Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Arthur Estates, PA
March 29, 2024 9:14 AM EDT (13:14 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:06 AM Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 11:32 PM Moonset 7:58 AM |
LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 1033 Pm Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Overnight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast and diminishing to 10 knots or less overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 41 degrees.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 41 degrees.
LEZ100
No data
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 291137 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 737 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Remaining rain and snow showers south of Pittsburgh will end this morning. Otherwise, building high pressure will result in dry weather through this evening. Low pressure will cross the region Saturday and Saturday night, with showers and a few thunderstorms. A series of crossing low pressure systems will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region later Sunday through Tuesday, with heavy rain and severe storms possible.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Weak shortwave exits this morning - Dry and seasonable weather the rest of the day
---------------------------------------------------------------
A crossing shortwave trough will continue to support scattered rain showers south of I 70 early this morning. Areas across the higher terrain should see scattered snow showers with colder air in place, though any accumulation is expected to be less than an inch. There is a slight potential of a brief instance of light freezing rain in eastern Tucker county as the moisture depth decreases and exits the dendritic growth zone.
Otherwise, high pressure will build in behind the exiting shortwave, with dry weather expected. A tight pressure gradient and mixing should result in NW wind gusts from 25 to 30 mph today for most of the area. The higher terrain areas across eastern Tucker county WV could see gusts up to 50 mph, where the wind advisory remains in effect through 8 PM. High temperatures are expected to be within a couple of degrees of seasonable levels.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and isolated storms return late tonight and Saturday - Lull in precipitation later Saturday night through early Sunday morning - Warm front advancing north returns showers/storms later Sunday and Sunday night - Marginal potential for severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening across portions of OH and WV -------------------------------------------------------------------
A shortwave trough, and associated surface low pressure, will track out of the Central CONUS, approaching the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region late tonight. Showers will overspread the region with increasing moisture and ascent as the low tracks across the region. The region is also expected to be in the left front quadrant of an upper jet, enhancing the ascent. A rather fast progression of the low should help to limit rainfall amounts, with a quarter to a half inch expected.
SREF/HRRR progs indicate the low will track across northern Ohio and NW PA. Limited instability south of the low could result in a few thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon. Gusty wind will be possible if any storms become organized with a strong wind field aloft and shear in place.
The low is expected to exit eastward Saturday night, as it pulls a surface cold front across the region. This front is then expected to stall across the Ohio Valley region late Saturday night, before lifting back northward later Sunday and Sunday night in advance of another surface low across the Midwest. A band of more significant rainfall is expected Sunday night as the front continues to advance northward. Elevated instability could also support scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and overnight, which would enhance precipitation rates. In addition, SPC has placed a portion of SE OH and northern WV in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with moderate instability and increasing shear in the vicinity of the Sunday afternoon and evening.
The rainfall Saturday, and Sunday night, could set up a potential for flooding early in the week.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with with a strong low pressure system - Severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday - Colder and windy Wednesday and Thursday with rain and snow showers -------------------------------------------------------------------
The warm front is expected to stall across the Upper Ohio Valley region again on Monday as the flow aloft becomes parallel to the front. Heavy rain will be possible where the front stalls, though uncertainty exists in its exact location. Thunderstorms will also be possible, especially south of the front.
An upper trough is progged to advance out of the Midwest Monday.
Southwest flow ahead of the trough should push the warm front northward Monday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. A low level jet will also enhance rainfall rates, with elevated instability maintaining a few thunderstorms. This would bring an increased flood potential. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Tuesday as the low tracks across the Lower Great Lakes region. Increasing shear and instability could result in a potential for strong to severe storms again on Tuesday. SPC has placed roughly the southern half of the forecast area in the day 5 severe weather outlook.
The surface low is expected to become nearly stationary through Wednesday, as it pulls a cold front across the region. Cold advection behind the front, and a crossing upper low, will maintain rain and snow shower chances Wednesday and Thursday.
The upper low should begin to exit the region late Thursday.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Light showers around MGW have tapered off this morning as a weak upper shortwave departs the area, with only some mid-level clouds lingering. These clouds should clear out through the morning and VFR conditions prevail at all terminals throughout the TAF period. Daytime mixing will allow northwest winds to increasing to around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots during afternoon hours before settling again in the evening.
Mostly clear skies overnight give way to increasing mid-level clouds and rain chances from west to east early Saturday morning as another weak shortwave approaches. Mention of showers was limited at this time to ZZV and PIT (the latter having a 30-hr TAF), as the rest of the terminals shouldn't see the increase in clouds and rain until just beyond the current TAF period.
Outlook
Widespread restrictions and showers return Saturday with crossing low pressure. VFR briefly returns Sunday under high pressure, before restrictions in showers/possible tstms return Sunday night and Monday with a warm front.
HYDROLOGY
Widespread rounds of rainfall are expected beginning Saturday and continuing into the middle part of next week. The initial rounds should eventually saturate the ground, resulting in an increased flood potential as additional showers and thunderstorms occur. Ensemble probabilities for >2" of total rainfall have increased (40-70%) areawide, but especially across West Virginia, with high end amounts of 3-4" not out of the question there. This may result in areas of flooding or flash flooding, especially on Monday into Tuesday, when our area has been placed in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for excessive rainfall.
