Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 9:43 AM   Moonset 12:34 AM

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LEZ148 Expires:202405132015;;136905 Fzus51 Kcle 131315 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 915 am edt Mon may 13 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>148-132015- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh- 915 am edt Mon may 13 2024
This afternoon - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 52 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 132311 AAA AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 711 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A series of low pressure systems bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through the end of the week.
Temperatures will stay above normal throughout the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

-Dry conditions and ample sunshine today with above normal temperatures.
______________________________________________________________

The upper ridge that provided warm and sunny weather to the area today pushes off to the east tonight as an upstream trough advances eastward into the Midwest. With the approaching trough comes decreasing heights and increasing moisture, which will support scattered shower activity overspreading the area from the southwest, particularly after midnight. Persistent southerly flow and increasing clouds will keep temperatures roughly 5-10 degrees above normal tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Minimal severe threat.
______________________________________________________________

The upper trough over the Midwest tracks eastward across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday, eventually sliding east of the area by Wednesday night. Increasing moisture and ascent will result in a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the entire area through that time, with activity tapering off Wednesday night as an upper ridge begins to build in from the west in the wake of the trough. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain generally light through this system, with widespread amounts forecast to remain in the 0.25-0.75 inch range.
Ensemble probabilities of storm total QPF greater than 0.5" is roughly 60-70% south of I-70 and 40-50% farther north. In fact, probabilities for an inch of rain in this 48 hour window are near or less than 30% everywhere. That said, while widespread rainfall amounts will be generally light, locally higher amounts will remain possible if any locations see multiple rounds of thunderstorms during this period, since the heaviest rates can be expected in any storms. The severe weather threat remains low as both instability and bulk shear will be marginal at best during this period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions briefly return Thursday morning.
- Ensemble spread is still relatively high, but another trough appears to bring showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast late Thursday through the end of the week.
- Above normal temperatures continue.
______________________________________________________________

A weak upper ridge quickly builds into the area in the wake of the departing trough, bringing a brief period of dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However, another upstream trough will be hot on its heels, digging into the Great Lakes region and quickly ushering the upper ridge off to the east.
This will bring increasing chances for showers and storms back to the area Thursday afternoon through the end of the week.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through most of the forecast period.
Expect virga by early Tuesday with showers beginning to reach the ground toward daybreak. There may be a break in the light rain showers late Tuesday morning and a continuation of VFR cigs. Scattered showers and storms may develop late in the afternoon. This will be covered with a prob30 at most ports.

Winds generally under 10KTs and south-southwesterly.

Outlook
Restrictions are likely, along with showers and possible thunderstorms, Wednesday as slow moving low pressure crosses the region. Restrictions are possible Thursday with scattered showers as the low exits. VFR returns Restrictions are possible again Friday with an approaching cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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