Guttenberg, NJ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guttenberg, NJ


September 23, 2023 10:44 AM EDT (14:44 UTC)
Sunrise 6:43AM   Sunset 6:53PM   Moonrise  3:37PM   Moonset 12:00AM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1018 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain early this morning, then rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then showers likely with isolated tstms after midnight.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1018 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. The region will be in between high pressure in the northern atlantic and tropical storm ophelia well to the south and west today. Ophelia is forecasted by the national hurricane center to transition from tropical storm to a post-tropical depression tonight into Sunday morning as it moves northward within the mid-atlantic. Meanwhile, an associated warm front will approach the region tonight and stall south of long island this weekend. The area of low pressure will continue to approach to close this weekend before passing south of long island early next week. This will be followed by high pressure building in from southeast canada mid into late next week.
for the latest forecasts on tropical storm ophelia, refer to the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the nws new york office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guttenberg, NJ
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 231203 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 803 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
The region will be in between high pressure in the Northern Atlantic and Tropical Storm Ophelia well to the south and west today. Ophelia is forecasted by the National Hurricane Center to transition from tropical storm to a post-tropical depression tonight into Sunday morning as it moves northward within the mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, an associated warm front will approach the region tonight and stall south of Long Island this weekend.
The area of low pressure will continue to approach to close this weekend before passing south of Long Island early next week. This will be followed by high pressure building in from Southeast Canada mid into late next week.

For the latest forecasts on Tropical Storm Ophelia, refer to the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the NWS New York office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
The forecast omega increases vertically as time progresses further into this morning with the atmospheric column getting close to saturated.

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Ophelia moving northward inland across eastern North Carolina on Saturday.

In the local area, the area will be within a tightening pressure gradient between Ophelia to the south and west and high pressure in the Northern Atlantic to the southeast of Nova Scotia.

Gusty easterly winds will be highest across NYC and Long Island and decrease farther north across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior Southern Connecticut. Highest gusts generally this afternoon into evening, with max gusts close to 40 mph along the coast, closer to 35 mph inland.

Increasing mid level positive vorticity advection with the approach of mid level cutoff low as well as approach of southerly upper level jet streak and its left front quad will enhance vertical lift through Saturday. Layer precipitable waters increase to near 1.7 to 1.9 inches. Parallel flow from low to mid levels will allow for training of convection.

So, this will lead to steady stratiform rain with some embedded locally heavier rain from time to time. The threat for flash flooding remains low so well below threshold for a flash flood and therefore there is no flood watch in effect at this time.

Forecast highs will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, much below normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Ophelia becoming post-tropical and weakening to a depression Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

An associated warm front will approach from the south and stall south of Long Island.

The upper level jet streak and its left front quad shift farther east of the region. With mid levels exhibiting some space between positive vorticity and next positive vorticity with mid level cutoff low to the southwest, there will be less vertical lift for rainfall, leading to a lull in the rain. The rain will become more intermittent. Forecast model BUFKIT profiles show a lack of omega as well for much of the night. Layer precipitable waters also decrease near a third to a half inch, down to near 1.3 to 1.4 inches for Saturday night.

However for late night into very early Sunday morning, the mid level cutoff low gets closer to the area with greater positive vorticity advection moving into the local region. The back end of the upper level jet streak will be moving south of Long Island, with its right rear quad getting closer to the area. Enhanced lift accounting for mid and upper level factors will be more present across the southern sections of the region for NE NJ, NYC and Long Island.

POPs lower to chance for the first half of tonight and then trend back to likely overnight into very early Sunday morning for SW portions of the forecast region.

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center keeps Ophelia as post-tropical as a post tropical depression. This low makes its way towards the DelMarva Sunday into early Sunday evening.

Some forecast model BUFKIT profiles such as the NAM and some members of the SREF convey a sharp increase in omega to greater magnitudes than present on the previous day for Sunday morning. However, other forecast model BUFKIT profiles do not depict the rapid increase or magnitude of omega.

Models are depicting some elevated instability as conveyed by near zero to slightly negative Showalter Indices for Sunday across the coastal sections with cold pool aloft from cutoff mid level low moving into the area by the start of Wednesday evening. The positive vorticity advection increases during the day Sunday. However, the cutoff low will be weakening with time.

