NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Continued dry, comfortable, and warm.
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Slow 500mb height rises expected today as upper level ridge drifts over the upper Midwest. Surface high pressure will move across the Great Lakes, providing an east-northeast surface flow, which will keep surface dewpoints in the comfortable range. With lots of sun, deep mixing, and a dry surface, temperatures across the region will warm into the mid to upper 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and hot Sunday.
- Rain chances slowly increase Monday.
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Upper level ridging will continue on Sunday as an interesting blocking pattern develops. A cutoff low will develop over the Atlantic, off the NJ/New England coast. As this low deepens, another weak upper low will dig into the Midwest. This will place the region in an area of strong subsidence between the systems. Low level warm advection will increase Sunday as the flow becomes southerly. However, lots of dry air will be advected into the region in the mid and upper levels with a northerly flow on the backside of the Atlantic low. This should allow temperatures to warm even more on Sunday with deep mixing, lots of sunshine and dewpoints holding relatively low. Sunday looks like a good day to go above the NBM mean. Latest NBM probs for temps > 90 are 60 to 80% for locations south of I-80 and west of the ridges. Think going with the NBM 75th percentile for highs on Sunday is a good bet.

Models are still trying to figure out what to do with the Atlantic upper low on Monday. There is some difference in the clustering, but the hedge is toward the upper low remaining near the east coast with a shift northward on Monday afternoon.
This solution would slow and weaken the trough to the west, leading toward a drier day with less cloud cover. This would also point to warmer highs on Monday as well.

NBM brings PoPs into OH/N WV Monday morning then spreads them northeastward in the afternoon. Seeing likely PoPs in the far western Ohio counties Tuesday afternoon as well. Looking at the NBM probs, rainfall looks light. Probs of >0.01 inches Monday afternoon generally range from 20 to 60%, however, looking at the probs >0.10 the numbers drop to 10 to 40%. So the risk for rainfall is increasing Monday, due to the approaching trough from the west, but the rainfall looks to be light as the trough is weakening and flattening as it bangs into the subsidence to the west of the Atlantic upper low.

Temps will be a little tricky on Monday depending on how fast the cloud cover spreads across the region. Latest NBM is leaning warmer north and east of the areas of higher PoPs and this looks reasonable.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- A few rounds of disturbances pass into the middle of next week.
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Increased rain chances continue through mid-week as a series of disturbances cross the region under a low amplitude trough under-cut by warm moist southwest flow. This pattern is climatologically supportive of severe weather chances, although many of the details may not be resolved until next week draws closer. Machine learning continues to paint a broad-brushed, low probability severe threat by mid-week.

With flow aloft extending downstream of the Canadian Rockies, prominent wildfire smoke could make another return to the Pittsburgh region, though fine details are usually resolved with two days lead time.

As of the most recent update, it appears that clusters are backing off the idea of extreme heat in the northeast to start off August. All clusters now retrograde the ridge axis back into the west, maintaining troughing in the east. This setup is less susceptible to extreme heat, but CPC maintains the moderate risk of excessive heat for now. Will continue to monitor for changes in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR is expected through the TAF period with high pressure centered across the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region. The CU rule and model soundings indicate a few diurnal cumulus clouds should develop today. Wind will be light out of the east.

Outlook
VFR will continue through the weekend under high pressure.
Periodic restriction potential in showers/thunderstorms returns Monday through Wednesday with a slow moving trough of low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.