Friday, July10, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Edgewater, NJ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:30PM Friday July 10, 2020 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:54AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 303 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions expected. E winds 40 to 45 kt, becoming sw 35 to 40 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers until early morning, then chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely early in the evening, then chance of showers and tstms late in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms early in the evening.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms early in the evening. Chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 303 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical storm fay will move northward along the mid atlantic coast and make landfall near new york city tonight. Fay will track north into the hudson valley Saturday morning. A series of weak fronts will then cross the area through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Edgewater , NJ
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As of July 8 NOAA did a network migration which caused this Forecast section to break. They are aware of the problem and working on it with high priority.
location: 40.78, -73.92     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 101935 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 335 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay will move northward along the Mid Atlantic coast today before making landfall near New York City tonight and continuing north into the Hudson Valley by Saturday morning. A series of weak fronts will then cross the area through mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Tropical Storm Fay continues to track slowly towards the area this aftn. Fay will make landfall tonight in the New York City area and continue north into the Hudson Valley by early Saturday. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track and forecast details for Tropical Storm Fay.

No changes to winds have been made since the 15Z update. Next wind update will be with the 21Z Hurricane Center advy.

Rain will continue to impact the area this aftn and eve, with bands rotating in from the ocean. With precipitable water values increasing to 2-2.5 inches and tall skinny CAPE, flash flooding will be possible into this evening as the heaviest rain moves across the area. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect, and WPC continues to include the entire forecast area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

In addition to the flash flood potential, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a marginal risk for severe weather, with a slight risk along the immediate coastline. Increasing low level shear as Fay approaches will lead to the potential for damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes in any thunderstorms that are able to develop. The greatest threat may be in the 00-03Z time period invof the sfc low as it passes thru the area.

In terms of winds, east to southeast flow will increase across the area through this eve. Gusts up to around 50 mph possible. The strongest gusts are expected across NYC, wrn Long Island, and wrn coastal Connecticut. Winds will then diminish overnight as Fay moves off to the north.

There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches thru tngt.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Despite the exit of Fay, a moist airmass will remain in place and allow for destabilization during the day. At the same time, an upr trof will approach from the w. As cin erodes, tstm initiation over the cwa is likely. The 12Z NAM indicated around 3000 CAPE in the aftn and eve. The main limiting factor is whether any earlier convection works over the atmosphere sufficiently. The primary svr threats will be damaging winds and hail. Severe wording and damaging winds have been included in the fcst for wrn areas to highlight the threat.

Any activity is modeled to diminish in the overnight period as dry air sweeps in at the mid lvls.

The NBM was used for temps. Heat indices will be close to 95 for much of the area. An advy may be needed based on the 2 day criteria Sat and Sun.

A high risk of rip currents continues for Atlantic Ocean beaches on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The mean trough axis will remain fairly stationary near the region through early next week as it is reinforced by a series of shortwaves rotating through Great Lakes into New England. Decent agreement that by mid week this trough axis finally lifts ne of the area, with heat ridging building into the area for late week into the weekend.

This setup will have a deep S/SW flow across the region through Tuesday, with a series of weak troughs moving through the region. This will spell a very warm and humid pattern with potential for scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity as shortwave energy rotates through with the surface troughs. Timing/location/coverage/intensity of threat will be determined by timing of shortwaves, which will have to be refined at shorter lead time.

General agreement with the mean trough axis lifting northeast of the region Wed, with building heights. If this plays out, deep WSW flow will advect in the building heat across the central US, with the hottest airmass of the season for late week into the weekend. With the region lying on northern periphery of this ridge and active westerlies across US/Canada border, and potentially moderate to high instability to work with, an occasional MCS or organized convective threat rolling through the area is not out of the question during this period.

The high rip current risk will likely continue into early next week.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. ***TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING***

Tropical Storm Fay tracks across or near the region this evening. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast track information.

