Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nesconset, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure will remain the dominant player through the weekend.

2) Water levels will touch or come close to minor coastal flood benchmarks across Fairfield county during the afternoon high tide cycle Wednesday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
High pressure will be in control of the weather through this weekend. A cold front should pass through during Friday, but with not enough moisture for any shower activity over here. High temperatures around or above normal through the period.

Otherwise, a Frost Advisory remains in effect tonight into early Wednesday morning for the SE CT coast where the growing season continues. Cirrus potentially arriving late at night might mitigate frost development, but do not enough confidence to drop the advisory. Any frost everywhere else where the growing season continues is anticipated to be primarily patchy.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Localized minor coastal flooding remains possible for portions of the area during the morning/afternoon high tide cycle Wednesday. The latest guidance continues to support the best chance of occurrence along the SW CT coast. In addition, Bridgeport hit minor flood thresholds today, so kept with persistence and issued a statement for Wed. Elsewhere, confidence was too low to go with a statement.
Despite high pressure over the area during this timeframe, astronomically high tides (King Tide) and an easterly swell are producing above normal water levels. In many cases, less than foot is needed to reach minor coastal flood benchmark.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR as strong high pressure settles across during, then passes off the New England coast Wed afternoon.

NNE winds less than 10 kt should become light NE-E this evening.
Some coastal terminals (KJFK/KBDR/KGON) may see a light SE-S sea breeze during the transition early this evening. SE-S winds 5-10 kt resume after 16Z Wed.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday afternoon through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible Fri afternoon.

Sunday: Mainly VFR throughout the day. Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible late and towards evening from the NYC metro terminals north/west.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the week with high pressure in control and a relatively weak pressure gradient most of the time. The gradient will strengthen a bit with the approach and passage of a cold front later this week, and isolated gusts up to 25 kt cannot be completely ruled out on the ocean waters from late Thursday night through Friday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ011-012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.