tops down to -62C are overhead.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Additional chances for shwrs and tstms on Thu as the upr trof and embedded shrtwv energy lingers in the area. Stuck with the NBM timing here, but if activity is robust early in the day as the NAM suggests, there could be limited action in the aftn where the airmass is worked over. However, if a mrng round doesn't develop, more extensive activity seems more likely in the aftn hours. A bit cloudy with onshore flow, so high temps 70s and 80s with max apparent temps mainly in the 80s.

As the upr trof axis passes E of the CWA Thu ngt, decreasing chances for rain. With lgt llvl flow, moisture will remain in place resulting in a humid ngt.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Messages - Showers and thunderstorms are a daily concern through Monday, thanks to a lingering boundary and plenty of moisture from the onshore flow. Western forecast areas are at the greatest risk, as daytime heating will boost instability.

- The greatest uncertainty in the forecast period, particularly for temperatures and PoPs, remains Sunday through Monday. This is attributed to the varied handling of a weak frontal system by the ensembles.

- Next week, temperatures are expected to warm up, reaching the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. ML guidance is hinting at a low (10-30%) threat for severe weather that will need to be monitored, along with a frontal system late in the week.

No major changes made to the NBM.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A stationary frontal boundary remains near the terminals through tonight.

Mainly VFR to start with a complex of showers and thunderstorms mainly impacting Long Island and southeast CT terminals through 09z. Additional showers are possible elsewhere through much of the morning hours. IFR or even LIFR is possible at KISP and KGON. MVFR is otherwise expected around day break, but confidence in it prevailing is low so have gone with tempos at most sites except east of the NYC metros.

VFR is anticipated this afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Have left the PROB30 in place for NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley terminals this afternoon and early evening.
Coverage however may end up more isolated. Conditions should lower tonight with MVFR most sites and IFR or LIFR possible east of the NYC metro terminals.

Mainly light winds this morning. A light W or SW flow may develop at NYC terminals after day break but winds should gradually become S-SE late morning into the afternoon remaining under 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TSRA expected to stay east early this morning.

MVFR may prevail this morning and could linger a few hours longer than in TAF this afternoon.

Some variability in wind direction is possible throughout the TAF period as wind speeds will overall be light.

Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: MVFR or lower possible.

Friday - Sunday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the NYC terminals with MVFR possible.

Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Outside of tstms, winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls thru Thu. A weak pressure gradient into the upcoming weekend will keep winds and seas below SCA levels.

HYDROLOGY
There is a risk for mainly minor urban and poor drainage flooding thru Thu with rounds of shwrs and tstms expected. Although not currently modeled, if the heaviest bands of rain set up over the more flood prone areas of NJ and the urban corridor, there will be a more substantial flash flood risk there.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate rip current risk is forecast today and Friday due to to incoming 3-4 ft/7-8s swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.