Precipitable waters shown by forecast models return to around 1.8 to 1.9 inches on Sunday.

For Sunday night, low pressure traverses near to south of Long Island along the stalled warm front. Mid level positive vort maximum moves across as well but will be getting less organized and weakening.

For Monday, weakening mid level flow will allow for the weakened low to slow down and remain in the vicinity.

Weakening mid level trough pushes farther south on Monday night, steering the low relatively farther south of Long Island. POPs for rain showers will decrease with mainly dry conditions anticipated.

Temperatures will remain below normal for high temperatures and near to slightly below normal for low temperatures.

For the latest forecasts on Tropical Storm Ophelia, refer to the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the NWS New York office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Region in mid levels remains between troughs, one to the east and one to the west. More uncertainty towards end of week but mid level heights do not change too much. At the surface, high pressure builds southward into the region later Tuesday through Thursday night.

Mainly dry weather conditions expected. Some uncertainty initially early Tuesday with how fast low pressure departs farther away and location of low pressure towards end of the week as well as the strength of high pressure. There are some slight chance POPs for rain showers in these time periods.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*High impact aviation weather expected Today*

Tropical Storm Ophelia moves inland over the Carolinas this morning and lifts northward. Rain and MVFR conditions are currently developing. IFR expected to develop for most terminals by 14-17Z and last through the remainder of the TAF period. The rain will become more widespread and become moderate to locally heavy from 15-16z and last until 20-21Z. Afterwards the rain should taper off and become lighter into this evening with -SHRA. The rain may completely end for a short time late tonight, before returning early Sun morning.

ENE winds be at 15-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt. For today the strongest winds likely at coastal terminals and points east, with an isolated gust of around 35 kt possible. The wind direction is not expected to change, remaining NE through the day. Timing of the peak winds is mid to late morning and into the mid to late afternoon.
Winds should decrease slightly toward this evening, but gusts will remain through tonight and into Sunday morning with the winds generally remaining out of the NE.

LLWS remains a possibility towards midday - early afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Best chances for LLWS will be across the coastal terminals. There will be another chance for LLWS towards early Sunday morning, with confidence too low at this time to include in TAFs.

.NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of any flight category changes may be off by an hour or two and amendments are likely through the TAF period. LLWS occurrence remains possible today and early Sun AM.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: LLWS possible early. MVFR or lower likely in rain with possible embedded thunder. Gusty winds to 25 kt possible.

Monday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
HiRes ARW and FV3 show afternoon gusts in the 30 to 35 kt range for non-ocean waters and in the 35 to 40 kt range for the ocean waters.
Multiple members of SREF indicate gale force gusts on the Long Island Sound this afternoon at multiple hours. It appears the weight of the guidance is favoring gales across much of the marine zones.
Looks to be confined to this afternoon and evening but some gales could very well occur late tonight as well for non-ocean waters.
Hoisted the gale warning for the non-ocean waters considering the aforementioned guidance for today into tonight. Gales remain in effect for the ocean waters for today into tonight.

For Sunday, wind gusts mostly in the SCA range which will gradually lower below SCA thresholds Sunday night across the forecast waters. Ocean seas remain well into SCA range Sunday through Sunday night. For early Sunday, there could be some remaining localized areas with gale force gusts.

Another round of widespread SCA conditions early next week but by midweek just ocean seas with SCA conditions in the forecast.

HYDROLOGY
Storm total rainfall of near 2 to 3 inches forecast for much of the region today through Monday. Maximum hourly rates still appear to be mainly around a quarter to half inch but could get higher Sunday with some thunderstorms. There remains a low chance for flash flooding this weekend especially for any locations that get locally more than 3 inches and if those locations are poor drainage and low-lying.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high rip current risk for all Atlantic facing beaches through Sunday early evening due to long period easterly wind waves and E/S swells.

