Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Commack, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Slightly lowered temperatures across the interior to better match observed trends. Also, slightly increased clouds with some thin transparent cirrus moving over the region as detected by IR satellite. Clouds are expected to decrease overnight.
Still expecting mostly clear sky conditions overall through overnight. Otherwise, forecast mainly on track.

High pressure centered south of the area will slowly work farther out into the ocean. Expect seabreeze enhanced winds early, them a light S/SW flow that increase toward daybreak. Dry and mostly clear sky conditions are expected tonight with low temperatures generally in the upper 40s to low 50s, though the NYC metro may not drop out of the middle 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure remains offshore to the southeast on Tuesday. This will allow for generally clear to mostly clear skies much of the day with dry conditions. A large frontal system over the Great Lakes is poised to move well north of the area, dragging a cold front through the area by the evening. Ahead of this frontal system, the pressure gradient tightens as the frontal system approaches the high pressure offshore. This will allow for an increased SW flow through the day with gusts over the area anywhere from 20-30 mph.

High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s for the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, the NYC metro, and portions of extreme SW CT. Elsewhere along the coast, a S/SW flow off the relatively cool ocean will prevent high temperatures from rising past the upper 60s to low 70s.

Given the deep mixing expected through the day for the warmest aforementioned areas, dew points are expected to remain in the 40s, despite a persistent SW flow. This deeper mixing and warm temperatures will cause RH values to possible reach 25-40%. This dry air combined with potentially gusty winds may allow for the elevated risk of fire spread. As such, collaborated an SPS for the Lower Hudson Valley and CT to address this potential.

Clouds increase from west to east late afternoon with the approach of the frontal system. Any convection well to the west of the area is expected to rapidly diminish in intensity and coverage by the time it reaches the area, though some residual showers or possibly even a thunderstorm remains possible for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, mainly between 8-11PM. The front moves through overnight Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning, but should be a fairly dry passage. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the middle 50s to low 60s, fairly warm for this time of year.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Still seeing some flip flopping in regards to the timing of the frontal system at the end of the week. This is noted in the 12Z operational runs where the cold front slows up on Saturday with the potential for frontal wave development. The faster trend 24h ago for Saturday has now has revered itself. Bottom line, Pac energy is still offshore. The latter of which interacts with an upper low over the Four Corners region at the beginning of the period. Thus, the uncertainty.

At the start of the period, surface high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front Wednesday morning. High pressure remains in control through most of Thursday. At the same time, the upper trough begins to amplify over the Mississippi Valley as multiple streams interact with one another. This will allow backing of the upper flow and the warm front to lift north across the area Thursday night. Area will then be in the warm- sectored on Friday. Low pressure tracking across eastern Canada sends the cold front across the area Friday night into Saturday with potential frontal wave development delaying its eastward progression. So there are good chances for showers/possible thunderstorms from Thursday night into Saturday. Right now there is a low probability of severe weather. QPF looks modest, under an inch outside any localized convective maxima. However, with the slowing of the boundary this will have to be watched.

Wednesday remains unseasonably warm in the 70s as cold advection lags behind the cold front. Expect seasonable temperatures on Thursday, highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Region then is warm sectored Friday, setting up one of the warmest days this week.
Temperatures away from maritime influence, generally west of the Hudson River, likely climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, with potential for mid 80s. Cooler along the immediate coast with onshore southerly flow, closer to 70. The region falls back to a more typical air mass for the time of year over the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure moves farther offshore through the TAF period. A cold front approaches late in the TAF period.

VFR conditions expected through much of the TAF period. High confidence of VFR until 00Z Wednesday.

Winds are mainly southerly and are expected to remain southerly through the TAF period. Wind gusts have diminished late this evening. Winds late tonight into early Tuesday morning near 5-10 kt and then increase to near 15 to 20 kt Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Gusts expected to redevelop Tuesday, near 20-25 kt late morning into early afternoon, and then near 25-30 kt for rest of afternoon into early evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts to 35 kt possible Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

MVFR possible Tuesday night, after 00Z Wednesday, with a slight chance of rain showers.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday night: A chance of rain showers north and west of NYC terminals with brief MVFR possible. A slight chance of showers for other terminals. A slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the evening north and west of NYC terminals. SW wind gusts near 20 kt, becoming more westerly late. LLWS east of NYC terminals with SW winds at 2kft near 45-50 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at night with a chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms during the day. A slight chance of thunderstorms at night. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. A chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms. NW winds gusts 15-20 kt during the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through tonight. Wind picks up on Tuesday ahead of a frontal system allowing for gusts to 25-30kt on all waters by the afternoon. SCAs are in effect for all waters through at least Tuesday evening. Winds drop below SCA conditions overnight Tuesday, though SCA conditions due lingering seas may continue into Wednesday morning on the ocean. High pressure then builds across the waters into Thursday with sub-SCA conditions.
A strengthening southerly flow ahead of the next frontal system may bring a period of SCA conditions on the ocean Friday into Friday night, with wind gusts up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions with the combination of low relative humidity values between 25 and 40 percent and frequent wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will create an elevated risk for fire spread on Tuesday.
Special Weather statements are out for portions of the area and may later be expanded.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomically high tides will couple with a modest S/SW flow to allow water levels to approach or just exceed minor flood thresholds in the more vulnerable locales of coastal Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield during times of high tide early this week.

A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for this evening's high tide cycle in the above mentioned areas, with up to a half foot of inundation possible. There is potential for an additional statement once again Tuesday evening.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.