Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Remsenburg-Speonk, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Tonight will be dry as high pressure centered over the region moves off the New England coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will be moving out of the central plains states and into the Great Lakes region, and is associated with northern stream energy and a longwave trough. Temperatures will drop off quickly early tonight as winds become light and variable with mostly clear conditions. However, by the overnight temperatures will likely hold nearly steady, or even rise a few degrees especially along the coast, as warm advection develops with a warm front approaching to the southwest, and clouds increase.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Warm air advection increases into Sunday morning as the warm front nears the southern portions of the region, and possibly moves into the coastal region Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the surface low will be moving into the eastern Great Lakes region and into southern Canada. The upper trough will be rather flat and progressive across the northeast. This will bring a cold front quickly across the region late day Sunday into Sunday evening. Precipitation develops by late Sunday morning, and will be mainly rain, with a brief start of snow and snow mixed with rain across far western portions of Orange County and Western Passaic County as the warm air will not be reaching into the interior as the low begins to occlude. Precipitation will be generally light, but there may be a brief period of moderate rainfall along the coast where the strongest lift will be located.

Near zonal flow will continue across the eastern half of the country Monday and will allow the next northern stream amplifying trough to move out of the Pacific northwest and into the central plains early Monday. Meanwhile, surface high builds into the region late Sunday night into Monday morning, and with the progressive flow, moves quickly offshore Monday night.

The deep upper trough will bring the surface low out of the southeastern states late Monday night with a chance of precipitation across the region toward Tuesday morning. Enough low level warm air will be across the coastal regions for the precipitation to the all rain, however in the overrunning precipitation shield a rain/snow mix band will be possible, with even some sleet at times, while the farther inland areas will likely begin as all snow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Points:

* Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation type. At this time, it looks like mainly rain at the coast with rain/snow line somewhere over the interior.

* Below normal temperatures through next Friday.

NBM closely followed during this timeframe.

The focus for this forecast period will remain on a potential coastal low bringing wintry weather to the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Global models have trended farther NW with the low track the last 24h, with many of the 12Z operationals just inside the 40N...70W benchmark. The EPS/GEFS mean are farther SE, deeper, and more clustered around the mean, but there are also more members to the NW of the mean than recent days. While the Pac energy associated with this southern branch storm system is about to come onshore western Canada, there will likely be some run to run changes that are often critical to precipitation type across the area. In addition, with no blocking over the north Atlantic, high pressure quickly lifts out of the Northeast as the storm approaches, allowing for more of a marine influence and erosion of the cold air. This is why it is too difficult this far out to mention snowfall totals.
What does appear to be more certain though is for a strong coastal low to impact the region.

The forecast is more reflective of a consenus forecast. Such a track favors a mainly rain event at the coast, with a rain/snow line working inland. Inland locations have the best chance of seeing winter weather impacts at this time. NBM probabilities for greater than inch of snowfall range from 10-25 percent at the coast and 40- 70 percent inland. For an advisory level snow, these probabilities are 0-10 percent and 20-40 percent, respectively.

High pressure will primarily in control for the second half of the week, minus a cold frontal passage on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will build across the area through this evening, then offshore overnight. A frontal system will then approach from the west on Sunday.

VFR through tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions in light rain developing during the late morning and early afternoon hours Sunday.

NW winds diminish this afternoon, likely become light and variable for a time overnight before becoming SE/S toward daybreak. S winds increase to 10-15kt with G20kt by late morning/early afternoon Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gusts 15-20kt through about 20Z.

Winds for a time this evening may be light northerly.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Afternoon/Night: Rain with MVFR/IFR conditions in the afternoon/early evening. S winds G20-25kt, highest near the coast.
Improving to VFR after 00Z. Winds becoming W G15-20kt.

Monday: VFR. NW G15-20kt, mainly in the morning.

Tuesday: MVFR expected in the morning, IFR possible in the afternoon/evening. Precip type mainly snow at KSWF. Rain and/or snow at the onset at the other terminals, changing to rain in the morning. Winds become N in the afternoon with G15-25kt, highest at the coastal terminals.

Wednesday: VFR. NW G15-20kt early.

Thursday: VFR. WSW G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure over the waters, and moves off the New England coast tonight, winds and seas remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters into early Sunday morning. A increasing southerly flow ahead of the next rapidly approaching frontal system Sunday will increase winds with ocean seas building and SCA conditions will develop by late Sunday morning on the ocean, south shore bays, and the far eastern Long Island Sound. There is some uncertainty with the strength of the gusts on the ocean waters with warm air moving over the colder waters.
A SCA will be in effect for the above mentioned waters late Sunday morning, running through 100 AM EST Monday for the Sound and southern bays, and at least through Sunday night on the ocean. Small craft conditions may continue into Monday morning before falling below by midday as high pressure builds back into the region. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels through Monday night.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ332-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.