Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Sea, NY
May 8, 2024 7:00 AM EDT (11:00 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 5:39 AM Moonset 9:03 PM |
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 605 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms this morning. Showers likely. Isolated tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers with isolated tstms in the evening.
Thu - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Fri - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 605 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front pushes to the northeast while a cold front moves through late today into this evening. The cold front then stalls just to the south tonight with developing low pressure approaching Thursday and Thursday night and stalling over the waters on Friday. Sub-sca conditions are expected through the long-term forecast period with the exception of seas occasionally reaching 5 feet in the eastern ocean Friday through Sunday.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 081011 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 611 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front pushes to the northeast while a cold front moves through late today into this evening. The cold front then stalls just to the south tonight with developing low pressure approaching Thursday and Thursday night and stalling over the area on Friday. The low pressure then moves east of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Saturday before another low moves across late Saturday into Sunday. Weak offshore high pressure establishes for early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MCC which emerged out of PA is weakening as it pushes into NW portions of the CWA Some lightning strikes early this morning just to the north of Orange County and up into the Mid Hudson Valley and Catskills this morning. This complex is stratifying, thus expect showers but with a few rumbles of thunder in all likelihood well N and NW this morning. Otherwise shower activity moves across this morning, especially further north, with another area of stratifying convection emerging out of East-Central PA which looks to scrape southern and southwestern portions of the CWA for the morning commute. All this as the warm front is now beginning its push through the area. Previous discussion follows.
Clouds around this morning as a warm front pushes through that will have some showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder with some instability in the mid levels. At this time the chances for any sfc based convection this morning is low. This however looks to change to some degree getting towards the early afternoon. By early afternoon as the warm front by and large gets northeast of the CWA fx soundings indicate a fair amount of instability in the mid and upper levels. SPC has placed the region in a marginal risk of sever weather. The amount of convective coverage is very much in doubt as convective initiation may be difficult to achieve as some guidance indicates significant drying of the column which would not be conducive for updrafts to survive due to dry air entrainment. Also fx soundings indicate a weak mid-level CAP.
Thus it may be difficult to get parcels to the LFC. With this said, there may be enough to get a few isolated storms to pop based on potential CAPE of 800 to 1500 J. Mid levels appear rather dry relatively speaking, so the main concern with any pop-up storms would be strong, gusty winds with DCAPE values of 800 to 1000 J with an inverted V type sounding. Chose to go with iso to slight chance of thunder with gusty winds wording with regard to any pop-up storms. Winds will be out of the south and should result in a large temperature spread across the region with developing mid to late afternoon sun from west to east. Temperatures by the afternoon are likely to range anywhere from the lower to middle 80s across western sections, to the 70s, with mainly 60s across coastal and eastern most sections.
Overall temperatures average above normal for today into tonight, but there will a wide spread in temperatures this afternoon with a southerly trajectory to the wind. Some 50s are possible or even likely by the start of the evening across the twin forks of Long Island.
For tonight the region should be in-between weather disturbances.
Another low pressure system takes shape across the Midwest with a frontal boundary extending east into the Ohio Valley. This boundary likely approaches towards midday Thursday as a warm / stationary front as low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.
After some clearing late Wed and much of Wed night clouds should increase again towards Thursday AM. It should remain rain free through tonight with temperatures averaging somewhat above normal with lows in the 50s, and around 60 in the NYC and NE NJ metro.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The column is expected to gradually moisten during the day Thursday with more clouds arriving in advance of a frontal boundary to the immediate south and southwest with developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley. The system will move east and with the area being just north of the boundary and low pressure look for the column in the lower and mid levels to remain stable with an onshore flow out of the ENE. This should lead to a stratiform rain / shower activity.
This activity will become more widespread Thursday evening. On and off rain is anticipated for Thursday night. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for much of the region, but rainfall rates appear quite underwhelming, thus flooding related to heavy rainfall is not a concern at this time. Temperatures should average closer to normal for the most part during this time, perhaps a few degrees below average in some spots during the day Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper-levels will have us in a troughing pattern through the weekend with two mid-level shortwaves, one Friday night and a larger, slower- moving one late Saturday into Sunday with high pressure only briefing present between the two. These shortwaves, each with an associated surface low, will bring chances for showers. More rain will be likely across the area with the first shortwave with higher PWATs in place. After Friday, the column dries out more, but in addition to showers, thunderstorms look to occur on Sunday aided by cold air advection aloft from the deepening trough. Temperatures will be below seasonal with highs in the mid-50s to near 60.
Saturday and Sunday will be a little warmer in the low/mid-60s.
