Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) The coolest air mass of the season so far is moving in for the weekend.

2) A non-tropical low developing east of the Carolinas late tonight into Sunday should move slowly north and remain off the Mid Atlantic coast into late week. Coastal impacts are possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The coolest air mass since late April will settle in to start the weekend. Freeze warning remains in effect for late tonight and early Sunday morning inland.

There is some question as to how much winds will decouple late tonight, making the low temperature forecast a little uncertain.
Straight MOS numbers are a little colder, with more slightly widespread sub freezing temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s well down into western Rockland/northern Westchester and to parts of the SE CT coastline. Due to the uncertainty on wind speeds late tonight, blended MOS with slightly warmer combo of NBM 10th/50th percentile temps fcst which keeps around/sub freezing temps confined to the warning area and to the Long Island Pine Barrens, with lows in the lower 40s in NYC and the mid/upper 30s elsewhere.

Daytime temps should moderate a little thereafter, with highs from the mid 50s to lower 60s on Sunday, then widespread lower 60s on Mon/Tue.

KEY MESSAGE 2
A closed low forming at the base of the passing mid level trough will spin up sfc low pressure E of the Carolinas late tonight into Sunday. This low should then move slowly N-NE, remaining outside 40N/70W but still close enough and large enough to have local impact, mainly in terms of gusty NE winds and some coastal flooding.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR as high pressure gradually builds across the terminals into Sunday.

N winds will be strongest at the coastal terminals this evening, at 10-15kt with G20-25kt, otherwise decreasing to 10 kt or less.
Some of the outlying terminals may become light and variable during the early morning hours. NE winds 10 kt or less expected Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts should be less frequent early this evening before dropping off.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Night and Monday: VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday: VFR. N-NE winds G15-25 kt, highest near the coast.

Wednesday: VFR. NE winds G20-30 kt, highest near the coast.

Thursday: VFR. N winds G15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA in effect for the non-ocean waters except NY Harbor until midnight. N wind gusts 25+ kt should continue longer tonight on the near shore ocean waters, with seas up to 5 ft. Winds and seas should both diminish before late morning Sunday. NE winds and seas gradually ramp back up to SCA criteria on the ocean Sunday night. Seas will continue to build into Monday.

Persistent NE winds can be expected Mon night thru Thu as low pres remains S of the waters. Solid SCA conditions can be expected thru the period, with gales possible on the ocean, especially in the 20-60nm offshore zones.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ005>008.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332- 335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ380-383-385.