Tropical storm conditions expected for the NYC metros this evening with IFR in heavy rain and E winds 25-35 kt with gusts 35-45 kt. Gusty winds spread to remaining terminals into this evening, with shifting winds to the SW tonight as the center of the tropical storm passes nearby.

Conditions should improve after 05z with diminishing overnight.

MVFR/IFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Some thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and hail.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday. MVFR or lower cond likely in SHRA/TSRA, mostly in the afternoon. Sunday and Monday. Continued chance mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA, with MVFR or lower cond possible. Tuesday AND Wednesday. VFR.

MARINE. Tropical storm conditions are expected into tngt, before improving early Sat. Waves were increased for all waters for the rest of today and tngt. The ocean is expected to come up to 10-12 ft with the Sound up 5-6 ft attm. Seas may remain abv sca lvls on the ocean into the middle of next week despite the exit of Fay. On the protected waters, winds and waves look to remain blw sca lvls Sat thru the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall amounts associated with Tropical Storm Fay will range from 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms or heavier rain bands. Flash flooding is possible, with smaller streams and rivers and urban, low lying poor drainage areas most vulnerable.

Additional thunderstorms Saturday afternoon could result in localized heavy rainfall and associated minor flooding of low lying areas. Otherwise, no significant widespread rain expected through Fri.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Potential for beach flooding and beach erosion, particularly during the times of high tide this afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Localized dune erosion is possible, but threat for washovers is low.

In terms of coastal flooding, there is a low potential for minor coastal flood impacts from combined surge and wave set-up. This will ultimately be dependent on track and intensity of the approaching low. Generally around 2ft of surge is needed to reach minor flood thresholds, which is currently not shown in any extratropical guidance, but a potential SE jet of 20-30kt and long period se swells could result in some localized minor flood impacts for vulnerable coastal locales of LI, Jamaica Bay and lower NY/NJ harbor for the Fri Night high tidal cycle.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ005>012. Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ009>012. NY . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. Tropical Storm Warning for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ . Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ002-004- 006-103>108. Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . IRD MARINE . HYDROLOGY . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 7 mi50 min 75°F 75°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 8 mi50 min ESE 5.1 G 12 73°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 11 mi50 min E 25 G 30 74°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 12 mi50 min ENE 25 G 35 72°F 72°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 15 mi50 min 75°F 77°F
MHRN6 16 mi50 min ENE 18 G 26
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 22 mi95 min ENE 21 G 29 72°F 1 ft71°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi50 min E 25 G 34 75°F 76°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 31 mi160 min E 27 G 35
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 48 mi50 min E 19 G 23 73°F 73°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY2 mi29 minE 21 G 301.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy76°F72°F88%1007.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY3 mi29 minESE 70.25 miHeavy Rain Fog73°F72°F96%1007.3 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ9 mi29 minE 11 G 171.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist74°F72°F94%1006.8 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY11 mi29 minE 25 G 331.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy75°F73°F94%1006.9 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ14 mi29 minNE 11 G 202.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist74°F73°F97%1006.6 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ20 mi27 minENE 100.50 miHeavy Rain Fog75°F73°F94%1008 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY23 mi24 minE 16 G 249.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12S11S11SE8SE6SE8SE7SE6E5NE6NE6NE7NE8NE9NE10NE10NE11NE13NE16NE15
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1 day agoNW8S10S8S9S7SE4S7S11S5SW7SW5SW7SW4S6SW4SW4S6SW56SE4S8S9
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2 days agoSE9SE11SE8SE9SE8NE8NE6S5S6SW9SW6S5S5S6S8S10SW965S9S9S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Lawrence Point, East River, New York, New York
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Lawrence Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:48 AM EDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:28 PM EDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:02 PM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.13.95.66.36.46.25.33.72.11.20.80.81.32.94.85.96.36.35.84.52.81.71.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:17 AM EDT     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:26 AM EDT     0.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:39 PM EDT     -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.3-00.10.40.80.80.30-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.10.10.30.70.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.