Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakley, UT
November 29, 2023 4:31 AM MST (11:31 UTC)
Sunrise 7:28AM Sunset 5:02PM Moonrise 6:46PM Moonset 10:05AM
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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FXUS65 KSLC 291049 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 349 AM MST Wed Nov 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
A weak upper level disturbance will cross the Desert Southwest through Thursday morning. A series of stronger, more impactful systems will impact the region Friday through early next week, with significant mountain snow and the potential for valley snow, particularly across northern Utah. Persistent valley inversions should improve by Friday morning.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Friday)...Valley inversions continue to be the main story for the short term forecast period. Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates upper level ridging continuing to shift east while a weakening upper level low approaches the central California coast. Already noticeable is the active northern jet and associated jet max next up in line behind the previously mentioned upper level low.
Widespread stratus is noted across the western Uinta Basin, across portions of the Great Salt Lake and the west desert between Ibapah and Dugway. A brief period of dense fog developed over the northern part of the Salt Lake Airport terminal, however a weak downvalley/downslope component developed and shunted this area of fog/stratus back over the lake. This evolution continues with the fog/stratus noticeably shifting north and west over time on WCONUS Nighttime Microphysics satellite data.
Locally dense fog is being reported along the SR-30 and I-84 corridor near Snowville, and occasionally along portions of US-40 in the western Uinta Basin and adjacent terrain.
As the previously mentioned upper level low continues to shift east across Arizona and New Mexico, a portion of the guidance continues to suggest an area of precipitation will cross far southern Utah this evening into Thursday morning.
Another weak shortwave trough embedded in the jet may bring another round of showers across portions of eastern and southern Utah Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
As far as valley inversions...these inversions continue to strengthen, though with abundant cloud cover, may see some minor improvement in haze for some basins. The Utah DEQ is forecasting most monitored northern basins to remain at yellow/moderate air quality through Thursday, with the exception of Salt Lake County, which is forecast to shift to orange/unhealthy for sensitive groups through Thursday. The end of the inversion conditions are in sight though, with a stronger system impacting the state Friday.
Stratus is currently forecast to remain in the western Uinta Basin through at least Thursday morning...gradually improving during the day Thursday.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Friday)...A busy weekend is in store as a decaying atmospheric river brings abundant mountain snow and some valley snow to the area, with a focus across northern Utah. We often describe systems like this as "upside-down", meaning instead of decreasing snow levels, we are likely to see rising snow levels through the duration of the storm.
To start the long-term on Friday, a wave of energy will bring modest QPF amounts to both northern and southern areas, with valley snow expected (the exception being the St George metro).
This will be the most precipitation southern Utah will see through the long-term, with mountainous areas receiving around 3-6" of snow. A cold front will push through the area Friday night, dropping H7 temperatures to an ensemble mean of -12C by Saturday morning.
Precipitation will continue across much of the forecast area heading into Saturday, with broad westerly to northwesterly mid- level flow. A decaying atmospheric river looks likely to move inland along the CA-OR border and straight into northern Utah/southern Idaho, though there is still some uncertainty in its exact trajectory. The arrival of this IVT plume in concert with a weak shortwave trough moving through and upper-level jet support could very well produce a period of heavy precipitation on Saturday evening/night. There is currently a 40% chance of IVT values exceeding 250 J/kg (the definition of an atmospheric river)
for an extended period of time. While IVT doesn't directly translate to QPF amounts, exceeding 250 J/kg is notable for Utah and suggests plentiful moisture and strong transport. Localized orographic enhancement will occur, though there is some uncertainty in the exact wind direction; wind direction will likely fluctuate some between WSW and WNW flow during the weekend.
Sunday will feature ongoing precipitation across northern and central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. Rising snow levels are likely to transition some of the lowest elevations to rain, though there is still plenty of uncertainty in the timing and just how high snow levels will reach. For example, the NBM 25th-75th percentile spread ranges from 3800' to 5600' by Sunday evening.
Along with rising snow levels, snow ratios are expected to decrease, hence the "upside- down" storm with denser snow falling on top of lighter snow.
By Monday, expect a decline in precipitation coverage, with lingering mountain snow showers. A ridge is likely to gradually build over the Great Basin early in the work week, bringing a strong warming trend to the area as subsidence sets in.
To summarize and address uncertainty...QPF and snow totals could still change, especially in mountainous regions. The "winner" for snow amounts will greatly depend on the dominant flow direction, as there is still uncertainties there. Overall, during the entire long- term period, areas across the Wasatch may see 2-3' of snow with locally higher amounts. Currently, Ogden Valley, which tends to do well in westerly flow, could see well over a foot of snow.
The Cache Valley and Wasatch Front benches could also do quite well. Keep in mind that snow amounts may vary in valleys depending on the timing of transition to rain. Finally, there is also the question of how far south the moisture reaches and thus the southern extent of precipitation. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.
AVIATION
KSLC...As of 11Z, fog/low stratus is lingering over the Great Salt Lake, and could bring back periods of IFR VIS. This will only occur if these light winds briefly transition back to northwesterly (20% chance). Otherwise, MVFR VIS will continue with lingering haze. A transition to northwesterly winds is expected around 17-18z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Low stratus/fog will linger across portions of northern Utah through roughly 14-16z, potentially bringing IFR CIGs to KENV (20% chance) and KHCR (80% chance). The Uinta Basin is likely to continue to see IFR CIGs.
