Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manorhaven, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Unsettled weather expected tonight into Friday with slow moving low pressure. Potential for heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms, mainly on Thursday.

2) Unseasonably warm this weekend into next week. Cold water safety concerns for this weekend with good boating weather, and water temps still in the lower 50s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A vigorous upper level shortwave can been seen digging into the Ohio Valley on current water vapor satellite imagery. At the surface, low pressure spins near the Great Lakes region as it gradually weakens.
At the same time, a coastal low develops near the area and will linger into Friday. This complex pattern will lead to unsettled weather into Friday.

A coastal jet is currently developing and bringing gusty winds to much of the area. For southern coastal NYC, Nassau and Suffolk Counties 35 to 45 mph gusts will continue to be possible into the evening hours. This will be the worst of the wind from this pattern as the pressure gradient weakens significantly tonight as the weak coastal low spins up.

The main impact after the gusty winds will be shower/thunderstorms activity. The best chance for any thunderstorms or heavy downpours will be on Thursday and mainly for NYC and north and east. Guidance is showing strong synoptic lift but limited moisture and instability. Latest CAMs over our area are generally peaking with very isolated 0.5 inch/per hour rainfall rates. While forecast basin average total rainfall amounts are closer to 0.50 - 0.75 inches, given potential training with a possible inverted trough stretching into the area and slow moving nature of the system, isolated amounts over 1 inch are likely.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Pattern change coming up for this weekend into next week. Once the trough shifts east, flow becomes zonal with an eventual ridge building in. Stuck close to NBM and WPC guidance for temperatures which shows several days of above normal temperatures.

While temperatures this weekend will likely top out in the 80s, dewpoints stay down in the 40s and 50s. This will give the air a more comfortable feel. Additionally, there are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s.
The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water.
Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of this week.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure approaches from the west into Thursday with low pressure developing along it. Both features are east of the terminals by the end of the TAF period Thursday evening.

Initial VFR conditions are expected this evening but expecting some MVFR visibilities late this evening for KSWF and for most terminals overnight as showers spread into the region. Overnight, expecting mainly MVFR conditions which transition to mainly IFR on Thursday. Localized LIFR will be possible.

Periodic showers continue overnight into Thursday and eventually become more intermittent late in the TAF period. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible but probability too low to include in TAFs at the moment. Improvement is forecast to MVFR and VFR for all terminals by Thursday late afternoon to early evening except for KGON.

Gusty southerly flow remains this evening for most terminals with wind speeds near 15-20 kt and gusts near 25-30 kt. Low level wind shear marginal this evening with SW winds near 40 kt at 2kft AGL east of NYC terminals. KSWF has light flow near 5 kts with variable direction this evening. Gusts diminish overnight with southerly winds near 5-10 kts. Winds for become variable direction with wind speeds near 5 kts or less for Thursday, eventually becoming a NW-W flow near 5-10 kt in the afternoon for all terminals except KGON.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

End time of gusts could be 1-2 hours beyond indicated in TAF.

Shower timing could be off by 1-3 hours.

MVFR and IFR might be 1-2 hours delayed compared to TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: A chance of showers with possible MVFR. Otherwise VFR.

Friday: A chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions possible, mainly early.

Saturday: VFR. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm with brief MVFR or lower conditions possible.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Gale warning cancelled as wind gusts are well below gale thresholds and are in the 25-30 kt range. All gusts expected to lower to closer to 20 kt overnight. Small craft advisories were issued in place, until 11PM EDT this evening for the non-ocean zones and until 2AM Thursday for the ocean west of Moriches Inlet to match the Moriches to Montauk SCA segment.

Additionally, ocean seas near 5 ft are forecast tonight until 2AM Thursday. 4 ft ocean seas are forecast thereafter for the rest of the overnight period.

Conditions thereafter generally remain under SCA criteria. There will be a brief period Friday and then Saturday night where seas could touch 5 ft on the ocean waters.SCA ocean seas are possible Thu Night into Friday in response to E/SE swells from offshore low and exiting coastal low.

There are cold water safety concerns this weekend as water temperatures remain in the lower 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. A Marine Weather Statement will likely be issued at the end of this week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.