Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nesconset, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Back edge of showers working across the NYC metro and up into southern CT. The area is located right along the cold front that will pass through the area. Any lingering rain should clear Montauk by late morning, with skies becoming mostly sunny. High temps will be on the mild side, in the lower/mid 60s, with a NW breeze 10-15 mph in most places across Long Island and from NYC north/west.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
For Sunday, shortwave energy rotating about a polar vortex near James Bay in eastern Canada will interact with energy in the southern branch of the polar jet, carving out a longwave trough over the eastern half of the country. This will send a surge of much colder air southward behind developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. As the primary low lifts W of the Appalachians on Sunday, a warm front will approach from the south, with secondary cyclogenesis taking place off the NJ coast late in the afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage late Sunday night.

Overrunning rains will develop N of the approaching warm front daytime Sunday, with the best chances in the afternoon, followed by showers with the cold frontal passage later Sunday night.

Temperatures will remain above normal tonight through Sunday night, with lows mainly in the 40s to near 50, and highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Lingering showers mainly across eastern Long Island/CT Mon morning should come to an end by afternoon, with a W flow developing and temps closer to normal. Secondary surge of colder air Mon night will bring temps down, ranging to the mid 20s well inland to mid 30s in NYC, with wind chills 15-20 inland and 20-25 for the NYC metro area and the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key points:

* Below normal temperatures continue on Tue, with highs only in the 40s.

* Temperatures moderate Wed-Thu, with closer to normal values before becoming slightly cooler by Fri.

* Brisk winds expected much of the time, with W winds gusting to 30-40 mph on Tue, and SW-W flow gusting up to 25-30 mph Wed- Thu.

* Much of the time period should be dry.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak cold front will pass through the area this morning, followed by a secondary cold front this afternoon. High pressure passes to the north tonight. A wave of low pressure along a warm front approaches from the south on Sunday.

VFR with brief MVFR conditions this morning as the cold front and associated showers move through the area, mainly impacting the coastal terminals. Chance of MVFR conditions returning to the 30h TAF sites toward 18Z Sunday.

W/SW winds will generally be less than 10 kt ahead of the cold front this morning. Winds will then shift to the W and then become WNW-NW for the remainder of the day. Speeds should increase to 10-15 kt with the wind shift and there may be occasional gusts up to 20 kt into the early afternoon. WNW-NW winds diminish in the evening as the direction gradually shifts to the NE at night, eventually ESE late tonight into Sunday morning. .

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR ceilings 015-025 through about 13Z.

Timing of wind shift to the W-WNW may be off by 1-2 hours.

Gusts up to 20 kt possible 15Z-19Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: Rain developing toward afternoon. MVFR conditions expected with IFR possible. SE winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Monday: Chance of rain and MVFR early. Otherwise VFR. NW-W winds G15-20kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA cond continue for the ocean, with SW winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas 5-8 ft, both highest E. Winds on the ocean waters will diminish by daybreak but elevated seas 5-7 ft are likely to persist through the day on all ocean waters, with 5-footers E of Fire Island Inlet lingering into this evening.

Another period of elevated ocean seas up to 5 ft likely from late morning into the evening on Sunday as SE flow increases to 20 kt.

And extended period of hazardous marine conditions should then begin on Monday after a cold frontal passage, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas building to 5 ft on the ocean. SCA cond likely to spread to all waters Mon night, with W winds gusting to 25-30 kt on all waters and ocean seas building to 5-7 ft. W to WSW gales are then likely on the ocean from Tue into Wed, with gusts 35-40 kt and seas building to 5-10 ft, peaking early Tue evening. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible on the non ocean waters Tue afternoon/night, with seas on the central/ern Sound building to 5-6 ft in favorable W fetch.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Lingering high astronomical tides following a recent full moon will result in water levels in some of the more vulnerable locales across the south shore bays of Nassau and coastal Fairfield counties to come close to minor benchmarks during the morning/early afternoon high tide cycles today. Some locations need less than a foot to reach minor. No statements planned at this time. However, while high tide levels will slowly come down heading into Sunday, a strengthening SE wind ahead of low pressure may provide just enough of a surge to produce a better chance for minor coastal flooding at these very same locations. This is looking like a statement level event, but an advisory cannot be ruled out if winds trend stronger than forecast.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.