Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 12:26 PM   Moonset 3:06 AM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1006 Pm Edt Mon Apr 15 2024
Rest of tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late this evening. Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Sat night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1006 Pm Edt Mon Apr 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front pushes offshore and south of the coastal waters tonight. High pressure builds in overnight and remains through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

FXUS61 KOKX 160218 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1018 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front pushes offshore and south of the area tonight.
High pressure builds in overnight and remains through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday. The front remains not too far offshore on Sunday as high pressure tries to build in, then high pressure strengthens more on Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A weak cold front continues to slowly push south of the area.
This front will be sagging southward through the overnight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Any isolated showers forming along this boundary are getting south and east of the area now. Water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough axis beginning to pivot through. Overall cloud cover is little to the immediate west as cloud cover decreases quickly from west to east for the first half of the night.

Overnight lows will still be running 5 to around 7 degrees above normal, and used a blend of the MOS and NBM.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
High pressure remains over the region for Tuesday and Tuesday night with temperatures again above normal by 5 to 10 degrees.
Tuesday night temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A broad area of low pressure stretching from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley approaches on Wednesday. Moisture and lift with an associated warm front brings chances of showers mainly in the afternoon. Showers will be more likely starting late in the day for western zones, and early evening for most of the rest of the area. Upper support for the system weakens in the vicinity of the Great Lakes later Wednesday night, and deterministic models are still showing a weak low center developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast with perhaps some mid level shortwave energy. This low is still progged to remain south of the forecast area, but close enough to keep showers likely for most of the area through Thursday.

The low to the south doesn't move much during Friday with an inverted trough extending northward towards us. At the same time, a cold front approaches from the west. Most, if not all of the day will likely be dry, but cannot rule out an afternoon shower. A chance of showers then follows for Friday night into Saturday with the cold front passing through.

There's some question regarding how far south the departing cold front sinks during Saturday night through Sunday night.
Have therefore gone with slight chance/chance PoPs during this period. Weak high pressure then keeps us dry on Monday.

High temperatures through the period are expected to be within a few degrees of normal with the exception being Thursday, when highs will be only the lower 50s.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A frontal boundary slips further south overnight as high pressure builds over the terminals on Tuesday, before pushing offshore Tuesday night.

VFR.

Winds generally will be NNW at 5 to 10 kt overnight. The winds become more NW into the morning and remain NW through Tuesday with speeds closer to 10 kt, and gusts around 20 kt by late morning until early evening. A coastal sea breeze will be possible later in the day, with the best chance at JFK. The winds lighten and remain mainly N Tuesday evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts starting Tuesday may be off by an hour or two. Gusts on Tuesday may be more occasional.

Late day S-SW sea breeze most likely at JFK on Tuesday, timing may be off by a couple of hours with confidence in occurrence below average.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tue night: VFR. NW gusts end in the evening, mainly light N winds.

Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain showers, mostly Wed night into early Thu. E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts near 20 kt.

Fri: MVFR or lower possible with rain showers.

Sat: MVFR possible early with showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The small craft advisory on the eastern ocean has been allowed to expire as seas generally get below 5 ft. Going forward winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through Wednesday.
Winds increase Wednesday night as the pressure gradient tightens in response to a broad area of low pressure approaching. SCA conds become likely on the ocean by the end of the night, and possibly on some of the other waters as well. Winds increase further during Thursday as a low center develops to the south.
Once again, advisory conditions still likely on the ocean and potentially for other spots. Winds diminish Thursday night into Friday, however a lingering swell with on onshore flow may keep ocean seas above 5 ft through at least Friday morning. Sub- advisory conditions on all waters otherwise Friday afternoon through Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
The weather is dry overnight through Tuesday night. A half inch to inch of rainfall is expected from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. No hydrologic impacts are expected with this event.



OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Ponquoque Point, Shinnecock Bay, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Mon -- 12:11 AM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 03:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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