Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 4:37 PM   Moonset 4:46 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 537 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Showers likely early, then chance of showers early this afternoon. Tonight - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon - NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely. Wed night - NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 537 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon into the evening. High pressure then builds in through early next week, then gives way to a frontal system on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in again for the end of the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 201148 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 748 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon into the evening. High pressure then builds in through early next week, then gives way to a frontal system on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in again for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast generally on track with just some minor adjustments to the forecast database to reflect current observations.

Otherwise, A cold front will approach the region today and move across the area late this afternoon into this evening.
Ahead of the front, a pre- frontal trough will develop.

PoPs will steadily increase this morning from west to east as showers continue to develop over NJ and move across the region.
Forecast guidance in good agreement that the shower activity will become more widespread as it moves into and across the CWA
Most the of rainfall should be light although a few brief moderate showers cannot be ruled out. Rainfall amounts will generally remain less than a quarter of an inch, except some spots could see up to three tenths of an inch across southeastern CT.

Improving conditions are expected late morning into the afternoon with the likelihood for some sunshine as clouds thin/diminish. Best chances will be west of NYC.

A pre-frontal trough over the area will keep the winds out of the W or SW for much of the day. This should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s for much of the area, with upper 60s to near 70 across portions of NE NJ.

The cold front moves across the area late this afternoon, shifting the winds to the NW, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. A few of the CAMs are showing some isolated showers with the frontal passage late in the day. Chances for this are low and with the best forcing north of the region, will leave any mention out of the forecast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The cold front continues to push across the area early this evening.
Any leftover isolated showers, should quickly come to an end. Behind the front, expect mostly clear skies with lows falling into the 30s inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and lower 40s closer to the coast.

A large upper level low will be developing over southeast Canada tonight into Sunday. This will result in troughing persisting over the eastern US early next week. A wave of low pressure is progged to develop over the southeast on Sunday along with another shortwave swinging across New England. These features will likely bring middle and upper level clouds on Sunday with partly to mostly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Highs will be a few degrees below normal in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Surface high pressure then builds into the region for Monday and Monday night. Conditions will remain dry with highs on Monday in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures will fall into the 30s Monday night. Light winds and cold temperatures may result in some frosty spots well north and west of NYC.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A more zonal mid-level flow takes hold of the region by Tuesday with surface high pressure in place during the day. The next piece of energy embedded in a trough over the Great Lakes approaches the area on Wednesday. A low pressure system develops and passes north of the area pushing a cold front through the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This brings the next chance for a round of rain for the area. The surface low moves northeast of the area on Thursday with high pressure building in from the west through the end of the week making for a fairly tranquil period.

Temperatures will remain at or below average for the extended period with highs each day in the middle 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A surface trough is moving across the terminals this morning. A cold front will move across the terminals this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight.

MVFR/IFR ceilings prevail across the terminals this morning with rain showers. There remains a low chance that a few terminals may briefly lower to LIFR before 14Z. Conditions expected to improve quickly to VFR by mid-morning for the western terminals and during the afternoon for the eastern terminals.

Light S winds become SW this morning. WInds may briefly become more W by mid morning behind the surface trough. Winds expected to shift back to the SW before the passage of the cold front during the afternoon where winds become more WNW with gusts developing. There is a chance that gusts will be around 25-30kt by late in the day with the cold frontal passage. Gusts diminish into the first half of the overnight period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Unscheduled AMD possible for timing of category changes.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon/early evening mainly NYC metros/coast.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Showers becoming likely. S winds 10-15G20-25kt mainly in the afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A cold front moves across the waters late today into this evening.
High pressure then builds Saturday night through Sunday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels given a relatively weak pressure gradient.

High pressure should keep conditions at sub-advisory levels through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to SCA levels on Wednesday with the next low pressure and associated cold front to approach.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Nissequogue River entrance
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Sat -- 03:45 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM EDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EDT     7.21 feet High Tide
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Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Northport
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Sat -- 03:55 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:56 AM EDT     7.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:12 PM EDT     7.45 feet High Tide
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Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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