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FXUS65 KSLC 042151 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 351 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build across the region beginning Thursday, bringing a warming and drying trend through the weekend and into early next week.

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...The storm system that brought the recent moisture and cooldown to our area continues to exit the area this afternoon while high pressure builds into the West Coast.
Lingering clouds remain in place across portions of northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, otherwise it is trending clearer and more stable. As skies clear tonight, expect temperatures to trend cooler across northern Utah compared to last night while holding more steady across the south. In general, overnight mins are not expected to stray more than 5 degrees or so on either side of Climo. A northerly gradient will linger, maintaining some enhanced canyon winds in Washington County tonight, although H7 winds support weaker winds than last night.

Tomorrow will feature drier conditions and less clouds as temperatures trend warmer in conjunction with rising heights.
Afternoon maxes will trend closer to climatological normals.
Meanwhile, overnight mins tomorrow night will trend near to slightly above Climo.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday)...Late this week and into the weekend are forecast to be dominated by a ridge of high pressure.
This solution continues to be a consistent trend between forecast models and as such high confidence exists in this solution. As a result, dry conditions and mild temperatures are anticipated. In fact, temperatures over the weekend are forecast to be a few degrees above climate normals. There is one oddity in forecast models this weekend and that comes from the SREF model who is indicating enough moisture streaming northward to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms into southern Utah Saturday. This model is not being accounted for in the official forecast at this point.

Looking into next week, focus will turn to an area of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest which will gradually push the high eastward. Temperatures on Monday look similar to Sunday. The area of low pressure is forecast to push a cold front through the Intermountain West in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. This will decrease temperatures in its wake and increase rain activity over northern Utah. Southern Utah areas look to mostly stay dry though a chance for a rain shower can't completely be ruled out and temperatures are not expected to be impacted by this frontal passage as much. The strength and timing of the track of the low and associated cold front varies a bit between forecast models but for the most part sits in the middle of the week. It is worth noting though that late in the week, the European model deepens the low quite a bit. This is accounting for about 40% of the ensemble member solutions. If that comes to fruition, with a building ridge forecast to build in from the west, strong winds can be anticipated across central and eastern Utah.

AVIATION
KSLC...Mountain obscuration with low clouds will last through around 04Z with clouds diminishing through the evening.
Northwest winds will transition to southeast around 04Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Mountain obscuration will last through around 04Z for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Clouds will clear for the overnight with light winds. Low chances for patchy, locally more dense, fog is forecast at KLGU and KEVW, which would lower ceilings and visibility into MVFR range or lower.

FIRE WEATHER
High pressure will continue to build into the area behind the departing storm system. This high pressure will settle across the western states into the weekend, then slowly shift overhead into the beginning of next week. This will lead to a warming and drying trend across the area. Locally enhanced, though not especially strong, northerly winds will be possible through Thursday, otherwise winds are expected to remain generally light.
The next storm system currently looks to move across the area during the middle portion of next week.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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