Rises on area rivers from prolonged excessive rainfall are also looking increasingly possible as ensemble probabilities continue to trend higher by the beginning of next week.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ514.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 737 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
Remaining rain and snow showers south of Pittsburgh will end this morning. Otherwise, building high pressure will result in dry weather through this evening. Low pressure will cross the region Saturday and Saturday night, with showers and a few thunderstorms. A series of crossing low pressure systems will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region later Sunday through Tuesday, with heavy rain and severe storms possible.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Weak shortwave exits this morning - Dry and seasonable weather the rest of the day
---------------------------------------------------------------
A crossing shortwave trough will continue to support scattered rain showers south of I 70 early this morning. Areas across the higher terrain should see scattered snow showers with colder air in place, though any accumulation is expected to be less than an inch. There is a slight potential of a brief instance of light freezing rain in eastern Tucker county as the moisture depth decreases and exits the dendritic growth zone.
Otherwise, high pressure will build in behind the exiting shortwave, with dry weather expected. A tight pressure gradient and mixing should result in NW wind gusts from 25 to 30 mph today for most of the area. The higher terrain areas across eastern Tucker county WV could see gusts up to 50 mph, where the wind advisory remains in effect through 8 PM. High temperatures are expected to be within a couple of degrees of seasonable levels.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and isolated storms return late tonight and Saturday - Lull in precipitation later Saturday night through early Sunday morning - Warm front advancing north returns showers/storms later Sunday and Sunday night - Marginal potential for severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening across portions of OH and WV -------------------------------------------------------------------
A shortwave trough, and associated surface low pressure, will track out of the Central CONUS, approaching the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region late tonight. Showers will overspread the region with increasing moisture and ascent as the low tracks across the region. The region is also expected to be in the left front quadrant of an upper jet, enhancing the ascent. A rather fast progression of the low should help to limit rainfall amounts, with a quarter to a half inch expected.
SREF/HRRR progs indicate the low will track across northern Ohio and NW PA. Limited instability south of the low could result in a few thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon. Gusty wind will be possible if any storms become organized with a strong wind field aloft and shear in place.
The low is expected to exit eastward Saturday night, as it pulls a surface cold front across the region. This front is then expected to stall across the Ohio Valley region late Saturday night, before lifting back northward later Sunday and Sunday night in advance of another surface low across the Midwest. A band of more significant rainfall is expected Sunday night as the front continues to advance northward. Elevated instability could also support scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and overnight, which would enhance precipitation rates. In addition, SPC has placed a portion of SE OH and northern WV in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with moderate instability and increasing shear in the vicinity of the Sunday afternoon and evening.
The rainfall Saturday, and Sunday night, could set up a potential for flooding early in the week.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday with with a strong low pressure system - Severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday - Colder and windy Wednesday and Thursday with rain and snow showers -------------------------------------------------------------------
The warm front is expected to stall across the Upper Ohio Valley region again on Monday as the flow aloft becomes parallel to the front. Heavy rain will be possible where the front stalls, though uncertainty exists in its exact location. Thunderstorms will also be possible, especially south of the front.
An upper trough is progged to advance out of the Midwest Monday.
Southwest flow ahead of the trough should push the warm front northward Monday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected. A low level jet will also enhance rainfall rates, with elevated instability maintaining a few thunderstorms. This would bring an increased flood potential. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Tuesday as the low tracks across the Lower Great Lakes region. Increasing shear and instability could result in a potential for strong to severe storms again on Tuesday. SPC has placed roughly the southern half of the forecast area in the day 5 severe weather outlook.
The surface low is expected to become nearly stationary through Wednesday, as it pulls a cold front across the region. Cold advection behind the front, and a crossing upper low, will maintain rain and snow shower chances Wednesday and Thursday.
The upper low should begin to exit the region late Thursday.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Light showers around MGW have tapered off this morning as a weak upper shortwave departs the area, with only some mid-level clouds lingering. These clouds should clear out through the morning and VFR conditions prevail at all terminals throughout the TAF period. Daytime mixing will allow northwest winds to increasing to around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots during afternoon hours before settling again in the evening.
Mostly clear skies overnight give way to increasing mid-level clouds and rain chances from west to east early Saturday morning as another weak shortwave approaches. Mention of showers was limited at this time to ZZV and PIT (the latter having a 30-hr TAF), as the rest of the terminals shouldn't see the increase in clouds and rain until just beyond the current TAF period.
Outlook
Widespread restrictions and showers return Saturday with crossing low pressure. VFR briefly returns Sunday under high pressure, before restrictions in showers/possible tstms return Sunday night and Monday with a warm front.
HYDROLOGY
Widespread rounds of rainfall are expected beginning Saturday and continuing into the middle part of next week. The initial rounds should eventually saturate the ground, resulting in an increased flood potential as additional showers and thunderstorms occur. Ensemble probabilities for >2" of total rainfall have increased (40-70%) areawide, but especially across West Virginia, with high end amounts of 3-4" not out of the question there. This may result in areas of flooding or flash flooding, especially on Monday into Tuesday, when our area has been placed in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for excessive rainfall.
Rises on area rivers from prolonged excessive rainfall are also looking increasingly possible as ensemble probabilities continue to trend higher by the beginning of next week.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ514.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH | 74 mi | 74 min | WNW 8.9G | |||||
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH | 77 mi | 104 min | NW 15G | |||||
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH | 82 mi | 56 min | NW 14G | 36°F | 46°F | 30.00 | 31°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KPJC ZELIENOPLE MUNI,PA | 10 sm | 19 min | W 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 28°F | 75% | 30.01 | |
KUCP NEW CASTLE MUNI,PA | 15 sm | 18 min | NW 10 | Clear | 36°F | 25°F | 64% | 30.02 | ||
KBTP PITTSBURGH/BUTLER RGNL,PA | 16 sm | 18 min | var 06G15 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 25°F | 64% | 30.00 | |
KBVI BEAVER COUNTY,PA | 18 sm | 19 min | NW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 25°F | 56% | 30.00 |
Pittsburgh, PA,
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