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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 920 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers, then a slight chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 030133 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 833 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will continue to trend warmer than average overnight and into Sunday under strong southerly flow despite advancing rain from a low pressure system. There is a chance of thunderstorms between 2pm to 5pm Sunday as a dry slot advances into the Ohio River Valley and enhances instability. Cooler temperatures return Sunday night into Monday with elongated trough over the Great Lakes.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Evening Update:

Temperatures and dew points have been adjusted up to account for the strong southerly flow with an approaching low. There may be some patchy fog prior to advancing rain with weak moisture convergence noted near the surface.

Previous Discussion:

A new surface low will lift up the spine of the Appalachians tonight. This will return rain chances to the area overnight from the south. Highest PoPs will remain generally south and east of Pittsburgh. Cloud cover, moist conditions, and continued warm air advection will keep overnight lows about 20 degrees above average.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Rain will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning with the passage of the aforementioned low in the near term. The probability of rain for the Pittsburgh region will be high between 6am to 12pm before a noted dry slot advances from the southwest. Overall, precipitation totals through 12pm across the region will range from 0.10 inches to 0.45 inches. A noted sharp gradient in the precip totals has been consistent in the Hi-Res model guidance south and east of Pittsburgh due to a higher concentration in low-lvl moisture and orographic lift.

As the dry slot enters the region after 8am, the latest CAM runs do hint at the possibility for low- topped convection Sunday afternoon with meager instability and deep- layer shear owing to ~180kt jet streak at 250mb. There is a bit of uncertainty with thunderstorm chances given heavy cloud coverage. The range of MUCAPE is very large between 2pm and 5pm (between 10J/kg to 500J/kg). Therefore, the potential for severe storms is not zero with a high shear and low CAPE environment. Gusty showers may be the more likely scenerio and perhaps an isolated occurrence of small hail with stronger, more organized updrafts.

Warm air advection will continue on Sunday, keeping daytime highs well above normal.

A deeper trough will cross the region on Monday, though deeper moisture will stay south of the area. Scattered light rain showers are expected during the afternoon, with some snow possibly mixing in for the higher elevations and north of I-80 with cold advection. However, temperatures will remain warm enough to preclude any snow accumulation. Continued to nudge Monday high temperatures towards NBM 10th given cold advection and cloud/precip.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Broad eastern CONUS troughing is expected through mid-week before ridging once again builds Friday into the weekend. A series of shortwave troughs traversing the flow will keep periodic rain and (light) snow chances in the forecast for much of the week.

Ensembles continue to show that temperature will trend near to just below normal for most of the week, trending back upwards by the weekend with ridging. Best snow chance is expected Wednesday/Thursday with a more vigorous shortwave and stronger push of cold air. However, probabilities of meaningful snow accumulations have continues to decrease.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Scattered showers are starting to appear on the radar (south of AGC) this evening with an approaching low pressure system. With the flux of low-lvl moisture, MVFR conditions have already been spotted at a few terminals and conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight and into tomorrow morning to low IFR/high LIFR cigs.

The latest 19Z run of the NBM depicts 60-80 percent chances of ceilings under 1000 feet late tonight into early Sunday morning, increasing confidence in restrictions between 08Z to 15Z before a dry slot enters. Wind will become light and variable under the weak pressure gradient of the inverted trough.

As the potential of cig restrictions decreases with an incoming dry slot from the south and the first round of rain exits east, wind gusts and thunderstorm chances increase after 16Z as instability builds across the region. Therefore, added PROB30 for -TSRA to a few TAF sites for a brief window (mostly early to late afternoon).


OUTLOOK
Periodic restrictions will continue through Wednesday as cold air returns. Snow shower chances increase for DUJ/FKL early Monday morning as winds shift from the northwest and cold low- lvl moisture overspreads areas downstream of Lake Erie.
Elsewhere, the chance of -SHRASN or just -SHRA remains with a slightly warmer boundary layer.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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