DISCUSSION
A shortwave disturbance has resulted in yet another round of overnight convection across northern Utah. This will continue to eject through northeast Utah this morning, with an additional cluster of cells noted across east-central Utah.
Otherwise, drier air has started to spread into Utah. Latest PWAT analysis shows between 0.5 and 0.7 inches across southern and eastern Utah, while a pocket of 0.8 to 1 inch remains in place across northwest Utah.

Southwest flow will increase today as one final shortwave disturbance approaches the area, on track to ripple through northern Utah this evening. Ahead of it, expect convection to continue to develop across northern and portions of eastern Utah through the day, with CAPE/shear supportive of some stronger storms, with gusty winds being the main threat. Breezy to windy conditions will be in place across southern and central Utah today, given good mixing, 25- 30kt H7 flow, and tightening southwesterly pressure gradient. The drier air across southern and central Utah today will combine with these winds to create critical fire weather conditions.

Convection will wind down this evening as drier air spreads north and the shortwave disturbance exits the area. Utah will remain under a dry southwest flow pattern into the middle of next week, effectively bringing an end to our stretch of daily convection. Gusty southwest winds will maintain a threat of critical fire weather conditions across southern and central Utah through Sunday, albeit less extensive compared to today as winds will be a bit weaker.

High pressure is likely to build back into the area for the second half of the week, with good agreement among various ensembles.
Underneath this high pressure, temperatures will trend warmer again.
NBM probabilities show the chance of 100F temperatures at SLC rapidly increasing from 3% on Wednesday to greater than 65% for Friday through Sunday. Meanwhile, midlevel moisture is also forecast to slowly creep into the area during this time. Initially, isolated, high-based, diurnal showers and thunderstorms are possible across southern Utah around Thursday, then gradually increase in coverage through the weekend.

AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail for the KSLC terminal through the period. Early morning showers will dissipate by sunrise with clearing skies through the day. Southerly drainage winds will transition to a northerly lake breeze during the afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR conditions will prevail for all of the airspace through the period. Morning showers across the north will dissipate and give way to clearing skies throughout the day. Southerly winds will increase throughout the day with gusts ~30 mph across central and southern Utah. These winds will weaken during the evening.

FIRE WEATHER
Drier air is spreading into southern and central Utah today while moisture lingers across northern Utah. A weather disturbance crossing the area today will maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours across northern and portions of eastern Utah where enough moisture remains in place. The dry airmass will then spread through northern Utah for tomorrow, with this dry pattern remaining over Utah through the first half of the coming week.

Increasing southwest flow today will combine with the dry airmass across southern and central Utah to create critical fire weather conditions. Although winds are expected to decrease slightly for tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue across southern and central Utah, but perhaps to a lesser extent.
Winds will continue to slowly trend weaker through the early part of the week, but marginal or isolated critical fire weather conditions remain possible, with these conditions potentially spreading into the northern Utah mountains.

High pressure will rebound over the area for the latter part of the week. As it does so, temperatures will gradually trend warmer across the area while moisture starts to increase. This will not be a significant moisture surge yet, so expect convection to gradually increase each day, generally high-based and exhibiting diurnal trends and terrain influence.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ482>484-488-489-492>498.

WY...None.