Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aquebogue, NY
May 9, 2024 7:25 PM EDT (23:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 6:18 AM Moonset 10:18 PM |
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 539 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and overnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of rain early, then chance of rain late this evening. Rain after midnight.
Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun - E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 539 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal boundary will remain south of the region through Friday night, with a series of weak waves of low pressure traveling along it. These lows will remain nearby this weekend. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 092145 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 545 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
A series of weak waves of low pressure move across the northeast tonight through the weekend. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the region during the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track this evening. Have adjusted PoPs down a bit for the first portion of the evening as lingering low level dry air will slow the progression of the rain reaching the ground. The low levels will moisten as moisture advection increases after 00z.
Low pressure will travel along a stalled frontal boundary to our south tonight. Rain should become widespread overnight. The rain may be briefly moderate at times. Rainfall amounts through early Friday morning may average around one quarter to one third of an inch. Temperatures should average closer to normal with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Cloudy skies with periods of light rain continuing, especially during the morning. There are some models hinting at some drier conditions possibly by afternoon, however with enough low level moisture in place, even if the steady rain comes to an end, we will probably be left with a light mist or drizzle. Overall, still looking at a damp and unsettled day. The cloudy skies and continued easterly flow will keep temperatures in the 50s.
The last wave of low pressure passes further south and east Friday night. Winds become more northeasterly to northerly with some drying starting to take place. Any rain will become more intermittent, and eventually after midnight, start coming to an end. Total rainfall amounts will total up to a half inch or so for much of the area, with lesser amounts further northeast. NW sections of Orange County may receive up to 3/4 of an inch.
Temperatures should be near normal with middle 40s to around 50 for lows.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
*Key Points*
*Unsettled conditions will continue this weekend. While not a washout, a few showers are possible, especially Saturday evening into Sunday.
*Dry conditions currently expected Monday with high pressure nearby.
*Another low may impact the region Tuesday into the middle of the week, but timing, track, and amplitude are all uncertain at this time.
*Cool temperatures this weekend should trend close to seasonable levels next week.
A broad upper level trough/upper low will continue to reside over eastern North America this weekend. One shortwave will pass to our east Saturday morning which should leave behind a brief period of subsidence. Another shortwave quickly follows late Saturday night Sunday. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher probabilities of showers across the western half of the area.
The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also linger into a portion of Tuesday. Uncertainty increases for the rest of the period as a southern stream shortwave moves out of the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic or northeast, but the modeling has disagreed in the last several cycles. Feel the NBM PoPs are too aggressive this far out with the degree of uncertainty and with the potential that some of the system may be triggered by ongoing convection, which is usually not resolved well. Will hold PoPs at chance late Tuesday into Thursday. It is unlikely this period will be a complete washout.
We should be able to refine the timing of precip, if any, in the coming days as the models become better resolved.
AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A wave of low pressure tracks along a stalled boundary over the Mid Atlantic into tomorrow.
VFR thru early this evening. Conditions deteriorate after 00Z as showers expand in coverage and cigs lower, becoming MVFR for western terminals by 3Z, and potentially to IFR toward daybreak Friday and for the AM push, particularly western and coastal terminals. Likely little improvement until early Friday afternoon with intermittent showers persisting thru then.
Additional showers may continue into Friday evening, though coverage and placement is lower confidence at this time.
A general northerly flow around 10 kt today with occasional gusts toward 20 kt which should decrease as the afternoon progresses. Flow shifts southerly or southeasterly late this afternoon as the low approaches to the south and any sea breezes push inland, likely thru 22Z or so. Direction backs easterly tonight and 20 to 25 kt gusts return overnight as the low tracks closer. ENE flow 10-15G20kt persists thru Friday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional 20 kt gusts possible this afternoon.
Timing of S/SE flow into this evening may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of lower category cigs and vsbys, as well as arrival of showers, may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday PM: Mainly MVFR with showers possible. ENE G20kt.
Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.
Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
An easterly flow is expected to increase on the area waters tonight. Small craft wind gusts develop on the ocean and NY Harbor with more marginal small craft gusts which may be more occasional for the remaining non-ocean waters for tonight. By Friday the winds are forecast to slowly diminish as they gradually back more to the NE and N into Friday night. Seas are also expected to increase to 5-6 ft. Small crafts are expected for the western and central ocean zones through Friday night for lingering seas. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels this weekend through early next week. Winds may increase Tuesday towards 20 kt, but think they remain below 25 kt at the present time.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides continue to run high from the new moon earlier this week. A persistent E flow will also aid in keeping water levels high.
Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding, with localized moderate flooding is possible for the more vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories spread along the northwestern and much of the southwestern LI Sound coastal zones. Advisories are also in effect for this evening/night for Southern Queens, Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in NE NJ.
Statements for tonight have also been issued for SW and SE Suffolk as some spots may touch minor benchmarks.
Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding is likely for the Friday night high tide cycle. Given the persistence of the forecast, E flow, and only slight decrease in astronomical tide levels, have issued additional statements and advisories. An advisory is now in effect for the south shore back bays, lower NY Harbor, and western Sound along the SW CT and Westchester coast. Statements have been issued for southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, N Nassau, and N Queens.
E flow continues into Saturday, but astronomical tide levels begin to fall. The most vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays could see another round of minor flooding with the Saturday night high tide. Most other locations may just touch or fall short.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071-078.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074- 075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Friday for NYZ176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006- 106-108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ338-350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 545 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
A series of weak waves of low pressure move across the northeast tonight through the weekend. High pressure returns on Monday before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the region during the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains on track this evening. Have adjusted PoPs down a bit for the first portion of the evening as lingering low level dry air will slow the progression of the rain reaching the ground. The low levels will moisten as moisture advection increases after 00z.
Low pressure will travel along a stalled frontal boundary to our south tonight. Rain should become widespread overnight. The rain may be briefly moderate at times. Rainfall amounts through early Friday morning may average around one quarter to one third of an inch. Temperatures should average closer to normal with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Cloudy skies with periods of light rain continuing, especially during the morning. There are some models hinting at some drier conditions possibly by afternoon, however with enough low level moisture in place, even if the steady rain comes to an end, we will probably be left with a light mist or drizzle. Overall, still looking at a damp and unsettled day. The cloudy skies and continued easterly flow will keep temperatures in the 50s.
The last wave of low pressure passes further south and east Friday night. Winds become more northeasterly to northerly with some drying starting to take place. Any rain will become more intermittent, and eventually after midnight, start coming to an end. Total rainfall amounts will total up to a half inch or so for much of the area, with lesser amounts further northeast. NW sections of Orange County may receive up to 3/4 of an inch.
Temperatures should be near normal with middle 40s to around 50 for lows.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
*Key Points*
*Unsettled conditions will continue this weekend. While not a washout, a few showers are possible, especially Saturday evening into Sunday.
*Dry conditions currently expected Monday with high pressure nearby.
*Another low may impact the region Tuesday into the middle of the week, but timing, track, and amplitude are all uncertain at this time.
*Cool temperatures this weekend should trend close to seasonable levels next week.
A broad upper level trough/upper low will continue to reside over eastern North America this weekend. One shortwave will pass to our east Saturday morning which should leave behind a brief period of subsidence. Another shortwave quickly follows late Saturday night Sunday. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher probabilities of showers across the western half of the area.
The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also linger into a portion of Tuesday. Uncertainty increases for the rest of the period as a southern stream shortwave moves out of the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic or northeast, but the modeling has disagreed in the last several cycles. Feel the NBM PoPs are too aggressive this far out with the degree of uncertainty and with the potential that some of the system may be triggered by ongoing convection, which is usually not resolved well. Will hold PoPs at chance late Tuesday into Thursday. It is unlikely this period will be a complete washout.
We should be able to refine the timing of precip, if any, in the coming days as the models become better resolved.
AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A wave of low pressure tracks along a stalled boundary over the Mid Atlantic into tomorrow.
VFR thru early this evening. Conditions deteriorate after 00Z as showers expand in coverage and cigs lower, becoming MVFR for western terminals by 3Z, and potentially to IFR toward daybreak Friday and for the AM push, particularly western and coastal terminals. Likely little improvement until early Friday afternoon with intermittent showers persisting thru then.
Additional showers may continue into Friday evening, though coverage and placement is lower confidence at this time.
A general northerly flow around 10 kt today with occasional gusts toward 20 kt which should decrease as the afternoon progresses. Flow shifts southerly or southeasterly late this afternoon as the low approaches to the south and any sea breezes push inland, likely thru 22Z or so. Direction backs easterly tonight and 20 to 25 kt gusts return overnight as the low tracks closer. ENE flow 10-15G20kt persists thru Friday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional 20 kt gusts possible this afternoon.
Timing of S/SE flow into this evening may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of lower category cigs and vsbys, as well as arrival of showers, may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday PM: Mainly MVFR with showers possible. ENE G20kt.
Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.
Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
An easterly flow is expected to increase on the area waters tonight. Small craft wind gusts develop on the ocean and NY Harbor with more marginal small craft gusts which may be more occasional for the remaining non-ocean waters for tonight. By Friday the winds are forecast to slowly diminish as they gradually back more to the NE and N into Friday night. Seas are also expected to increase to 5-6 ft. Small crafts are expected for the western and central ocean zones through Friday night for lingering seas. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels this weekend through early next week. Winds may increase Tuesday towards 20 kt, but think they remain below 25 kt at the present time.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides continue to run high from the new moon earlier this week. A persistent E flow will also aid in keeping water levels high.
Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding, with localized moderate flooding is possible for the more vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories spread along the northwestern and much of the southwestern LI Sound coastal zones. Advisories are also in effect for this evening/night for Southern Queens, Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in NE NJ.
Statements for tonight have also been issued for SW and SE Suffolk as some spots may touch minor benchmarks.
Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding is likely for the Friday night high tide cycle. Given the persistence of the forecast, E flow, and only slight decrease in astronomical tide levels, have issued additional statements and advisories. An advisory is now in effect for the south shore back bays, lower NY Harbor, and western Sound along the SW CT and Westchester coast. Statements have been issued for southern Suffolk, NW Suffolk, N Nassau, and N Queens.
E flow continues into Saturday, but astronomical tide levels begin to fall. The most vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays could see another round of minor flooding with the Saturday night high tide. Most other locations may just touch or fall short.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071-078.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074- 075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ074-075-178-179.
Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT Friday for NYZ176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006- 106-108.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ338-350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 30 mi | 56 min | 58°F | 29.75 | ||||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 34 mi | 56 min | 53°F | 29.71 | ||||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 36 mi | 56 min | 29.69 | |||||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 37 mi | 41 min | SE 12G | 55°F | ||||
| NLHC3 | 40 mi | 56 min | 64°F | 29.76 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 7 sm | 32 min | SE 03 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 61°F | 52°F | 72% | 29.76 | |
| KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY | 17 sm | 29 min | SE 04 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 63°F | 48°F | 59% | 29.74 |
South Jamesport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:02 AM EDT 3.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT 2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:02 AM EDT 3.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM EDT -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT 2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:48 PM EDT 0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.6 |
| 1 am |
| 3.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3.7 |
| 3 am |
| 3 |
| 4 am |
| 2.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| -0.2 |
| 8 am |
| -0.4 |
| 9 am |
| -0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.3 |
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:51 AM EDT -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EDT 1.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:46 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:17 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT 1.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:25 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:51 AM EDT -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EDT 1.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:46 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:17 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT 1.90 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 11:25 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.3 |
| 1 am |
| -1.8 |
| 2 am |
| -2 |
| 3 am |
| -1.7 |
| 4 am |
| -1.2 |
| 5 am |
| -0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| -0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| -1 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.7 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| -1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Upton, NY,
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