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Marine Weather and Tides North Sea, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:06AM

Sunset 5:00PM

Sunday January 24, 2021 4:43 AM EST (09:43 UTC)

Moonrise 2:13PM

Moonset 4:38AM

Illumination 84%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Sea, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 240902 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 402 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves over the area on Sunday and slides offshore by Sunday evening. Low pressure approaches from the southwest by Monday afternoon. The low passes south of the area Monday night into Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday, followed by a coastal storm passing fairly well south of the area Wednesday night through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Upper ridging continues to move through the northeast as an upper low slowly moves east of Newfoundland. Surface high pressure currently analyzed over southwestern PA weakens as it moves slowly east over the region through the day.

A dry and mostly sunny day is expected given the large scale subsidence and dry airmass in place. The brisk, gusty northwest winds should begin to subside by the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes as the ridge axis moves overhead.

High temperatures will be a bit warmer than on Saturday, into the low to low-to-mid 30s across the board, slightly below climo for late January.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High pressure moves offshore overnight on Sunday as high clouds begin to stream in from the southwest ahead of the next system. This weakening low pressure system traverses the central US on Sunday, and moves into the OH Valley by Monday evening. Winds will weaken in response to the weakened pressure gradient and shift to east/northeast by late evening Monday as well. Temperatures overnight will be in the upper teens across the interior to the mid 20s for NYC.

Monday should be a dry day, starting out mostly sunny with high cloud cover, increasing and lowering from afternoon into evening as moisture streams in advance of the low pressure to our southwest. Temperatures will moderate a bit, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and light winds.

Model guidance continues the trend of slowing down and weakening of the approaching low pressure system with respect to precipitation onset locally. Thermal profiles per BUFKIT support an all snow ptype at the onset by early Tuesday morning as precip spreads across the area SW to NE. Given the low level dry air that will be in place across the CWA, it will likely take some time for precipitation to reach the ground, perhaps by early Tuesday morning as light snow, at the earliest. As such, grids were updated to reflect this delay, especially across the eastern portions of the CWA.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley gets sheared and weakens as it runs into ridging and confluent flow aloft over the local area. Decent agreement among the models that the low weakens to more of a surface trough by the end of the day Tuesday before shifting SE through PA and NJ Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Didn't want to back off on POPs too much just yet for Tuesday and Tuesday night. As for the ending time of PCPN, will continue with a dry forecast for Wednesday although GFS and ECMWF show light PCPN for some of the area as low-mid moisture remains. Overall lift will however be weak as low-mid level lift weakens while we're still under the influence of ridging aloft and in a not-so-favorable location with respect to an upper jet streak.

Regarding PCPN type and amounts, there's increasing confidence in this being a light PCPN event with liquid equivalents in the order of a quarter inch or less. Thermal profiles support snow for the most part, however whether it be boundary layer temperatures or a weak warm nose aloft pushing in, some sleet is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening for parts of LI, NYC, and NE NJ. Forecast snow totals from late Monday night through Tuesday night are 1-3 inches west of the Hudson River, and up to 2 inches elsewhere.

Another storm system with the potential of greater impacts takes shape Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave moving into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley area strengthens a surface low that probably emerges off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. There is some downstream blocking INVOF Newfoundland as a lobe of vorticity there shifts SE, but this would serve to suppress the surface low and keep it SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Plenty of time to see how models trend regarding the strength/position/timing of this 500mb feature as well as the potential of other factors such as the GGEM's depiction of another shortwave diving SE through the eastern Great Lakes. For now, will introduce low chances of snow/mixed rain and snow to the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

High pressure and dry weather then follow for Friday and Saturday with highs generally in the 30s.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure will gradually build in from the west through tonight while low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes weakens.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

NW winds will be near 12-17 kt with gusts up to near 25 kt expected through this afternoon. Winds and gusts are expected to diminish tonight. NW winds eventually drop below 10 kt late tonight.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments expected. Gust timing could be off by a few hours. Peak gusts a few kts above gusts in TAFs are possible throughout the day.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Late tonight. VFR. Monday. VFR, with MVFR/IFR developing late Monday night with increasing chances of light snow. Tuesday. MVFR/IFR in light snow, mainly during the day, with NE winds 10-12 kt with gusts up to near 20 kt along the coastal terminals. Gusts diminish at night. Wednesday. Mainly VFR. Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NE-N winds 15-20G23-27kts with chances of rain and snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Gales were replaced with SCAs this update for all zones except for ANZ355. Here, the gale warning was extended through 18Z as winds are still gusting over 34 kts. SCA conditions remain in place elsewhere through the afternoon and early evening when winds are expected to subside from west to east.

Winds and seas increase Monday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens over the waters. SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean during Tuesday primarily for winds, and Tuesday night, primarily for the potential of a lingering swell pushing seas over 5 ft. The swell could keep seas up to 5 ft on the ocean into a portion of Wednesday before both winds and seas increase once again Wednesday night and Thursday due to the influence of a coastal storm. Too early to be certain, but a potential of gale force gusts on all waters exists during Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ335- 338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ330- 340. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ353- 355. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . JC/DBR NEAR TERM . DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . JC/DBR AVIATION . JM MARINE . JC/DBR HYDROLOGY . DBR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	25 mi	55 min		23°F	37°F		1018.4 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	26 mi	43 min	NW 25 G 35	28°F	46°F		1018.8 hPa (+1.2)	16°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather	31 mi	48 min	WNW 17 G 21	19°F			1016 hPa	-9°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	35 mi	55 min	NW 12 G 15	21°F	37°F		1020.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	43 mi	55 min	NW 6 G 12	21°F	40°F		1019.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT

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Last 24hr

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2 days ago

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY	13 mi	50 min	NW 6	10.00 mi	Fair	21°F	7°F	54%	1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)

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NW15 G21

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Tide / Current Tables for New Suffolk, Long Island Sound, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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