A high surf advisory has been extended for all coastal zones of Long Island, including the ocean shorelines of Brooklyn and Queens through early Sunday evening. Breaking waves of 6 to 10 ft are forecast from a combo of E/S long period swells. This will lead to beach flooding and erosion, with scattered areas of dune erosion. The threat for localized overwashes is low at this point. Surf will subside to 4 to 8 Sunday afternoon, but could continue at that level into early next week with onshore flow.

Strengthening E/NE flow ahead of an approaching warm front will allow for surge of around 1 ft to develop for the aft/eve high tide, resulting in minor coastal flooding along the Lower NY/NJ Harbor, Jamaica Bay, Great South Bay of Nassau County, as well as coastal Westchester and Fairfield counties. Elsewhere across LI and NYC, generally localized minor coastal flooding expected due to combo of wave action and elevated water levels.

Another round of localized minor coastal flooding is likely for Lower NY/NJ harbor and southern bays of NYC/LI on Sunday with a persistent but weakened onshore flow. Additional rounds of minor coastal flooding are possible for next week as astronomical tides continue to increase, and E/NE flow possibly strengthening depending on evolution of TS Ophelia.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ071.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340- 345-350-353-355.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 6 mi57 min 60°F 69°F30.10
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 10 mi57 min NE 23G27 59°F 30.15
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 11 mi57 min NNE 11G21 59°F 71°F30.19
BGNN6 13 mi57 min 59°F 70°F30.16
MHRN6 14 mi57 min NNE 17G25
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 22 mi57 min NE 14G24 61°F 69°F30.14
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 32 mi45 min 29G35 68°F30.07
44069 47 mi45 min 0G0 62°F 67°F62°F

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Wind History for Robbins Reef, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY 5 sm53 minNE 22G321/2 smOvercast Lt Rain 61°F55°F82%30.17
KJRB DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN/WALL ST,NY 6 sm48 minNNE 19G293 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 61°F57°F88%30.16
KTEB TETERBORO,NJ 7 sm53 minNNE 076 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 55°F54°F94%30.18
KEWR NEWARK LIBERTY INTL,NJ 12 sm27 minNNE 19G264 smOvercast Rain Mist 57°F55°F94%30.15
KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY 14 sm15 minNE 18G254 smOvercast Rain Mist 59°F59°F100%30.15
KCDW ESSEX COUNTY,NJ 18 sm51 minNE 09G1510 smOvercast Lt Rain 57°F52°F82%30.19
KLDJ LINDEN,NJ 18 sm29 minNE 15G224 smOvercast Lt Rain 57°F54°F88%30.14
KMMU MORRISTOWN MUNI,NJ 23 sm54 minNE 09G167 smOvercast Rain 57°F55°F94%30.18
KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY 24 sm48 minNE 0710 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 55°F52°F88%30.20

Wind History from NYC
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Horns Hook, East 90th Street, East River, New York, New York
   
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Horns Hook
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Sat -- 04:26 AM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:54 PM EDT     5.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:55 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Horns Hook, East 90th Street, East River, New York, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1.4
1
am
2.2
2
am
3.1
3
am
3.7
4
am
4
5
am
3.9
6
am
3.6
7
am
2.8
8
am
1.9
9
am
1.4
10
am
1.2
11
am
1.2
12
pm
1.5
1
pm
2.4
2
pm
3.5
3
pm
4.4
4
pm
5
5
pm
5.1
6
pm
4.9
7
pm
4.2
8
pm
3.2
9
pm
2.2
10
pm
1.6
11
pm
1



Tide / Current for Hell Gate (East River), New York Current
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Hell Gate (East River)
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Sat -- 01:18 AM EDT     2.99 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:16 AM EDT     -3.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:45 PM EDT     3.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EDT     -4.14 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Hell Gate (East River), New York Current, knots
12
am
2.6
1
am
3
2
am
2.9
3
am
2.4
4
am
1.4
5
am
-2
6
am
-3.4
7
am
-3.9
8
am
-3.8
9
am
-3.2
10
am
-2
11
am
1.2
12
pm
2.3
1
pm
2.9
2
pm
3.1
3
pm
2.8
4
pm
2
5
pm
0.5
6
pm
-3
7
pm
-3.9
8
pm
-4.1
9
pm
-3.8
10
pm
-3.1
11
pm
-1.9




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Upton, NY,



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