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LEZ148 Expires:202312090315;;129056 Fzus51 Kcle 082048 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 348 pm est Fri dec 8 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez147>149-090315- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 348 pm est Fri dec 8 2023
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 41 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 082026 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 326 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will bring above average temperatures to the Upper Ohio River Valley through Saturday. Probability of rain increases late Saturday evening. The potential for daily record breaking rainfall is expected Sunday. Rain will change over to snow late Sunday night, accumulations Monday morning along the ridges will range between 1 to 4 inches of snow.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Warm, dry conditions will continue for the rest of the evening under high pressure. Temperatures have exceed the 90th percentile of forecast guidance as observations climb into the low to mid-60s with the mixing of warm air aloft (the 12Z sounding had a warm nose at 2kft this morning that measured 10.3C) to the surface.

Overnight temperature temperatures will continue to trend warm (10 to 15 degrees above average). Temperatures are expected to range in the low to mid-40s in the lower elevations, upper-30s in the higher terrain. Clouds will likely overspread the region from west to east as a new disturbance advances closer to the Ohio River Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES: Probabilities remain high that an inch of rainfall followed by heavy wet snow will occur Sunday into Monday.

By Saturday morning, a mature low pressure system situated over the Dakotas will eject into the Great Lakes region within an elongated trough that will dig deep into the Mississippi River Valley. As a result, a strong low-level jet will develop across portions of the Ohio River Valley and warm, moist conditions will overspread eastern Ohio and western PA. Sfc dew points will climb from the mid-30s after dawn to low-50s by late evening.
Strong ascension with an incoming cold front will likely result in line of convection Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Heavy rainfall rates embedded within this line could create a narrow swath between 11pm Saturday to 6am Sunday due to upper- lvl winds running parallel along the front. Thunderstorms chances increase between 7pm Saturday to 1am Sunday due to elevated instability. Confidence is low for severe chances, lightning and heavy downpours will be the main threat.

Rain will continue late Sunday morning into Sunday night.
Probability of 1 inch is high for areas south and east of Pittsburgh with the latest guidance; probabilities of this specific amount are above 70%. When comparing the 01Z run of the NBM and the 13Z run, models have been trending down on rainfall amounts for areas north and northwest of Pittsburgh with the potential of mid-lvl dry air crossing the region.

Rain will likely change over to a wintry mix followed by snow late Sunday into early Monday morning with incoming cold air from the northwest. Probability of 1 inch of accumulation is high within the ridges, ranging between 70% to 95%. The snow will likely be wet and heavy and could create impacts with shoveling late Sunday night into early Sunday morning for areas that experience more than half inch. The worst case scenario for Preston/Tucker County and the Laurel Highlands is 6 to 7 inches of snow. However, that scenario is if colder air advances quicker than model guidance. Elsewhere, less than a half inch is expected given warm surface temperatures and the quick exit of the trough to the Northeast.

Snow shower chances early Monday morning through Monday afternoon will likely be confided to the ridges and downstream of Lake Erie given upsloping and lake enhancement. An additional half inch to inch could accumulate near I-80 and elevations above 2kft.

Monday high temperatures will trend slightly below average by 5 degrees given cloud coverage and lingering cold air aloft.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Monday night temperatures will trend cooler than average as clouds clear and radiational cooling occurs. With elevated wind gusts at the surface, 20 to 25mph in the low elevations to 25mph to 35mph in the higher terrain, wind chill values will fall into the teens. Single digit wind chill values are likely in the higher terrain of Preston and Tucker County.

Near normal temperatures and drier weather is expected Tuesday into Friday as high pressure over the Midwest shifts east.



AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of this afternoon along with south to southwest winds around 10 knots gusting 15-20 knots. Winds settle this evening and a more dense deck of mid/high clouds overspreads the area from the west as the next weather system approaches. Ceilings gradually drop overnight to around 5-7kft AGL by sunrise. A few light showers are possible mainly for areas west of PIT during mid morning hours Saturday, but no restrictions are expected. Ceilings continue to lower to MVFR levels just beyond the current 24-hour TAF period (this is reflected towards the tail end of the PIT 30-hr TAF).

OUTLOOK
The next impactful system with rain and associated restrictions is expected late Saturday through Sunday, followed by a transition to snow and continued restrictions Sunday night into Monday. VFR returns Monday night and should last through much of next week as high pressure builds into the area.



HYDROLOGY

Widespread rain of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is expected for most of the Upper Ohio River Valley Saturday night into Sunday. Heavier rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible over the ridges of Southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. Rapid rises are expected Sunday night due to runoff, especially along the Monongahela Basin. With rivers running below average across the region, the probability of river forecast points approaching flood stage is low. Local tributaries may be impacted in areas with localized heavy amounts.

CLIMATE

Daily record precipitation has the potential to be tied and/or broken on Sunday (December 10th).

CLI Site /24hr Rainfall Record (Year)/24hr Rainfall Forecast

Pittsburgh, PA / 1.20" (1878) / 1.24" Wheeling, WV / 0.94" (1952) / 1.32" Morgantown, WV / 1.44" (1878) / 1.44" Zanesville, OH / 0.82" (1966) / 0.96" New Philadelphia, OH / 0.62" (2012) / 1.03"



PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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