Sunday, January24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Sea, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:00PM Sunday January 24, 2021 4:43 AM EST (09:43 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 4:38AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 337 Am Est Sun Jan 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Light snow likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of snow and rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 337 Am Est Sun Jan 24 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure slowly weakens over the canadian maritimes through the weekend, while high pressure builds in from the west. The high weakens Sunday night and Monday as low pressure approaches from the southwest. The low passes south of the area Monday night into Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday, followed by a coastal storm passing fairly well south of the area Wednesday night through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Sea, NY
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location: 40.95, -72.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 240902 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 402 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves over the area on Sunday and slides offshore by Sunday evening. Low pressure approaches from the southwest by Monday afternoon. The low passes south of the area Monday night into Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday, followed by a coastal storm passing fairly well south of the area Wednesday night through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Upper ridging continues to move through the northeast as an upper low slowly moves east of Newfoundland. Surface high pressure currently analyzed over southwestern PA weakens as it moves slowly east over the region through the day.

A dry and mostly sunny day is expected given the large scale subsidence and dry airmass in place. The brisk, gusty northwest winds should begin to subside by the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes as the ridge axis moves overhead.

High temperatures will be a bit warmer than on Saturday, into the low to low-to-mid 30s across the board, slightly below climo for late January.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. High pressure moves offshore overnight on Sunday as high clouds begin to stream in from the southwest ahead of the next system. This weakening low pressure system traverses the central US on Sunday, and moves into the OH Valley by Monday evening. Winds will weaken in response to the weakened pressure gradient and shift to east/northeast by late evening Monday as well. Temperatures overnight will be in the upper teens across the interior to the mid 20s for NYC.

Monday should be a dry day, starting out mostly sunny with high cloud cover, increasing and lowering from afternoon into evening as moisture streams in advance of the low pressure to our southwest. Temperatures will moderate a bit, with highs in the mid to upper 30s and light winds.

Model guidance continues the trend of slowing down and weakening of the approaching low pressure system with respect to precipitation onset locally. Thermal profiles per BUFKIT support an all snow ptype at the onset by early Tuesday morning as precip spreads across the area SW to NE. Given the low level dry air that will be in place across the CWA, it will likely take some time for precipitation to reach the ground, perhaps by early Tuesday morning as light snow, at the earliest. As such, grids were updated to reflect this delay, especially across the eastern portions of the CWA.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley gets sheared and weakens as it runs into ridging and confluent flow aloft over the local area. Decent agreement among the models that the low weakens to more of a surface trough by the end of the day Tuesday before shifting SE through PA and NJ Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Didn't want to back off on POPs too much just yet for Tuesday and Tuesday night. As for the ending time of PCPN, will continue with a dry forecast for Wednesday although GFS and ECMWF show light PCPN for some of the area as low-mid moisture remains. Overall lift will however be weak as low-mid level lift weakens while we're still under the influence of ridging aloft and in a not-so-favorable location with respect to an upper jet streak.

Regarding PCPN type and amounts, there's increasing confidence in this being a light PCPN event with liquid equivalents in the order of a quarter inch or less. Thermal profiles support snow for the most part, however whether it be boundary layer temperatures or a weak warm nose aloft pushing in, some sleet is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening for parts of LI, NYC, and NE NJ. Forecast snow totals from late Monday night through Tuesday night are 1-3 inches west of the Hudson River, and up to 2 inches elsewhere.

Another storm system with the potential of greater impacts takes shape Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave moving into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley area strengthens a surface low that probably emerges off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. There is some downstream blocking INVOF Newfoundland as a lobe of vorticity there shifts SE, but this would serve to suppress the surface low and keep it SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Plenty of time to see how models trend regarding the strength/position/timing of this 500mb feature as well as the potential of other factors such as the GGEM's depiction of another shortwave diving SE through the eastern Great Lakes. For now, will introduce low chances of snow/mixed rain and snow to the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

High pressure and dry weather then follow for Friday and Saturday with highs generally in the 30s.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure will gradually build in from the west through tonight while low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes weakens.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

NW winds will be near 12-17 kt with gusts up to near 25 kt expected through this afternoon. Winds and gusts are expected to diminish tonight. NW winds eventually drop below 10 kt late tonight.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments expected. Gust timing could be off by a few hours. Peak gusts a few kts above gusts in TAFs are possible throughout the day.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Late tonight. VFR. Monday. VFR, with MVFR/IFR developing late Monday night with increasing chances of light snow. Tuesday. MVFR/IFR in light snow, mainly during the day, with NE winds 10-12 kt with gusts up to near 20 kt along the coastal terminals. Gusts diminish at night. Wednesday. Mainly VFR. Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NE-N winds 15-20G23-27kts with chances of rain and snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Gales were replaced with SCAs this update for all zones except for ANZ355. Here, the gale warning was extended through 18Z as winds are still gusting over 34 kts. SCA conditions remain in place elsewhere through the afternoon and early evening when winds are expected to subside from west to east.

Winds and seas increase Monday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens over the waters. SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean during Tuesday primarily for winds, and Tuesday night, primarily for the potential of a lingering swell pushing seas over 5 ft. The swell could keep seas up to 5 ft on the ocean into a portion of Wednesday before both winds and seas increase once again Wednesday night and Thursday due to the influence of a coastal storm. Too early to be certain, but a potential of gale force gusts on all waters exists during Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ335- 338-345. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ330- 340. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ353- 355. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . JC/DBR NEAR TERM . DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . JC/DBR AVIATION . JM MARINE . JC/DBR HYDROLOGY . DBR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 25 mi55 min 23°F 37°F1018.4 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi43 min NW 25 G 35 28°F 46°F1018.8 hPa (+1.2)16°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 31 mi48 min WNW 17 G 21 19°F 1016 hPa-9°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi55 min NW 12 G 15 21°F 37°F1020.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi55 min NW 6 G 12 21°F 40°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY13 mi50 minNW 610.00 miFair21°F7°F54%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW8
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Tide / Current Tables for New Suffolk, Long Island Sound, New York
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New Suffolk
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:06 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:29 AM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:57 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:01 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.40.50.91.522.32.62.62.31.91.40.80.30.10.30.71.11.51.81.91.81.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:45 AM EST     1.24 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:09 AM EST     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:28 PM EST     0.87 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:15 PM EST     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.71.21.21.10.7-0-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.2-1-0.600.60.90.80.60-0.6-1-1.2-1.2-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.