Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. Showers taper this evening across eastern sections as high pressure and drier air moves in.

2. Showers and thunderstorms are possible towards the end of the work week through the start of the weekend, before heat builds early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
An upper level shortwave and surface cold front continue to press eastward and offshore this evening with a weak wave of low pressure along the front. Showers are gradually tapering from west to east this evening, and expected to clear far eastern Long Island between 02Z-04Z. The risk for any lightning is very low as what little instability there is is mostly off to the south and east toward coastal Delmarva and off the Jersey Shore.

High pressure and drier air will be building in across the area later tonight setting up a dry day Wednesday with a good deal of sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 2
The next shortwave and frontal system approach the area Thursday night into Friday leading to the next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. PoPs increase once again Friday night into Saturday as the cold front slowly works its way south through the region. Some uncertainty remains as to how quickly conditions improve with the timing and progression of the boundary. Outside any localized heavy downpours, significant severe or hydrological hazards appear unlikely with this system.

Global guidance is then in better agreement that conditions improve by Sunday, with the frontal boundary having progressed far enough south. Thereafter, mid level ridging over the Midwest begins to amplify, which should drive increasing temperatures early next week. Afternoon highs into the 80s, and perhaps lower 90s for parts of the urban NYC metro, look likely into mid next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure will pass south, then well east of the terminals tonight. High pressure then builds towards the region on Wednesday.

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with any lingering sub VFR conditions at KGON expected to improve towards 09-10z. At KGON, IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible towards and after 02z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with generally SKC on Wednesday.

NNW winds around 10 kt will drop to 5 kt or less overnight at outlying terminals. Winds then back slightly to the NW and increase to around 10 kt again Wednesday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments not expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible at night with increasing chances of showers, becoming likely late north and west of NYC. A chance of thunderstorms. S wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into eve.

Friday-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with showers at times. A chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conds are expected to prevail for the next few days and into the start of the weekend.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place Wednesday and Thursday as lingering 2 to 3 ft southerly swells continue.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.