Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ronkonkoma, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Some higher level clouds are streaking to the NE and are beginning to move into the area. For today the ridge axis gets further east and offshore. Thus, more in the way of mid and upper level clouds will work in from the south and west in advance of a shortwave in semi-zonal flow which moves across the Great Lakes region by this afternoon into this evening.
This will promote a light southerly flow and slightly higher dew points and humidity into the region. Temperatures will average above normal for early October with mainly lower and middle 70s region wide.

The cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians towards evening. A mid deck of clouds will be more prevalent later in the day, with skies becoming mostly cloudy tonight with a chance to slight chance of showers across the CWA, with minimal shower chances across far southern and southeastern sections. Temperatures should average a few degrees above normal with a more humid flow just preceding the cold front, despite more in the way of clouds. The cold front is expected to be a weak one, with only some showers scattered along and just ahead of the boundary as indicated by high res NWP reflectivity progs. Showers will be moving from west to east throughout the night into early Saturday morning. With much of the forcing going north of the CWA Therefore, with regard to QPF the expectation is only for a few hundredths to up to a tenth of an inch. Much of any light shower activity should get east of the twin forks of LI and E CT by mid morning on Saturday. Lows tonight will be primarily in the upper half of the 50s to the lower half of the 60s due to cloud cover and somewhat elevated dew points on a very light S to SW synoptic flow.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Some mid and upper level clouds will linger for a portion of Saturday morning, especially across the eastern half of the area.
Otherwise, look for plenty of sunshine to develop as deep layer ridging builds behind the 700 mb trough axis which pivots through by late morning. Temperatures will be seasonably warm for early October with most places getting well into the 70s. Dew points begin to fall in the afternoon as drier air lagging behind the cold front somewhat begins to works in on a northerly flow.

Heights build into Saturday night with primarily clear skies. With high pressure getting overhead and a weaker pressure gradient look for a good set up for radiational cooling in the more rural areas.
Used a MAV / MET blend to capture a wider spread in night time minimum temperatures in outlying areas as NBM appeared too warm in these areas. Widespread 40s are expected into early Sunday morning for the outlying areas, with mainly 50s in the non-rural areas.

Look for more sunshine on Sunday as high pressure at the surface begins the day directly over the area, but then slides east and offshore later in the day. Upper level clouds begin to work in during the afternoon in advance of a warm front back to the west.
Temperatures will continue to run a touch above average with mainly lower 70s for day time maxes.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Long term forecast remains similar to the previous forecast with the passage of a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday. A longwave trough will be passing mainly to the north Sunday night with the better forcing and chances of any precipitation across the northern areas. The upper trough closes off and lingers across southeastern Canada into the middle of the week. During Sunday night there will be some elevated CAPE, with little instability or forcing, so chance for any convection will be minimal, and any convection that may occur will be isolated.

Weak upper ridging then builds to the west for the end of next week as surface high pressure builds slowly to the east from south central Canada and the northern Plains. Dry weather is likely from Monday night into the end of the week. The airmass with the high will bring in much cooler air, and temperatures near or slightly above normal Sunday night into Tuesday will then be as much as around 5 degrees below normal Tuesday night through Thursday night.
A gusty northwest Tuesday, and more so Wednesday and Thursday, will make it feel cooler with dew points in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure along the northeast and mid Atlantic coast slides offshore today and tonight. A cold front approaches late this evening, and moves through late tonight.

VFR. Any lingering MVFR ceilings, 15-20K ft will dissipate around, or soon after 12Z. There is a low chance of MVFR ceilings with showers late tonight, and have maintained a PROB30 for the showers.

Light and variable winds early this morning become S less than 10kt by late morning, and light and variable late tonight, before shifting to NW-N toward 12Z Saturday.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. A chance of showers with MVFR possible east of the NYC terminals until around 13Z. N/NW G14-19kt.

Sunday through Monday: VFR Sunday, then a chance of MVFR with showers Sunday night into Monday. Isolated thunder possible Sunday night.

Tuesday: VFR. W/NW G15-19kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A stretch of sub small craft conditions will prevail late this week and into the weekend despite a 9 second period ESE swell. A SE wind on Friday becomes northerly to begin the weekend on Saturday. Seas get closer to 4 ft on the ocean later Sunday as long period swells increase. With long period swells from Hurricane Kirk (see NHC for forecast details) reaching the area, ocean seas build to 5 to 6 feet Sunday night into Monday.
Swells will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues are expected throughout the forecast.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.