.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Monday/6PM Sunday)...Early Friday afternoon analysis depicted a departing shortwave propagating northeastward across central Wyoming, with an upstream shortwave tracking across southern Nevada. Behind the northern-most shortwave, mid-level subsidence was delaying the onset of convection across northern Utah and SW Wyoming (with the exception of the Uintas), while the southern-most shortwave was aiding in convective initiation across eastern Nevada and southern Utah. In general, latest guidance has shifted main area of highest probabilities for convectively-driven winds southward through this evening, as well as the highest probabilities for heavy rainfall. Earlier guidance was in good agreement that northwest Utah would have the greatest potential for gusty winds, but that has now shifted to mainly central and southern Utah, although while probabilities still exist for northern Utah, they have certainly fallen since yesterday. This lowers confidence in expected convective evolution this evening. Sifting through the guidance, and based on trends, it appears convective initiation has largely been terrain-based, with best shear across northwest Utah. Given this, would expect central/southern Utah convection will gradually diminish after sunset, however CAMs do indicate some form of northward-propagating cold pool across central Utah this evening, perhaps fizzling out by the time it reaches the I-80 corridor. As we head through the evening and overnight, upstream shortwave will propagate across southern and central Utah, reaching northern Utah Saturday morning. As a result, focus for convective activity will shift across northern Utah and SW Wyoming overnight into early Saturday morning. Main threats with any activity will continue to be gusty, erratic outflow winds, briefly heavy rain and frequent lightning.

On Saturday, expect a lull in activity from mid-morning through early afternoon as subsidence will be in place in the wake of the above-mentioned shortwave. However, yet another, more potent shortwave and associated modest jet streak will track across northern Nevada Saturday afternoon, and through southern Idaho through Saturday night, with another, loosely-defined shortwave tracking across central Utah. As a result, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop across northern Utah later Saturday afternoon through the evening, with isolated thunderstorms for eastern areas. HRRR max wind plot is quite bullish on its wind gust output Saturday afternoon and evening, with 30% probability contour of 58 mph wind gusts appearing across eastern Utah.
Digging into the details, this has merit as winds will increase to around 30kts at the top of the boundary layer, and mid-level dry advection will give an extra boost to downdrafts. In addition, ensemble max QPF shows some impressive values (1-2" in 1 hour)
across portions of northern Utah, thanks to lingering anomalous moisture and aid of large-scale ascent, so can't rule out some localized flash flood concerns here, especially where thunderstorms with heavy rain cores train. Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to continue near the Idaho border for much of Saturday night before diminishing towards sunrise Sunday morning.

Outside of convective potential Saturday, impressive dry intrusion across central/southern Utah will team up with 30kt winds at the top of the boundary layer to support a well-mixed boundary layer, with afternoon gusts in the 30-40 mph range across much of central and southern Utah. This will result in critical fire weather conditions when combined with minimum afternoon/early evening humidity values less than 15% along with critically dry fuels.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Monday/6PM Sunday), Issued 357 AM MDT...
There is strong agreement in a dry stretch of weather starting Sunday and continuing through most of the week. For the end of the weekend, a broad, weak trough will be positioned in the western U.S. That will keep a powerful ridge to the southeast. With that synoptic set up, as what's likely prior to that, gusty southwest winds are forecast. The pressure gradient will be a bit weaker Sunday, so wind speeds and gusts will be slightly lighter. Minimum relative humidity will be in the single digits, so enhanced fire danger will continue. Temperatures will be near normal, with low to mid 90s for most valleys.

Minimal change is likely Monday, as the broad trough will be in place to the west. The ridge will likely build slightly to the northwest, which would allow for slightly lower wind speeds and gusts.

Ridging will build northwest Tuesday. That will allow for lighter winds throughout southern Utah, with similar speeds from Monday for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah.

The ridge will build into the Four Corners area Wednesday.
Precipitable water values will be slightly higher throughout southern Utah, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds.

Models bring increased moisture late in the week as the ridge builds more northwest, but with a lack of strong forcing, showers or thunderstorms will be isolated and during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will increase to the mid to upper 90s for most valleys, with lower Washington County around 105F Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION
KSLC...The lake breeze, currently sitting over the northern half of the runways, is likely to push southward, producing northwesterly winds (instead of northerly over the north half and southerly over the south half). These winds will then transition to S around 02-03z as outflow reaches the terminal from some showers at the south end of the valley. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are likely overnight, beginning around 09-10z, likely exiting the area by 15z. With these showers, winds may be gusty and erratic at times, with a 25% chance of lightning. Wind direction after 15z continues to be low confidence due to gusty outflow.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon across portions of central and southern Utah, slowly shifting northward.
These showers could produce gusty and erratic winds, especially further north; there is a 5% chance of winds exceeding 50kts across northwestern Utah. More showers and thunderstorms will move into northern Utah overnight along an upper-level disturbance. These showers will reach the Wasatch Front as early as 08z (KPVU), gradually pushing northward. KLGU in particular could see some heavier rain and gustier winds as the showers strengthen after sunrise.

FIRE WEATHER
A moist airmass remains in place across much of the area today, although drier air will start to move into southwest Utah tonight. Expect another evening of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with some of the stronger storms capable of producing wetting rain. Another weather disturbance crossing into Utah tonight will maintain showers and thunderstorms through the night across portions of northern Utah. By Saturday, increasing southwest flow will bring more significant drying to much of southern and central Utah where afternoon relative humidities are expected to lower to 15% or below, with relatively poor overnight recoveries. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern and eastern portions Utah through Saturday evening before the dry air overspreads the entire area, remaining in place through at least the first half of next week. The increasing southwest winds on Saturday will combine with the low humidities to result in critical fire weather conditions across much of southern and central Utah. Some areas will continue to see critical fire weather conditions through Sunday and potentially beyond, although winds will be a bit weaker compared to Saturday. Pockets of critical fire weather conditions will persist across portions of southwest Utah on Monday and Tuesday, but currently it appears too marginal for a fire weather headline. Otherwise, expect steadily warming temperatures through the week with generally poor overnight recoveries. A return to isolated thunderstorms is expected across southern Utah by Thursday and Friday.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 PM MDT Sunday for UTZ482>484-488-489-492>498.

WY...None.