Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Remsenburg-Speonk, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Drier and cooler today with weak high pressure in place.

2) Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be met or exceeded at many coastal locations for tonight's high tide cycles.

3) Cold front on Sunday brings showers and a much colder air mass into the region for early next week.

4) Gradual warming trend mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Weak high pressure nosing down from New England maintains drier and cooler conditions to start the weekend.

Light onshore flow develops around the high by late morning, and expecting a fair amount of low cloud cover/stratus to come with it, especially across eastern areas. The cool wind off the waters (SSTs in the low 50s) and limited sun should restrain temperatures along the coast into the afternoon, with highs across Long Island and much of CT only getting into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

To the north and west away from this maritime influence, additional sunshine should help temperatures climb more into the upper 60s and even lower 70s. Clouds then build in region wide by this evening ahead of an approaching frontal system.

KEY MESSAGE 2

With Friday's new moon, water levels will remain astronomically high for the next few nights.

A weak onshore flow, initially out of the ENE into this afternoon gradually veers to the ESE towards this evening. This additional component should slightly enhance the potential and extent of coastal flood impacts. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements are now in effect for tonight's high tide cycles.


KEY MESSAGE 3

Broad upper trough approaches tonight, pushing a cold front through the region early Sunday. A sprawling Canadian high then builds in for early week.

Associated rain with the front develops as early as late tonight for western areas, gradually overspreading the rest of the region into Sunday morning. A few heavier showers and rumbles of thunder with a weak wave of low pressure passing nearby are possible ahead of the main frontal forcing, otherwise a light to moderate band of rain showers moves through from early Sunday AM into the afternoon. QPF is relatively light, averaging between a quarter to half inch by Sunday evening. Other than typical ponding in urbanized and poor drainage areas, no hydro concerns from this activity. Still not out of the question the rain tapers as some wet flakes across the higher elevations of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT, but no impacts expected if this were to occur.

A sharply colder air mass then briefly settles in through Tuesday.
Early day high temperatures expected Sunday with the fropa occurring in the morning, followed by temperatures falling into the 40s through the afternoon as CAA kicks in on NW flow. Cold advection along with mostly clear skies Sunday night will lead to temperatures falling into the 30s for much of the area except in the NYC metro where low 40s appear likely.

Cyclonic flow and steep lapse rates with a cold pool aloft should lead to the development of stratocu Monday afternoon.
Continue to carry slight chance PoPs (~15%), with potential for a few brief pop up showers. A few could even contain ice pellets across the northern interior. Coldest of the period looks to be Monday night, with clear skies and light winds helping to efficiently cool the BL. A widespread freeze appears likely outside the urban NYC metro, with lows ranging from the mid 20s across the interior to mid 30s in the city, or about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

The cooler regime is short-lived, with gradual moderation returning conditions to above normal by midweek.


KEY MESSAGE 4

Gradual warming trend by midweek as high pressure slides offshore and a warm front lifts through, setting a milder SW flow.

While far from the early season heat earlier this week, daytime temperatures look to return to the 60s and 70s for most, and may trend even warmer to end the week as ridging is progged to build over the East. Absent a few showers with the frontal system on Wednesday, much of mid to late week looks dry.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure remains nosed in from the northeast through today.
The high retreats tonight as a cold front approaches from the west, and moves into the terminals toward Sunday morning, and through the area Sunday.

Low confidence in the forecast into this evening as stratus and fog continues to advect into the terminals from the east and may move into the NYC metro terminals a few hours earlier than forecast. IFR to LIFR this evening and into the overnight with showers developing late tonight.

A light ENE early this morning with winds veering to E/SE to around 10 kt. Winds remain SE into this evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence forecast. Amendments for timing of lowering ceilings likely.

VFR to start, with timing of lowering conditions to IFR and possibly LIFR uncertain as stratus continues to move in from the east, and may move in a few hours earlier than forecast.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: IFR to LIFR early with showers, possibly a thunderstorm, becoming MVFR. Winds shift to NW, gusts 25-30 kt late morning into the evening.

Monday-Tuesday: Slight chance of showers Monday, otherwise VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Visibilities have improved on the nearshore and western waters.
The advisory has been cancelled. Will have to watch visibilities further east as low clouds have overspread from the northeast.
Visibilities along the coast of SE New England have started improving, so currently not the need for any additional Dense Fog Advisories during the daytime. There is a chance for fog tonight, but confidence not high on if it will be dense and 1nm or less.

Conditions remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds with weak high pressure in place today. A cold front approaches tonight and moves across the waters Sunday. NW wind develop behind the fropa into the early afternoon, and gusts may exceed 25 kt into Sunday evening. Ocean seas will also approach 5 ft, especially out 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for at least the ocean, with potential across nearshore waters as well with marginal winds. Conditions improve Sunday night, and relatively tranquil weather is then expected into midweek.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ071-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...None.