Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurel Hollow, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Coldest air of the season to arrive tonight into Tuesday.
Wind chill values overnight will fall into the single digits to just below zero.

2.) Another shot of cold air for the end of the week into the weekend.

3.) Potential for snow late Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A longwave trough across eastern North America will send the first of several upcoming cold shots through the area tonight into Tuesday. Deepening low pressure tracking across eastern Canada will drag a cold front through the area this evening.
The low will then head up toward the Davis Strait on Tuesday, while high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest into Wednesday. This will also result in gusty west winds.

Lows will drop into the teens overnight, accompanied by west winds gusting up to 30 mph. This will produce wind chill values into the single digits by morning, even some below zero values north and west of NYC. These readings are about 10 degrees below normal. Criteria falls short of cold weather alerts.

On Tuesday, gusty west winds will continue with highs only expected to get into the lower 20s. However, wind chill values will be in the single digits. This is about 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

As high pressure builds in Tuesday night, wind diminish and lows will get into the single digits inland and the lower teens at the coast.

Temperatures briefly warm up heading into Wednesday with high pressure moving offshore and a warming SW flow develops.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Thursday will be the only mild day in the forecast period as WAA ahead of an approaching cold front on SW flow boosts daytime temps to 40-45. Cold fropa Thu night will bring temps to slightly below normal levels for Thu night/Fri, then another cold fropa Fri afternoon will bring in a modified Arctic air mass for Fri night into early next week, with temps 15-20 degrees below normal for the weekend and about 15 degrees below normal for Monday. Low temps from Fri night into Sunday night will be in the lower teens in NYC and single digits elsewhere, getting close to zero well inland Sat night. High temps will not make it out of the teens on Sat and possibly on Sunday as well.
A brisk NW flow during this time will yield wind chills as low as 0 to 5 below for the NYC metro area and the coast, and 5-10 below well inland each night, with max daytime wind chills only in the single digits.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Will continue to keep an eye on a southern stream sys passing to the south this weekend, as models are likely suppressing it too far south via too strong of a polar jet/mid level confluence zone from New England over to Nova Scotia, to the rear of a 50/50 closed low. Deterministic 12Z GFS is dry and 00Z ECMWF gives only a glancing blow with some light snow. Their ensemble means are a little less suppressed, and the ECMWF AIFS and AI- GFS even less so. So forecast carries a chance of snow from Sat night into Sunday night, though it is still way too early to get into specifics.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure builds in through the day.

VFR.

WNW flow to start the night with any remaining gusts becoming more occasional or subsiding all together. Speeds under 10 kt for the morning push, picking up after 14Z, with gusts 25 to 30 kt then developing and persisting through late day. Gusts subside early evening, and winds lighten further into early Wed morning as the high builds closer.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts around 30 kt possible in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Late Tonight: VFR. W winds 5-10 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. SW-S winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: A period of MVFR or lower possible with a band of rain or snow.

Friday: VFR with W winds becoming NW G25-35kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible depending on the track, timing, and intensity of possible low pres.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A strengthening W flow will produce SCA conditions across all waters into Tuesday, persisting on the ocean through the early morning hours Wednesday. A few gale force gusts on the ocean waters cannot be ruled out the first half of tonight. Seas on the ocean are expected to build as high as 5 to 10 ft tonight, highest east of Moriches Inlet due to the westerly fetch. Waves on the sound will get up to 3 to 5 ft, possibly 6 ft across eastern portions. Winds and seas will begin to gradually subside.

Some freezing spray is possible from late tonight into Tue night.

A brief lull Wednesday morning will be replaced by a strengthening SW flow in the afternoon with the potential for gale force gusts by nightfall on the ocean waters.

SCA cond expected on the ocean Thu into Fri morning ahead of and behind a cold frontal passage, with SW-W flow gusting to 25 kt and seas 5-7 ft. An Arctic cold fropa Fri afternoon should then bring SCA cond to all waters Fri afternoon/night, with NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt and occasional gusts to 35 kt on the ocean, and seas 5-6 ft.

SCA cond should continue on the ocean Sat into Sat night, with NW-N flow gusting to 25-30 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt may also be possible on the non ocean waters as well Sat night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.