Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. A round of wet weather today into this evening, then fog tonight into early Sunday morning.

2. Another round of rain from late Sunday afternoon into a portion of Monday.

3. Unsettled weather expected from Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A broad upper trough across central/eastern Canada down into the Midwest and Northeast US will send developing low pressure across the Great Lakes and into nearby Ontario/Quebec, sending a warm front across the area this morning with warm advection showers especially NW of NYC.

Widespread showers will then overspread the area from west to east this afternoon. A mid level shortwave trough interacting with a southerly LLJ will provide most of the lift. With some weak elevated instability, tstms are possible from the NYC metro area east into Long Island and southern CT, with the greatest chances for NYC and western Long Island late today into early this evening. Rainfall totals of 1/2 to 3/4 inch now expected for NYC, Long Island, and coastal CT, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch most elsewhere, and only 1/10 to 1/4 inch well NW of NYC.

Showers should end late today across the lower Hudson Valley and this evening farther south/east, possibly hanging on until midnight across the forks of Long Island and far SE CT.
Confidence is higher for fog development tonight into early Sunday morning after the rain ends, especially for Long Island and southern CT, where the fog could become locally dense late tonight.

Highs today will be well below normal NW of NYC and a few degrees below normal most elsewhere, with cloudy skies and S winds gusting up to 25 mph this afternoon across Long Island and in the NYC metro area, and 15-20 mph farther inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Sunday morning and early afternoon looks to be mostly dry between systems as a cold front approaches from the west, Scattered showers are possible from mid to late afternoon from NYC north/west. A more organized rainfall event is then expected Sunday night into Monday as an amplifying upper trough sends the cold front across, with one or more weak frontal waves passing well to the south and east. Another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of beneficial rainfall is expected, with lesser amounts of 1/10 to 1/4 inch NW of NYC.

NBM is catching up or even surpassing MOS temp trends. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s, then rise to the mid/upper 70s on Sunday away from south facing shores where upper 60s/lower 70s are more likely.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Low pressure over the Northern Plains on Tue will dive SE toward the Great Lakes Tue night into Wed, then continue into the Northeast or Mid Atlantic Wed night into Thu, passing off the Mid Atlantic coast Thu night. This low should then head slowly E-NE through the rest of the forecast period, with some slow strengthening. Showers associated with the low will move into the area Wed into Wed night, with likely PoP for Wed night into Thu. As the low lingers, with chance PoP for Thu night into Fri as forecast certainty decreases on the exact low track and impact on the local area.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Multiple weak disturbances will pass through the region as high pressure remains to the south. A warm front develops and moves through early Saturday.

VFR initially tonight with chances of MVFR Saturday, eventually becoming more likely in the afternoon. Rain showers will become more probable for KSWF and KBDR terminals late tonight and for all area terminals on Saturday, eventually becoming widespread in the afternoon. Also, there will be a slight chance of an embedded thunderstorm, but probabilities and confidence too low at this time to include in the TAFs. IFR or lower conditions then become likely by 0-3Z Sunday with low stratus and a possible visibility restriction with fog development.

Winds generally SW to NW in the 5-10 kt range with some terminals near 5 kts or less with more variable direction for tonight. On Saturday, southerly winds increase to near 10-15 kt with potential for some gusts around 20 kt, especially towards KISP.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible to refine timing of rain showers and MVFR Saturday.

Conditions could very well fluctuate between MVFR and VFR Saturday.

Occasional gusts 20-25 kt possible Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday late night: Patchy fog develops late. Mainly MVFR to IFR. LIFR possible.

Sunday: Patchy fog early with MVFR/IFR, possible LIFR.
Conditions then improve to VFR before another chance of showers late day with a chance of MVFR as well. MVFR or lower more likely at night with showers becoming widespread.

Monday: Showers with MVFR or lower conditions, tapering off during the late afternoon and evening.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with MVFR or lower conditions with increasing chances of showers afternoon into night. Showers become likely Wednesday night. S winds G15-20kt. Gusts diminish at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
S winds will increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on the ocean and the Long Island south shore bays after a warm frontal passage this morning, with ocean seas building to 5 or 6 ft as well. Cancelled SCA for the eastern Sound and bays as peak wind gusts there should remain under 25 kt. Some 5-ft seas should linger into this evening on the ocean.

Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria thereafter into Wed morning. Increasing S winds on Wed could bring minimal SCA cond to the ocean waters Wed afternoon/evening, especially from Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas up to 5 ft.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353.