A fairly zonal pattern settles in aloft for the first half of next week with weak high pressure at the surface. This will keep us in a mostly dry pattern with only slight chance POPs Monday night through Wednesday. Its highs will be warmer by Tuesday near or above seasonal averages in the upper-60s to mid-70s.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front lifts through the region through this morning. A cold front moves through the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Conditions are expected to lower early this morning, but timing could still be off by a few hours with showers developing with the approach of a warm front, and shortwave energy moving through the upper midwest. IFR is expected with some moments of LIFR possible. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning, however, the chances are low and not included in the TAFs.
Conditions improve back to VFR with the warm front passage.
Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon into the early evening with the passage of the cold front. However, chances and confidence too low to include at this time. VFR expected otherwise into Wednesday night.
Winds remain light south to southeast this morning, and light and variable in a few locations. Winds increase from the southwest ahead of a cold front, and then become westerly and gusty, up to 20kt, behind the front. Gusts may be briefly higher with the initial cold frontal passage. NW winds relax below 10 kts and variable in a few spots Wednesday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing uncertainties with the lowering and subsequent improving conditions this morning, may be a few hours off in the TAFs. There is a low chance of isolated thunderstorms early this morning.
Low chance of SHRA or TS Wed afternoon, too low to include in TAF at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon and at night.
Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.
Chance of showers at night with MVFR.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday night as seas will essentially average around 3 ft, perhaps approaching 4 ft towards early Friday morning for the southern portions of the ocean waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the long-term forecast period with the exception of seas occasionally reaching 5 feet in the eastern ocean Friday through Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
WPC has placed mainly western interior portions of the areas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday. The risk of flooding from heavy rainfall appears to be limited at this time for later this week, and no hydrologic impacts are expected during the long-term forecast period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides run high the next few days with the new moon from last night.
Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight through Friday night for southern Nassau, southern Queens, and Fairfield and Westchester counties with inundation up to a foot. Coastal flood statements will be in place for tonight's high tide for Newark Bay in Hudson county and southern Queens with water levels perhaps just touching minor benchmarks. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Fri evening's high tides in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories and statements likely in similar locations tonight, and perhaps including SW Suffolk and portions of the north shore of Long Island in subsequent evening high tide cycles through Friday. Statements may also be needed for Thursday and Friday evening for portions of coastal NE NJ and Staten Island.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 611 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front pushes to the northeast while a cold front moves through late today into this evening. The cold front then stalls just to the south tonight with developing low pressure approaching Thursday and Thursday night and stalling over the area on Friday. The low pressure then moves east of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Saturday before another low moves across late Saturday into Sunday. Weak offshore high pressure establishes for early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MCC which emerged out of PA is weakening as it pushes into NW portions of the CWA Some lightning strikes early this morning just to the north of Orange County and up into the Mid Hudson Valley and Catskills this morning. This complex is stratifying, thus expect showers but with a few rumbles of thunder in all likelihood well N and NW this morning. Otherwise shower activity moves across this morning, especially further north, with another area of stratifying convection emerging out of East-Central PA which looks to scrape southern and southwestern portions of the CWA for the morning commute. All this as the warm front is now beginning its push through the area. Previous discussion follows.
Clouds around this morning as a warm front pushes through that will have some showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder with some instability in the mid levels. At this time the chances for any sfc based convection this morning is low. This however looks to change to some degree getting towards the early afternoon. By early afternoon as the warm front by and large gets northeast of the CWA fx soundings indicate a fair amount of instability in the mid and upper levels. SPC has placed the region in a marginal risk of sever weather. The amount of convective coverage is very much in doubt as convective initiation may be difficult to achieve as some guidance indicates significant drying of the column which would not be conducive for updrafts to survive due to dry air entrainment. Also fx soundings indicate a weak mid-level CAP.
Thus it may be difficult to get parcels to the LFC. With this said, there may be enough to get a few isolated storms to pop based on potential CAPE of 800 to 1500 J. Mid levels appear rather dry relatively speaking, so the main concern with any pop-up storms would be strong, gusty winds with DCAPE values of 800 to 1000 J with an inverted V type sounding. Chose to go with iso to slight chance of thunder with gusty winds wording with regard to any pop-up storms. Winds will be out of the south and should result in a large temperature spread across the region with developing mid to late afternoon sun from west to east. Temperatures by the afternoon are likely to range anywhere from the lower to middle 80s across western sections, to the 70s, with mainly 60s across coastal and eastern most sections.
Overall temperatures average above normal for today into tonight, but there will a wide spread in temperatures this afternoon with a southerly trajectory to the wind. Some 50s are possible or even likely by the start of the evening across the twin forks of Long Island.
For tonight the region should be in-between weather disturbances.
Another low pressure system takes shape across the Midwest with a frontal boundary extending east into the Ohio Valley. This boundary likely approaches towards midday Thursday as a warm / stationary front as low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley.
