Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Next main rain event will be today into Monday morning.
Possible thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening. There is a marginal risk of flooding and marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Rain could linger into Monday, possibly briefly mixing with snow across parts of the interior before all precipitation ends.

2) Another frontal system impacts the region Thursday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Low pressure wave along an approaching cold front moving into the region will bring a chance for rain, with the majority of the rain falling late this afternoon through tonight. This initially looks to be in the form of rain showers with embedded scattered thunderstorms. Stratiform rain later tonight expected after cold front passage.

SPC has place portions of NE NJ and NYC in a marginal risk of thunderstorms where the main threat will be damaging winds.
Lapse rates during the time the front approaches do not look overly impressive, with only a shallow region of high lapse rates and elevated CAPE has decreased from previous runs.
MUCAPE still looks to be between 100-250 J/kg from the SPC HRRR.
Additionally, some model soundings show an inversion just above the unstable layer, and lift does not look overly strong. Thinking is that if any severe storms do make it to the aforementioned areas, they will generally be weakening, especially as they head farther east, with little, if any instability shown in the forecast soundings and models.

In addition, the Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of NE NJ and NYC in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.
Heavy rainfall is possible with any thunderstorms and PWATS climb to 1-1.25", so 1"+ is possible in an hour. However, CAM model reflectivities show that storms look to be progressive and training is not really expected.

With a lingering upper level trough behind the cold front on Monday, some rain could very well linger across the region. Chances of rain early in the day will decrease into late day. With cold air advection, there could be some mixing with snow across parts of the interior. Little, if any accumulation is expected as surface temperatures will be above freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Another frontal system impacts the region from the Great Lakes Thursday morning through Friday night, but best chances for precipitation look to be Thursday night into Friday. However, there is still pretty good spread in solutions among the deterministic models. While mainly anticipated to be rain, differences in timing and positions of the low and cold front could lead to some snow mixing in, in some scenarios. Model solutions should converge on a more solid solution over the next few days.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will move offshore this morning. A cold front and wave of low pressure track through the area from the north/northwest this afternoon and tonight.

VFR through tonight for most terminals. Stratus is possible at the terminals east of NYC, mainly KISP, KBDR, and KGON, which could bring conditions down to IFR or lower. KISP has already seen IFR cigs. These low cigs may continue through much of the day today.
Chances for showers increases north to south through the afternoon as a cold front and wave of low pressure moves slowly through the region. There is a low chance of isolated thunderstorms, with gusty winds, at KTEB, KEWR, KLGA, and KJFK as the line of showers moves through, however, with the low chances did not include in the forecast at this time.

Winds will mainly be light and variable early this morning. A SE to S flow develops by late morning, before winds become light and variable once again as the wave of low pressure moves into the terminals. Low confidence on the timing of the wind shifts today.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for MVFR timing/coverage early this morning.

A late afternoon/early Sunday evening gusty thunderstorm is possible at KEWR, KLGA, and KLGA, not included in the forecast with low chances expected,

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday night: MVFR, possibly IFR with showers, and an isolated thunderstorm possible mainly NYC and south until 02Z. Then MVFR to IFR with rain.

Monday: MVFR or lower, especially before 18Z. NW winds increasing to around 25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Lgt N winds becoming S.

Wednesday: VFR with S/SW flow.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR with shwrs. SW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub SCA expected through this afternoon. Waves increase tonight to 5 ft on the ocean on a southerly flow, then winds increase to around 25 kt after the cold frontal passage on Monday, therefore, a SCA was issued for the ocean waters from 8 pm tonight through 8 pm Monday. An extension into Monday night may be needed, especially from Fire Island inlet and points east. Less confidence in gusts to 25 kt for all other waters, but the possibility exists. Will have to monitor further for the possible issuance of SCAs for these waters.

Sub-SCA conditions expected under high pressure Tuesday through Wednesday. Thursday night into Friday a return to SCA conditions is possible under increased onshore SW flow.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.