Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Models continue in good agreement with elongating closed upper low over the upper Great Lakes will continue to dig down into the Ohio Valley tonight, phasing with southern branch of the polar jet, and carving out an anomalously deep longwave trough (-3 to 5 std) over the eastern half of the country. The closed upper low/deep trough gradually slides east towards the coast tonight thru Monday Night.

At the surface, resultant broad and weak sfc low pressure over the Ohio Valley drifts towards the region today and over the region tonight. A weak warm front, over the Mid-Atlantic continues to approach from the south late this afternoon. Weak secondary low development and strengthening llj to the S and E of LI will have more widespread overrunning rain shower activity working into the area thru early this evening ahead/along warm front lifting N through the area.

Main llj forcing and moisture/instability axis is likely to stay just to the SE of the region, likely keeping isolated tstms activity SE of the area, but an embedded tstms possible this afternoon/early evening across E LI and SE CT. An embedded heavy downpour is possible areawide in a weakly unstable environment, which could bring a localized quick 1/4 to 1/2" of rain. Again, best chance across LI/CT. Otherwise, generally light rain shower activity.

In the wake of warm front and llj, broad low slides into the area this evening, with mid levels drying and with weaker lift for the first half of tonight, resulting in areas of drizzle and fog.

Trailing weak front approaches late tonight, with development of weak low pressure's tracking north along it, as the Ohio Valley upper low slowly slides east. Isolated to scattered shower activity likely along the front, with again potential for localized heavy downpour in a weakly unstable environment.
Moreso the signal is for stratiform rain development in the wake of the front late tonight with deep layered lift ahead of approaching upper low and divergent flow aloft.

Mild temps overnight for most the area (upper 40s/lower 50s)
with cloud cover and lagging caa.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Anomalously deep closed upper low and longwave trough (-3 to 5 std) over the eastern half of the country, slowly pivots NE towards the area, over the region by Tue AM, and to the NE of the region by Tue eve.

At the surface, weak trailing cold front (with low pressure waves) shifts east of the area Mon morning, with stratiform rain slowly tapering from W to E through the late morning into afternoon. With lagging and slow eastward movement of upper features/forcing, rain will likely be slow to taper from W to E, possibly lingering into the late afternoon for E LI/SE CT.
More marked drying not likely until secondary cold frontal passage Monday aft into eve from W to E.

Early highs in the upper 50s on Mon for much of the region, but then strong caa ensues in wake of cold frontal passage Mon aft into Mon Night on gusty W/NW flow (850 mb temps down to -11C).
This will bring in the coldest airmass of the fall season, with low temps falling into the 20s across the interior and upper 20s/lower 30s for coast. With the potential of freezing temperatures where the growing season has not yet ended, a Freeze Watch has been issued for late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The mixed low-levels should preclude frost development for any areas that remain just above freezing. NW flow (15-20G25-30mph) during this time will lead to wind chills in the teens inland and lower 20s along the coast.

Deep cyclonic flow and heart of polar airmass expected over the area on Tuesday as closed/low trough axis slide across the region. This will result in scattered to broken cold pool instability cu development, and can't rule out a few flurries across interior with extended lake streamers off the mild Great Lakes.

Highs will struggle into the lower to mid 40s (10 to 15 degrees below normal) with 850mb tempos of -8 to-9C. Additionally a tight W/NW gradient between SE Canada low and southern high will result in widespread 20-30g35-40mph across the area, and keep windchills near or below freezing for much of the day.

Winds subside a bit Tue night and back WSW with gusts 25-35mph ahead of an approaching weak shortwave/Great Lakes clipper system. WAA flow, mixed low-levels and increasing high and mid clouds will result in a milder airmass (low temps in the upper 20s interior and low to mid 30s coast). Can't rule of a few flurries across the interior and sprinkles/flurries along the coast in waa regime.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key points:

* A fast moving frontal system passes through the northeast Wednesday into Wednesday night. Otherwise, dry as high pressure builds for Thursday into Friday. Another frontal system may affect the region for the end of next weekend.

* Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the time, and up to 5 degrees below normal Friday night through Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A wave of low pressure along a warm front moves through tonight. A cold front follows into early Monday morning.

Sub VFR through this evening with mist and fog. Brief LIFR conds possible at times, otherwise mainly IFR. Additional showers work east into the region toward 6Z, persisting through the morning push with at least MVFR conds. Gradual improvement and return to VFR through late morning for NYC terminals. Sub VFR may linger for LI and S CT terminals into the early afternoon with the exiting shower activity.

Light and variable flow this evening becomes SW overnight, then WNW or NW toward daybreak. Winds may go more WSW or W toward 12Z, persisting much of the day. Speeds increase from under 10 kt through tonight and much of the morning, to 10-15G20-25kt in the afternoon. Gusts may linger into the evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty in extent and duration of IFR conds tonight.

Timing of wind shifts may be off by an hour or two.

Timing of category improvements on Monday could be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: VFR. NW-W winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Marginal ocean seas around 4 ft likely for ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet, and around 5 ft east of Fire Island inlet this aft/eve as SE flow increases ahead of low pressure to the west and a warm front to the south. A few gusts up to 25 kt may also be possible this afternoon or early this evening.

Lighter winds expected tonight, then winds pick up to SCA for all waters Mon AM into early afternoon behind a cold front, gradually strengthening Mon Night, to gale by Tuesday AM with tightening pressure gradient and strong caa over mild waters. Gale conditions likely on the ocean waters, with moderate potential for nearshore waters Tue AM into Tue night. Marginal gales conditions possibly lingering for ocean waters on Wed, with strong SCA elsewhere.

An extended period of hazardous marine conditions is likely across the forecast waters, with at least SCA conditions Wednesday Night through late Friday on the non ocean waters and into Friday evening for the ocean waters. There may be a brief period of gusts below SCA levels on the non ocean waters Thursday evening into Thursday night. Westerly gales are likely to develop on the ocean waters Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Water levels likely fall just below minor flood thresholds for Mon late AM/aft high tide cycles.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for NYZ071>075-078>081-177-179.
NJ...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for ANZ350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ355.