Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aquebogue, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A strong frontal system brings periods of rain and the potential for thunderstorms to the region today into tonight.
Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible. Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph are also expected.

2) Isolated minor coastal flooding and beach erosion possible today and into tonight.

3) A drier and colder airmass settles into the area for Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A strong frontal system impacts the region today into tonight with strong and gusty southerly winds, moderate to locally heavy rainfall, and the potential for gusty thunderstorms, especially across inland areas.

A deep 985mb low tracks through the Great Lakes region today and into eastern Canada tonight, bringing a warm front across the area this morning, followed by a strong cold front tonight.
Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunder move through the area ahead of the warm front this morning. A strong and gusty southerly flow then develops in the warm sector, and showers become more scattered. A low level jet of 50-60 kt moves into the region, and these higher winds may mix to the surface, with the potential of gusts near or just over 40 kt, and a wind advisory remains in effect for southern Connecticut, Long Island, New York City, metro New Jersey, and southern Westchester county this afternoon into late tonight. The low level jet increases late afternoon into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, with wind of 70-90 kt at 3K ft into early this evening. A surface based inversion slowly weakens this evening and these higher winds may mix to the surface with any stronger convection that develops ahead of the cold front.
The Storm Prediction Center keeps the area remains in a general thunderstorm risk, with the slight risk of severe thunderstorms just to the west, through western New Jersey, and a marginal risk across eastern New Jersey into Nassau county, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Any strong storms could produce severe wind gusts to around 50kt this evening in the marginal risk area, and maintained the gusty enhanced wording inland areas. While storms will be moving rather quickly moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible in a short time, and minor urban and poor drainage flooding may result, and the entire area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Rainfall will generally be 3/4 to 1 1/2 inches, with higher amounts of 2 to locally 2.5 inches across southern CT. Given this higher rainfall potential across southern Connecticut have maintained the Flood Watch with a localized flash flood threat. Fast responding smaller rivers and stream may approach or exceed bankfull, however the larger and more widespread riverine flood threat is not expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Isolated minor coastal flooding and beach erosion remain possible with a strong frontal system given the expected magnitude of southerly flow and associated wave action.

The combination of low astronomical tides and 1/2 to 1 foot of surge may produce isolated minor coastal flooding at the vulnerable locations of the south shore back Bays of Nassau and western Great South Bay with the high tide cycles this morning and this evening. Only the upper end of the latest guidance (90th percentile of Stevens and SNAP- Ex) is showing this isolated minor threat.


KEY MESSAGE 3
High pressure gradually builds in Tuesday, settles over the region Wednesday, then departs Thursday. The high will bring in a colder and drier airmass behind the frontal system of Monday.
Temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday night will run about 10 degrees below normal for mid-March. Gusty conditions likely continue on Tuesday, and will produce wind chill values in the 30s for much of the day. Warmer temperatures return for the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
***High Impact Aviation Weather Event Overnight through Monday Night***

A strong frontal system impacts the terminals through Monday night.

Conditions will to lower to IFR overnight as showers develop out ahead of a warm front which lifts north of the area around 12Z. LIFR conditions should then develop through the morning and will likely continue through Monday evening. VLIFR conditions are also possible near the coast with a chance of 1/4SM visibilities, especially in the afternoon/evening.

Periods of showers are expected on Monday with locally heavy downpours possible at times. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible 06-15z, but have been left out of forecast due to low confidence at this time. The probability of a thunderstorm increases in the afternoon and evening and is included in a PROB30 for all terminals after 18Z Monday.

ESE-SE winds gradually increase overnight into the morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, strongest near the coast. The flow will veer to the S into the afternoon with winds increasing further, becoming 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. The strongest winds will likely end up at coastal terminals. Gusts 35-40 kt expected to develop toward 21Z, especially close to the coast. A few higher gusts are possible. Winds will then become W with the cold frontal passage from about 03Z to 07Z. Winds immediately behind the cold front will also feature G30-40 kt, before gradually falling off.

LLWS with winds at 2kft 50-60 kt late tonight through Monday.
The strongest LLWS appears likely Monday afternoon and evening when winds at 2kft may be 60-70 kt, especially at coastal terminals.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for timing of lowering ceilings, visibilities, and showers through Monday morning.

Isolated thunderstorms possible after 06z. Adjustments possible to timing of PROB30 for TSRA after 18z Monday.

1/4SM fog possible on Monday, especially at KJFK in the afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday Night: IFR/LIFR with showers, possibly heavy at times.
Thunderstorms also possible. Becoming VFR following the cold frontal passage from about 03Z to 07Z. S winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-40 kt, highest at the coast. Peak gusts up to 45 kt possible along the coast in the evening. LLWS. Winds decrease slightly and become westerly late, gusts 25-35 kt. Showers taper off overnight with improving conditions.

Tuesday: Becoming VFR. W gusts 25-30 kt.

Wednesday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A strong frontal system will bring an increasing, and gusty, southerly flow to the forecast waters today into tonight. While Small craft conditions continue on the waters into early this morning, southerly gusts are expected to reach gales force this morning into early this afternoon. A Gale Warning is now in effect for all the waters today into tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this morning, and more likely ahead of a strong cold front late this afternoon into this evening.
The thunderstorms could bring higher wind gust to the water surface with the potential of local gusts to 50 kt.

Westerly winds behind the cold front passage will begin to diminish especially by late tonight, with gusts on the non-ocean waters potentially lowering to SCA levels. Ocean gusts, especially on the eastern waters fall below gale force by Tuesday morning. Small craft conditions likely linger on all waters through Tuesday with 25 kt gusts, but could potentially continue into Wednesday on the ocean waters with lingering 5ft seas. Sub-SCA conditions then expected thereafter.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.