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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1158 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain and snow showers early, then chance of rain and snow showers. Slight chance of rain and snow showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

ANZ300 1158 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A low strengthens well offshore today with an upper level disturbance moving across the local waters. Tonight, the low moves well out into the atlantic with weak high pressure moving in. This high pressure area quickly weakens and gives way to a weakening low pressure area approaching Thursday. A warm front will lift north of the region Friday into Saturday with surface high pressure in control. A strong frontal system approaches from the west Sunday with its associated cold front moving across overnight Sunday.

FXUS61 KOKX 061756 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1256 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
A low strengthens well offshore today with an upper level disturbance moving across the local area. Tonight, the low moves well out into the Atlantic with weak high pressure moving in.
This high pressure area quickly weakens though and gives way to a weakening low pressure area approaching Thursday. A warm front will lift north of the region Friday into Saturday with surface high pressure in control. A strong frontal system approaches from the west Sunday with its associated cold front moving across overnight Sunday. High pressure returns for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Snow and rain showers continue to move through the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT, with lighter returns being seen on radar farther south and east. These showers will continue to be light as they move through the area.

The primary forcing for these showers will come from mid level height falls as a trough moves across the area. Mid level positive vorticity advection will be taking place, enhancing lift. POPs are taken from a consensus of the mesoscale models and their associated reflectivity fields.

Meanwhile, a low strengthens and models convey a deepening of 10-14 mb during the day as it passes well southeast of the area.
This will steepen the pressure gradient and make for breezy NW winds for today. The trough aloft and these winds will make for a colder than normal day, as forecast highs only reach the upper 30s to lower 40s. Taking the winds into account, the wind chills this afternoon are forecast to be mainly around 30 to 35 degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
For tonight, the low moves well out into the Atlantic with high pressure moving in from the west. This high pressure area will be relatively weak with its core staying well south and west of the area.

The high pressure area will quickly weaken though and give way to an approaching wave of low pressure on Thursday. This wave of low pressure will also weaken. Rain and snow showers are possible once again but POPs are less, just slight chance, with less vertical forcing.

Temperatures tonight for lows are forecast to range from the lower 20s to near 30. Forecast highs on Thursday are in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Thursday night into Saturday will have weather driven primarily by a ridge building in from the west with surface high pressure to our south. Warm air advection at 850mb is expected, with Friday's 850mb temps at 3-4C while Saturday warms to 8-10C which is 7-9C above average. Warm surface temperatures will also be aided by a southerly flow returning late Friday into Saturday with the passage of a warm front. Followed the NBM for temperatures during this timeframe as it captured the warming trend well. High temperatures for coastal areas in the upper-40s to near 50 on Friday warming into the low/mid-50s on Saturday while high temperatures for interior areas are in the mid-40s on Friday warming into the low-50s on Saturday. No precip is expected Thursday night through Saturday. This will bring highs about 5-10 degrees above average on Saturday.

On Saturday a Colorado low develops. Where? That's the million dollar question. The latest guidance have quite diverging solutions.
The 00Z ECMWF, 00Z GFS and 00Z GDPS all have one or more surface lows developing in different locations. The GFS has a low developing in the Central Great Plains moving into Canada via the Great Lakes on Sunday. The GDPS has the same thing, except the low fast tracks into the Great Lakes late Saturday with a stronger low developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley before tracking through our CWA overnight Sunday into Monday morning. The ECMWF has three different areas of low pressure simultaneously as the front approaches us late Sunday into early Monday before deciding on growing a stronger low into New England. The ICON and UKMET both agree with the GFS solution, so leaning towards that solution for precip types which would have the event remaining primarily a rain event with temperatures cooling enough for snow only after the precip has exited. All global guidance do agree on several factors, however. That all show a strong trough that inverts right before passing through late Sunday into Monday and a strong pressure gradient with and preceding a cold front.

The inverted trough would signal a more potent system, so moderate to heavy rain may occur at times as the line of rain moves through late Sunday into early Monday. NBM deterministic and LREF mean both show about 1-1.5" of rain. NBM Probabilities greater than 2" are less than 10% everywhere except northwestern zones around 20-30% chance. The though is a quick shot of moderate or heavy rain, but not lasting long enough to create any significant concerns for flooding. As of now, WPC has us under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

The cold front is currently expected to pass through overnight Sunday into Monday. Ahead of the front a strong LLJ develops with 925mb winds around 60-80 knots. This will translate to southerly winds at the surface increasing preceding the front Sunday afternoon and reaching their peak late Sunday night just before the front with wind gusts around 40-45 mph currently forecasted. After the front winds take a turn from the west with some lower gusts sticking around before diminishing Monday night.

Zonal flow takes over on Tuesday along with surface high pressure. Temperatures will be near normal.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pres builds towards the area thru tngt, and sets up south of the region on Thu.

Mainly VFR today although CIGs around 3500 ft. MVFR N of the NYC terminals with lower CIGs. Some flurries/sprinkles can be expected, but VIS generally expected to remain VFR.

VFR tngt, then CIGS around 3000 ft develop during the day on Thu. Some light rain and/or snow is possible.

Increasing NW winds into this eve, then gradually decreasing overnight. Winds backing to the W thru Thu, but speeds mainly blw 12 kt.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible if -SHRA/-SHSN look to produce MVFR or lower. Gusts may only be ocnl thru this eve.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Rest of Thursday: Mainly MVFR. Slight chance of -RA/-SN.
Winds becoming wly by 00Z Fri.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: IFR with RA. S winds gusting to around 40 kt. LLWS likely.

Monday: VFR with NW winds 15-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA remains as is for ocean this afternoon into tonight. Sub-SCA conditions otherwise for the short term for non-ocean waters and for Thursday for all waters.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday night with ocean seas averaging close to 3 ft. Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft conditions quickly going to Gales in all likelihood by later in the day. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues expected through Saturday night.

1.0-1.5" of rain is possible Sunday night into Monday morning. At this time only minor and localized hydrologic impacts appear possible, though confidence remains low this far out.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.

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