Light, diurnally- driven winds will prevail.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 349 AM MST Wed Nov 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
A weak upper level disturbance will cross the Desert Southwest through Thursday morning. A series of stronger, more impactful systems will impact the region Friday through early next week, with significant mountain snow and the potential for valley snow, particularly across northern Utah. Persistent valley inversions should improve by Friday morning.
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Friday)...Valley inversions continue to be the main story for the short term forecast period. Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates upper level ridging continuing to shift east while a weakening upper level low approaches the central California coast. Already noticeable is the active northern jet and associated jet max next up in line behind the previously mentioned upper level low.
Widespread stratus is noted across the western Uinta Basin, across portions of the Great Salt Lake and the west desert between Ibapah and Dugway. A brief period of dense fog developed over the northern part of the Salt Lake Airport terminal, however a weak downvalley/downslope component developed and shunted this area of fog/stratus back over the lake. This evolution continues with the fog/stratus noticeably shifting north and west over time on WCONUS Nighttime Microphysics satellite data.
Locally dense fog is being reported along the SR-30 and I-84 corridor near Snowville, and occasionally along portions of US-40 in the western Uinta Basin and adjacent terrain.
As the previously mentioned upper level low continues to shift east across Arizona and New Mexico, a portion of the guidance continues to suggest an area of precipitation will cross far southern Utah this evening into Thursday morning.
Another weak shortwave trough embedded in the jet may bring another round of showers across portions of eastern and southern Utah Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
As far as valley inversions...these inversions continue to strengthen, though with abundant cloud cover, may see some minor improvement in haze for some basins. The Utah DEQ is forecasting most monitored northern basins to remain at yellow/moderate air quality through Thursday, with the exception of Salt Lake County, which is forecast to shift to orange/unhealthy for sensitive groups through Thursday. The end of the inversion conditions are in sight though, with a stronger system impacting the state Friday.
Stratus is currently forecast to remain in the western Uinta Basin through at least Thursday morning...gradually improving during the day Thursday.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Friday)...A busy weekend is in store as a decaying atmospheric river brings abundant mountain snow and some valley snow to the area, with a focus across northern Utah. We often describe systems like this as "upside-down", meaning instead of decreasing snow levels, we are likely to see rising snow levels through the duration of the storm.
To start the long-term on Friday, a wave of energy will bring modest QPF amounts to both northern and southern areas, with valley snow expected (the exception being the St George metro).
This will be the most precipitation southern Utah will see through the long-term, with mountainous areas receiving around 3-6" of snow. A cold front will push through the area Friday night, dropping H7 temperatures to an ensemble mean of -12C by Saturday morning.
Precipitation will continue across much of the forecast area heading into Saturday, with broad westerly to northwesterly mid- level flow. A decaying atmospheric river looks likely to move inland along the CA-OR border and straight into northern Utah/southern Idaho, though there is still some uncertainty in its exact trajectory. The arrival of this IVT plume in concert with a weak shortwave trough moving through and upper-level jet support could very well produce a period of heavy precipitation on Saturday evening/night. There is currently a 40% chance of IVT values exceeding 250 J/kg (the definition of an atmospheric river)
for an extended period of time. While IVT doesn't directly translate to QPF amounts, exceeding 250 J/kg is notable for Utah and suggests plentiful moisture and strong transport. Localized orographic enhancement will occur, though there is some uncertainty in the exact wind direction; wind direction will likely fluctuate some between WSW and WNW flow during the weekend.
Sunday will feature ongoing precipitation across northern and central Utah and southwestern Wyoming. Rising snow levels are likely to transition some of the lowest elevations to rain, though there is still plenty of uncertainty in the timing and just how high snow levels will reach. For example, the NBM 25th-75th percentile spread ranges from 3800' to 5600' by Sunday evening.
Along with rising snow levels, snow ratios are expected to decrease, hence the "upside- down" storm with denser snow falling on top of lighter snow.
By Monday, expect a decline in precipitation coverage, with lingering mountain snow showers. A ridge is likely to gradually build over the Great Basin early in the work week, bringing a strong warming trend to the area as subsidence sets in.
To summarize and address uncertainty...QPF and snow totals could still change, especially in mountainous regions. The "winner" for snow amounts will greatly depend on the dominant flow direction, as there is still uncertainties there. Overall, during the entire long- term period, areas across the Wasatch may see 2-3' of snow with locally higher amounts. Currently, Ogden Valley, which tends to do well in westerly flow, could see well over a foot of snow.
The Cache Valley and Wasatch Front benches could also do quite well. Keep in mind that snow amounts may vary in valleys depending on the timing of transition to rain. Finally, there is also the question of how far south the moisture reaches and thus the southern extent of precipitation. Stay tuned for more details in the coming days.
AVIATION
KSLC...As of 11Z, fog/low stratus is lingering over the Great Salt Lake, and could bring back periods of IFR VIS. This will only occur if these light winds briefly transition back to northwesterly (20% chance). Otherwise, MVFR VIS will continue with lingering haze. A transition to northwesterly winds is expected around 17-18z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Low stratus/fog will linger across portions of northern Utah through roughly 14-16z, potentially bringing IFR CIGs to KENV (20% chance) and KHCR (80% chance). The Uinta Basin is likely to continue to see IFR CIGs.
Light, diurnally- driven winds will prevail.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.
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Airport Reports
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Wind History from 36U
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Salt Lake City, UT,
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