Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chester Hill, PA
December 11, 2023 5:13 PM EST (22:13 UTC)
Sunrise 7:23AM Sunset 4:45PM Moonrise 6:09AM Moonset 3:28PM
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 111803 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 103 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Breezy and colder today with snow showers fading into tonight.
The weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday will feature a dry spell with seasonal temperatures trending milder by the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Blustery through the afternoon with snow showers/lake streamers impacting portions of the western and northern Alleghenies.
Peak wind gusts will be in the 35-40 mph range.
Briefly heavy and narrow snow shower bands on radar have been very transient as the cross parts of I-80. We highlighted a few of these bands with an SPS earlier this morning. Road temps have climbed above freezing, but duration and intensity (sub 30dBZ)
of the snow showers may not be enough to produce quick coating and flash freeze type situation.
Highs today will be 10 to 20 degs lower vs. yesterday with maxes in the low 30s to mid 40s - but the wind chill will make it feel colder more like the upper teens to mid 30s.
Expect snow showers to fade this evening into tonight as sfc ridge axis slides into the area - lowering inversion heights and backing llvl flow to the west/southwest.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Modified arctic high pressure will dominate the short term period kicking off what should be a prolonged dry spell for central PA. There could be a couple of snow showers or flurries over the northern tier as a mid level trough and reinforcing shot of colder air translates east of the Great Lakes Wed PM.
Wednesday night/Thursday morning looks relatively cold with min temps in the teens and lower 20s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended period looks like it will continue the relatively benign weather pattern. Both the GEFS and the ECENS project upper level heights to be +1 SD Friday into next weekend, which should translate to slightly above normal temperatures.
The operational runs of the GFS and the ECMWF both suggest that a shortwave may dive southeastward from the Great Lakes in the Sat night/Sunday timeframe, which would bring some clouds and perhaps a bit of light precip to northern PA.
After that, the EC tries to phase northern and southern stream energy to produce a potential coastal storm Sunday night into Monday. The GFS, on the other hand, does not phase these systems and shunts the southern stream energy well to our south and out to sea. There is still a lot of time to watch how this potential event unfolds.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Slowly improving flying conditions continue this afternoon, as low pressure and exits the area and a drier NWerly flow helps cigs to rise. MVFR cigs are likely to persist over the western highlands (BFD and JST) this aftn, with MVFR cigs improving to VFR across the central mtns (AOO and UNV) and solidly VFR conds continuing for the Susq Valley.
Moisture flowing off of the Grt Lks is helping scattered bands of -SHSN persist across the NW mtns, and a particularly stubborn band has been impacting BFD with 3/4SM to 1 1/2SM early this afternoon.
Northwest winds will be gusty this aftn, as low pressure intensifies while pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. Have seen occasional gusts of 20-30 kts already, and this should continue through late afternoon.
High pressure will build into the region tonight, causing diminishing winds and bringing an end to any lingering -SHSN.
MVFR cigs may hang on through a good part of the overnight over the western highlands.
Outlook...
Tue...AM MVFR cigs N/W giving way to VFR conds areawide.
Wed-Sat...Predominantly VFR w/no sig wx expected.
CLIMATE
It has been 318 days since the last measurable snowfall (>=0.1") at Harrisburg. This ranks as the 3rd longest run on record.
1. 330 days ending 12/13/2020 2. 328 days ending 01/21/2007 3. 318 days ending 12/09/2023
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 103 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Breezy and colder today with snow showers fading into tonight.
The weather pattern from Tuesday through Friday will feature a dry spell with seasonal temperatures trending milder by the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Blustery through the afternoon with snow showers/lake streamers impacting portions of the western and northern Alleghenies.
Peak wind gusts will be in the 35-40 mph range.
Briefly heavy and narrow snow shower bands on radar have been very transient as the cross parts of I-80. We highlighted a few of these bands with an SPS earlier this morning. Road temps have climbed above freezing, but duration and intensity (sub 30dBZ)
of the snow showers may not be enough to produce quick coating and flash freeze type situation.
Highs today will be 10 to 20 degs lower vs. yesterday with maxes in the low 30s to mid 40s - but the wind chill will make it feel colder more like the upper teens to mid 30s.
Expect snow showers to fade this evening into tonight as sfc ridge axis slides into the area - lowering inversion heights and backing llvl flow to the west/southwest.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Modified arctic high pressure will dominate the short term period kicking off what should be a prolonged dry spell for central PA. There could be a couple of snow showers or flurries over the northern tier as a mid level trough and reinforcing shot of colder air translates east of the Great Lakes Wed PM.
Wednesday night/Thursday morning looks relatively cold with min temps in the teens and lower 20s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The extended period looks like it will continue the relatively benign weather pattern. Both the GEFS and the ECENS project upper level heights to be +1 SD Friday into next weekend, which should translate to slightly above normal temperatures.
The operational runs of the GFS and the ECMWF both suggest that a shortwave may dive southeastward from the Great Lakes in the Sat night/Sunday timeframe, which would bring some clouds and perhaps a bit of light precip to northern PA.
After that, the EC tries to phase northern and southern stream energy to produce a potential coastal storm Sunday night into Monday. The GFS, on the other hand, does not phase these systems and shunts the southern stream energy well to our south and out to sea. There is still a lot of time to watch how this potential event unfolds.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Slowly improving flying conditions continue this afternoon, as low pressure and exits the area and a drier NWerly flow helps cigs to rise. MVFR cigs are likely to persist over the western highlands (BFD and JST) this aftn, with MVFR cigs improving to VFR across the central mtns (AOO and UNV) and solidly VFR conds continuing for the Susq Valley.
Moisture flowing off of the Grt Lks is helping scattered bands of -SHSN persist across the NW mtns, and a particularly stubborn band has been impacting BFD with 3/4SM to 1 1/2SM early this afternoon.
Northwest winds will be gusty this aftn, as low pressure intensifies while pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. Have seen occasional gusts of 20-30 kts already, and this should continue through late afternoon.
High pressure will build into the region tonight, causing diminishing winds and bringing an end to any lingering -SHSN.
MVFR cigs may hang on through a good part of the overnight over the western highlands.
Outlook...
Tue...AM MVFR cigs N/W giving way to VFR conds areawide.
Wed-Sat...Predominantly VFR w/no sig wx expected.
CLIMATE
It has been 318 days since the last measurable snowfall (>=0.1") at Harrisburg. This ranks as the 3rd longest run on record.
1. 330 days ending 12/13/2020 2. 328 days ending 01/21/2007 3. 318 days ending 12/09/2023
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFIG CLEARFIELDLAWRENCE,PA | 15 sm | 19 min | W 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 34°F | 21°F | 60% | 30.10 | |
| KUNV UNIVERSITY PARK,PA | 20 sm | 20 min | WNW 11G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 19°F | 59% | 30.09 |
Wind History from FIG
(wind in knots)
State College, PA,
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