Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aquebogue, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening with brief heavy rain and gusty winds. Most favored areas CT and Long Island.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for ocean beaches through Thursday (see marine section below).

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A cold front will continue to track across the cwa from the NW this aftn and eve. Isold-sct shwrs and tstms likely along and ahead of the front, which has already cleared the nwrn portion of the area. SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg has been analyzed, and with dry mid levels, DCAPE is modeled to exceed 1000 J/kg. This will produce a severe wind threat where storms reach the EL around 40kft. The highest instability is across ern areas where dewpoints are highest. Working against convection is subsidence aloft, somewhat limiting the overall potential. The ern portion of the cwa remains in Marginal Risk for severe.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front passes through this afternoon into early evening.
High pressure then settles overhead for Thursday.

Low chances of SHRA and TSRA with brief MVFR vsby/cigs this afternoon, mainly east of the city terminals.

SW winds 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt. Winds veer west late this afternoon, then NW/N this evening as they diminish and lose gusts. Winds remain out of the N on Thursday, with potential sea breezes.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of a shower or thunderstorm with MVFR through 21z.

Sea breeze for Thursday is most likely for JFK and late in the day. Have left out of TAF for other terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday - Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR in the AM with chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Seas will remain elevated on the ocean thru Thu, so the SCA was extended there. Winds are still blw criteria on the south shore bays, so have canceled the SCA for this aftn there. Could get an ocnl gust to 25kt, and any tstms on all waters will be capable of producing higher gusts.

Winds and seas look to remain blw SCA lvls Fri-Mon.

Rip Currents: A high rip current risk remains in place through Thursday. Some areas could come close to high surf criteria, mainly this aftn and eve. At this time it appears that surf heights will fall just short of surf advisory criteria with the swell direction becomes less orthogonal to the coastline by the time the swell height and period increase, thus limiting the threat of high surf conditions.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.