After some clearing late Wed and much of Wed night clouds should increase again towards Thursday AM. It should remain rain free through tonight with temperatures averaging somewhat above normal with lows in the 50s, and around 60 in the NYC and NE NJ metro.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The column is expected to gradually moisten during the day Thursday with more clouds arriving in advance of a frontal boundary to the immediate south and southwest with developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley. The system will move east and with the area being just north of the boundary and low pressure look for the column in the lower and mid levels to remain stable with an onshore flow out of the ENE. This should lead to a stratiform rain / shower activity.
This activity will become more widespread Thursday evening. On and off rain is anticipated for Thursday night. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for much of the region, but rainfall rates appear quite underwhelming, thus flooding related to heavy rainfall is not a concern at this time. Temperatures should average closer to normal for the most part during this time, perhaps a few degrees below average in some spots during the day Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper-levels will have us in a troughing pattern through the weekend with two mid-level shortwaves, one Friday night and a larger, slower- moving one late Saturday into Sunday with high pressure only briefing present between the two. These shortwaves, each with an associated surface low, will bring chances for showers. More rain will be likely across the area with the first shortwave with higher PWATs in place. After Friday, the column dries out more, but in addition to showers, thunderstorms look to occur on Sunday aided by cold air advection aloft from the deepening trough. Temperatures will be below seasonal with highs in the mid-50s to near 60.
Saturday and Sunday will be a little warmer in the low/mid-60s.
A fairly zonal pattern settles in aloft for the first half of next week with weak high pressure at the surface. This will keep us in a mostly dry pattern with only slight chance POPs Monday night through Wednesday. Its highs will be warmer by Tuesday near or above seasonal averages in the upper-60s to mid-70s.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front lifts through the region through this morning. A cold front moves through the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Conditions are expected to lower early this morning, but timing could still be off by a few hours with showers developing with the approach of a warm front, and shortwave energy moving through the upper midwest. IFR is expected with some moments of LIFR possible. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning, however, the chances are low and not included in the TAFs.
Conditions improve back to VFR with the warm front passage.
Isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon into the early evening with the passage of the cold front. However, chances and confidence too low to include at this time. VFR expected otherwise into Wednesday night.
Winds remain light south to southeast this morning, and light and variable in a few locations. Winds increase from the southwest ahead of a cold front, and then become westerly and gusty, up to 20kt, behind the front. Gusts may be briefly higher with the initial cold frontal passage. NW winds relax below 10 kts and variable in a few spots Wednesday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing uncertainties with the lowering and subsequent improving conditions this morning, may be a few hours off in the TAFs. There is a low chance of isolated thunderstorms early this morning.
Low chance of SHRA or TS Wed afternoon, too low to include in TAF at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: MVFR/IFR. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon and at night.
Friday: MVFR/VFR with chance of showers.
Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond at KSWF, otherwise VFR.
Chance of showers at night with MVFR.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday night as seas will essentially average around 3 ft, perhaps approaching 4 ft towards early Friday morning for the southern portions of the ocean waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the long-term forecast period with the exception of seas occasionally reaching 5 feet in the eastern ocean Friday through Sunday.
HYDROLOGY
WPC has placed mainly western interior portions of the areas in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday. The risk of flooding from heavy rainfall appears to be limited at this time for later this week, and no hydrologic impacts are expected during the long-term forecast period.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides run high the next few days with the new moon from last night.
Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight through Friday night for southern Nassau, southern Queens, and Fairfield and Westchester counties with inundation up to a foot. Coastal flood statements will be in place for tonight's high tide for Newark Bay in Hudson county and southern Queens with water levels perhaps just touching minor benchmarks. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Fri evening's high tides in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories and statements likely in similar locations tonight, and perhaps including SW Suffolk and portions of the north shore of Long Island in subsequent evening high tide cycles through Friday. Statements may also be needed for Thursday and Friday evening for portions of coastal NE NJ and Staten Island.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 25 mi | 42 min | 55°F | 51°F | 29.63 | |||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 31 mi | 30 min | E 8G | 53°F | ||||
| NLHC3 | 34 mi | 42 min | 56°F | 62°F | 29.67 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 35 mi | 42 min | SSE 4.1G | 58°F | 56°F | 29.67 | ||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 43 mi | 42 min | ESE 2.9G | 58°F | 29.61 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 13 sm | 34 min | SSW 07 | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Mist | 59°F | 57°F | 94% | 29.71 |
New Suffolk
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM EDT 3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM EDT 2.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM EDT 0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM EDT 3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM EDT 2.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 PM EDT 0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
New Suffolk, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.8 |
| 1 am |
| 3.6 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 2.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.1 |
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM EDT -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:35 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT 1.53 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:56 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:29 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT 2.01 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 10:34 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:00 AM EDT -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:35 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT 1.53 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:56 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:29 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT 2.01 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 10:34 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.8 |
| 1 am |
| -2 |
| 2 am |
| -1.8 |
| 3 am |
| -1.3 |
| 4 am |
| -0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| -0.1 |
| 11 am |
| -0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Upton, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE