Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Guttenberg, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour and thunderstorm activity from tonight into early next week.

2. Hot and very humid from Thursday into Monday, with the highest heat and humidity Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Potential for scattered diurnal convection should persist from tonight into early next week as region lies on the NW edge of Bermuda ridging, with shortwave energy riding up the ridge itself and then also approaching from the west this weekend into early next week as the ridge weakens.

The ridge will help usher in a very warm and very humid air mass into the region Thu into early next week, with deep SW flow and H8 temps rising to 18-20C.

Guidance depicts best forcing mainly south/west of NYC today.
Additionally, not expecting any significant moisture advection (aside from the thin layer near the surface due to the sea breeze) until after sunset today. Current fcst carries only slight chance late day PoP for portions of NE NJ, then better chances tonight.

As the moisture builds particularly from Thursday onward, this will present an isolated severe and flash flood threat, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Storm motions are expected to be moderate through this period (20-30 kt), so it may come down to whether will be any training of storms or if brief very heavy downpours occur over the most flood vulnerable locations. The WPC marginal risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday through Saturday is reasonable. The severe threat for Thu looks only marginal well inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend.

Temps on Thu/Fri should rise to at least to the upper 80s/lower 90s if not a little warmer in the urban corridor of NE NJ/NYC metro, with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This should yield widespread heat index values of 95+ across the entire CWA, and as high as 100-105 for NYC metro, coastal CT, and most of Long Island except the south fork and immediate south shore. MOS continues to run higher on temps and lower on dewpoints than NBM, but with similar heat index values. A heat advisory will be needed for this time frame.

For Sat-Mon, heat index values should reach the mid/upper 90s across the NYC metro area and across most of Long Island and the I-95 corridor of southern CT.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A weak warm front lifts north of the terminals through this evening.

Mainly VFR through this evening. Isolated SHRA or TSRA possible after 20Z for KEWR, KTEB, and after 00z at KSWF. There is also a chance for showers/thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening at the same terminals.

Lower confidence with flight categories overnight as MVFR may develop 02z-05z with potential of IFR, especially at coastal terminals late tonight into early Thursday morning. Conditions should gradually improve to VFR 13-15z Thursday morning.

SE winds under 10 kt into this evening. Light SE winds tonight will veer to the S-SSW at NYC terminals with light/variable elsewhere. SW winds increase Thursday morning, becoming S-SSW late morning into the afternoon around 10 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Any showers/storms this evening may remain west of KEWR and KTEB.

Amendments likely for flight categories tonight/early Thursday morning.

Timing of improvement to VFR Thursday morning may be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday Afternoon-Night: Mainly VFR with chance of MVFR and showers/storms in afternoon and evening, especially N and W of NYC metros.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening, especially in the vicinity of NYC metros on N and W.

Saturday-Monday: Mainly VFR. Low probability for shower/thunderstorm Monday afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Could see a period of winds/seas approaching 25 kt and 5 ft on the ocean waters W of Moriches Inlet from late day into the evening on Thu.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is expected for today as SSE swells continue to subside closer to 3 ft. The moderate risk should continue through most of Thursday, however it may increase to high at some beaches toward evening as southerly winds and swells increase.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.