Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Arthur Estates, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and storms today ahead of a cold front - Training showers and storms can lead localized flooding north of Pittsburgh - Temperatures remain above-average through dawn -------------------------------------------------------------------

Evening update: The radar depicts localized heavy rainfall north of Pittsburgh is currently ongoing and will likely continue over the next 6 hours with the passage a low pressure system over the Great Lakes.

Some areas could receive an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain and create isolated flooding, especially in urban communities and along shallow creeks and streams. Portions of the Cleveland, OH's County Warning Area (CWA) are already reporting flooding just south of the city and are under a Flash Flood Warning.
Flooding concerns will likely remain elevated through 2am with a deep warm cloud layer, elevated PWATS, and weak shear to prompt slow moving showers and storms. Between 2am to 4am, mid to upper-level dry air are anticipated to venture into the region from the west. Rain will likely still be ongoing, but moderate to heavy rain rates will likely decrease.

Overnight temperatures are expected to trend above average within the warm sector.

The passage of the cold front is expected to be positioned just south of Cleveland around 6am.



SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler but dry for the weekend -------------------------------------------------------------------

Showers are expected to wind down from west to east by early Saturday morning as our second upper wave and the associated cold front clear the region. Cooler and drier air overspreads the region behind the front. The longwave trough that brought rain to the region is finally expected to cross the region Saturday. High temperatures are expected to be trimmed and fall just a few degrees below normal, potentially our first below average high since April 17th. Breezy conditions are possible Saturday due to cold air advection and a tightened pressure gradient.

Surface high pressure filters in and continues dry weather Sunday.
500mb heights finally begin to rise as the upper trough kicks eastward and ridging begins to slide in from the central CONUS.
Despite these height rises, high temperatures are not expected to rise much and we could end up with two days in a row of below average highs. Largely clear skies and light winds Sunday night likely lead to efficient radiational cooling and a chilly start to our next work week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures to start next week - Active weather possible midweek but dependent on trough speed -------------------------------------------------------------------

Clustered ensembles still disagree on exactly how eager that departing trough is to move eastward into the Atlantic. There is a slight signal today for a possibly faster departure leading to an earlier onset of ridging but the Euro is the notable exception.
Despite the uncertainty on speed, it remains highly likely that heights rise on Monday and temperatures bounce back above normal.

Clustered ensembles shunt the ridge eastward on Tuesday, raising temperatures once again, as an upper wave traverses the central CONUS. This wave brings potential for active weather and possible severe threats next week but the picture of its arrival is far from clear. Clustered ensembles still have the base of this trough in the four corners region by Tuesday. From there, they paint a disjointed picture of the wave becoming unphased, with the base out west and remainder riding through the Great Lakes and flattening the eastern CONUS ridge. The picture becomes even muddier by Wednesday, with signals for a possibly weaker and slower wave becoming equally as likely.

As it stands now it seems likely that POPs will return Tuesday into Tuesday night, but this and the evolution of the long-range forecast largely remain clouded by the uncertainty in the amplitude, speed and evolution of the wave packet.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers, and MVFR restrictions, will increase again this evening as low pressure, and an associated cold front, track across the Upper Ohio Valley region. Enough instability is in place this evening to maintain a few thunderstorms, mainly for FKL, DUJ, and LBE, along an outflow boundary. Instability will diminish by late evening, with thunderstorms ending. Deterioration to IFR is expected overnight as low level moisture increases with the showers.

The low/cold front should exit the area Saturday morning, though low level moisture in place should support IFR conditions continuing. Mixing and some dry advection should lift cigs back to MVFR by mid to late morning for most airports, though a crossing upper trough and cold advection should maintain the MVFR cigs through Saturday evening.

Outlook...
VFR is expected Sunday and Monday under high pressure.
Restrictions, and showers/thunderstorms, return Tuesday and Tuesday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. VFR returns Wednesday under high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.