Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Impacts are not anticipated through at least Saturday.
Conditions potentially meeting advisory or warning criteria are not expected.

2) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow Sunday night through Monday, however uncertainty remains high.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Dry weather is anticipated through Saturday, with only a stray snow shower or flurry possible Friday night due to a shortwave and surface trough shifting through. Very limited to no impacts with this. Temperatures still below normal, with highs each day at least in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2
A lot of uncertainty remains among the global models with a deepening low pressure system that is expected to move off the East Coast Sunday night, and pass to the south then northeast Monday into Monday night. With this uncertainty the NBM was followed for the probabilities and weather. However, precipitation type and amounts are highly dependent on the track that the storm eventually takes.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR as high pressure slowly builds from the west.

NW winds 15G20-25kt will continue tonight, though gusts may become infrequent or shut off altogether for a short time late tonight. Direction more on or left of 310 magnetic tonight, then slightly right by daytime Thu.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts from about 06Z-13Z may be occasional rather than frequent.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt in the evening.

Friday: VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. WNW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Sunday night and Monday: Still a low chance of snow inland, and either snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast, with MVFR or lower cond.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions on all waters continue through Thursday. An occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean waters this evening. For the non-ocean waters, the advisory may be able to be shortened to exclude most of Thursday afternoon, and for the ocean waters, the SCA conditions could last into Thursday evening due to gusts. In both cases, not enough confidence to change the advisory, which currently ends Thursday afternoon on all waters. Sub-advisory conditions otherwise follow through Friday afternoon before marginal gusts return on the ocean Friday night.

Winds and seas are expected to be below advisory levels Saturday through Sunday night. There is uncertainty with the track and strength of low pressure passing to the south Sunday night, and to the northeast on Monday. Currently there is a chance of borderline SCA conditions on the ocean waters, gusts and seas, Monday into Monday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.