Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Brook, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:28PM Monday July 6, 2020 4:25 PM EDT (20:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:59PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 314 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms this evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 314 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A back door cold front moves across from the east tonight. This front will lift back into the waters on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Brook, NY
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location: 40.92, -73.15     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 061943 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 343 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A back door cold front passes from the northeast this evening. The front will return northward as a warm front on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through the area late this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Tstms will continue to develop over the region over the next few hours. The greatest risk for svr is across NJ (where there is a watch) then into NYC, wrn LI and the Lower Hudson Valley. CIN is gone is most of these areas, and wrn portions of NJ zones have CAPE abv 2000. Some approaching weak upr lvl support as well as sfc boundaries across the region should help both organization and initiation. There is a flood threat with slow moving storms, especially across NJ zones.

Instability weakens by late this eve due to the cooling from tstms as well as the passage of the back door front. There could be some residual shwrs, particular invof the front which will not make very far from the wrn portion of the CWA. The NBM was used for overnight lows.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The front returns nwd on Tue as a warm front. Considerable cloudiness is possible due to convective debris and the return of the front. Some shwrs are possible, especially wrn areas where there is the best convergence and some increasing instability. Embedded tstms chances across these wrn areas in the the aftn and eve. Shwrs and possible tstms Tue night. Although sfc based CAPE is low, some elevated activity ahead of the warm front possible which is why chances for tstms were included across nrn zones.

High temps were a blend between the CONSALL and NBM. Tricky fcst due to the cloud cover and chances for rain. Breaks could result in a quick warmup late in the day across swrn zones. The blended fcst is between the cooler NAM and the warmer MAV. Tue ngt temps were the NBM.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The region will lie on the northern edge of broad CONUS ridging through the week. This will be a dirty ridge though, with a weak closed low over the Mississippi River Valley early in the week slowly shearing/lifting toward the area to end the week. Thereafter, models with better agreement of amplifying northern stream troughing approaching/entering the area this weekend, and likely remaining over the area through at least early next week. Before then, a midweek northern stream shortwave moving through S Canada may buckle the ridge enough to provide a trigger for afternoon diurnal convection, particularly Wed.

The warm front is expected to be north of the area by early Wednesday morning, with some indication of an earlier mentioned very weak shortwave/buckling of trough moving through aloft. This may present a trigger for late afternoon/early eve isolated to scattered convection Wed, although the focus is a bit more vague at this point and (higher terrain, perhaps sea breeze boundary). This warm frontal passage and SW flow will have widespread high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with widespread heat indices in mid to upper 90s degrees as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s.

Heights continue to build on Thursday, but progress of the earlier mentioned shearing southern closed low will have to be monitored as it potentially starts lifting towards the Mid-Atlantic. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this feature and its associated surface wave/low. At this time this feature appears to be far enough SW/S of the region on Thursday, for another hot and humid day. Although a backing wind flow may keep coastal areas a bit cooler than Wed. Only a conditional potential for some isolated convection off terrain and seabreeze boundaries in a likely unstable, but capped and weakly shear environment. If flow remains from the S/SW widespread temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely for Thursday with heat indices of 95-100 possible.

Forecast details become less certain Friday into the weekend, dependent on the evolution of the southern low as it lifts/shears up the coast, but confidence is increasing in a northern stream trough amplifying down through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then to the East Coast during this time.

Considerable model spread exists on the southern low tracking up the coast as early as Friday or as late as Saturday Night, as well as whether it track up the coastal plain or offshore, as well as degree of intensification, and whether it acquires any tropical characteristics. NHC is monitoring the southern system for potential tropical or subtropical development this week, giving it a 30% chance over the next 5 days as it potentially emerges off the Carolina coast. Main threat with this low at this point would be a swath of heavy rainfall along its path as it taps into Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture, but low confidence on any details.

Better agreement that mean troughing will be sliding towards the east coast through the weekend, with a series of surface troughs moving through the area. Depending on timing of the southern wave, very warm and humid conditions are likely for the weekend, with threat of afternoon convection both days. Each successive trough Sunday into early next week, appears to bring in slightly cooler and drier airmass, but low predictability at this point.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A weak cold front slowly drops south, passing through the terminals today. The boundary then returns Tuesday as a warm front.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon could result in brief MVFR or lower conditions, primarily from the NYC metro terminals west. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected into this evening before MVFR conditions develop at all terminals overnight. The start time of MVFR conditions tonight could be off by 1-2 hours. MVFR conditions are then expected to continue into Tuesday morning before gradually improving to VFR by late morning/early afternoon.

SE to ESE winds will continue this afternoon at around 10 kt, with a period of sustained winds 10-15 kt possible late this afternoon, primarily at coastal terminals. Winds then gradually diminish this evening before falling to around 5 kt overnight. ESE winds will then increase to 5-10 kt Tuesday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday afternoon-Thursday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday-Saturday. MVFR or lower conditions possible in rain. Chance Chance E-SE gusts 20-25kt.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week though waves over the ocean remain between 3-4 feet. SCA seas are likely Friday into the weekend with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields owing to a possible coastal low nearing the region.

HYDROLOGY. There is a localized flash flood threat this aftn and eve, mainly from wrn LI to the lower Hudson Valley and points w. Any strong tstms that develop could be slow moving and produce areas of flooding.

A localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity Wed and Thu, as it will be slow moving and able to tap into a very moist environment.

There is potential for more widespread downpour/thunderstorm activity and resultant urban and poor drainage flooding threat during the Friday/Saturday period, but low confidence on details at this timeframe. More details as the week progresses.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and high astronomical tides (full moon) will have water levels approach minor flood thresholds once again tonight, but they are expected to remain just below minor flood benchmarks.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi56 min E 8.9 G 13 82°F 70°F1016.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi71 min E 7.8 G 9.7 80°F 1 ft68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi56 min SE 9.9 G 17 78°F 71°F1016.3 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 31 mi41 min ENE 9.7 G 12 81°F 70°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi56 min S 5.1 G 9.9 89°F 1016.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi36 min ESE 12 G 14 78°F 2 ft1017.3 hPa71°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 48 mi36 min SSW 16 G 27 2 ft1017.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi56 min 86°F 75°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi30 minESE 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F69°F74%1017.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi30 minSE 10 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1018.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT18 mi34 minENE 119.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1017.1 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY19 mi33 minESE 1210.00 miFair81°F70°F69%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S8SW6S7S5SW4SW5SW8SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6NE6NE3N4NE8SE6SE9SE12SE14
1 day agoS9S8S7S7S4S3S5S4S4S7SW6SW5S6SW7SW6SW8SW7SW7S53W5S9
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2 days agoSE9SE8E9E4SE4E3E6NE8NE5N6N5N6NE6N8N10N9N11NE8N10N11N45N9S9

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:32 AM EDT     7.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:05 PM EDT     6.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.976.14.731.30.1-0.401.22.84.45.76.25.94.93.52.10.90.30.51.63.14.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.