Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Salonga, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Winter Weather advisories for much of the area with light freezing rain and freezing drizzle expected for this evening into the overnight.

2) Temperatures near to slightly above normal Saturday night through Tuesday.

3) There is a chance for light rain and/or snow late Sunday through Monday. Uncertainty remains high, and probabilities have trended lower.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Have chosen to expand the winter weather advisory for a portion of New York City, the northern half of Long Island, and all of NE NJ for mainly light freezing rain and freezing drizzle.
The question still remains as to whether it precipitates enough to cause impacts, even if they are minor across the expanded advisory zones. For the NYC metro it will be marginal as road temperatures sensors have come in warmer than expected during the course of the afternoon. Due to urban effects have held off on including Manhattan and locations across the southern portion of the 5 boroughs from the advisory. Otherwise the ground should be cold enough elsewhere so that even some very light precipitation would cause a light glaze. The evening hours should see the bulk of any light precipitation. It should start off as snow further north, otherwise it starts as very light snow or a light snow/sleet mix and quickly goes to light freezing rain and light freezing drizzle as a warm nose aloft works in getting temperatures a few degrees above freezing above the boundary layer and up towards 4-5 kft AGL. The sfc advection remains weak and with low dewpoint readings thought it prudent to expand the advisory some. The southern coastal zones should stay just warm enough at ground level to be primarily plain drizzle and light rain. However, this will be watched closely during the evening as southern zones may get added to the advisory if obs/conditions warrant. This will not be an accumulating type winter event as the system is weak and lift will be weak. Also it is worth noting that locations along the western edge of the winter weather advisory may actually struggle to squeeze out measurable precipitation. However, criteria for a winter weather advisory is only for a trace of freezing rain, thus the advisory for even far western portions of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2
After a prolonged period of temperatures well below normal, temperatures will be slowly trending back to normal to slightly above normal from Friday night into the beginning of next week. Lows will range from the mid teens inland to the mid/upper 20s along the coast Friday night and Saturday night, and mid 20s to lower 30s Sunday night and Monday night.
Highs will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s Saturday and Sunday, and in the lower/mid 40s Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3
A lot of uncertainty remains with low pressure passing to the south of the area Sunday into Monday night. NBM probabilities have trended down with this system, and global models are now showing that upper ridging will remain across the central US and into the Great Lakes, and moving into the northeast US Friday and into the weekend as an upper shortwave moves into the southwest US and then rides under the ridge across the southern tier. At the surface a reinforcing high builds out of central Canada and suppresses the surface low well to the south as the low reaches the East Coast by late this weekend. The area will be on the northern edge of the storm, with the chance of light snow and/or rain. If trends continue there is the possibility that the area could remain dry through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A frontal system will impact the terminals this evening into early Wednesday.

There is about a 3-5 hour window tonight for wintry precipitation, mainly from 03Z-08Z. Mainly light freezing rain will occur for inland and S CT terminals along with MVFR conditions. Some sleet could mix in at KHPN/KSWF. For KEW/KTEB/KLGA, there may be a mix of light freezing rain and light rain due to surface temperatures hovering around 32 degrees. A light glaze of ice possible. Have sided with plain rain at KJFK/KISP with temps remaining above freezing.

Any precipitation quickly ends from west to east from 05Z-08Z, with VFR cond.

Light S-SSE winds early this evening could become variable or even ENE at KBDR/KLGA as precip arrives. After precip ends, winds should become WNW less than 10 kt, then increase late tonight, becoming WNW-NW with gusts 20-25 kt after 14Z. Gusts 25-30 kt likely Wed afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Precipitation type tonight from 03Z-06Z could prevail as light freezing rain for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB if surface temperatures fall with arrival of precip. Amounts should be light.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of snow inland and either snow/rain at the NYC metros/coast at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions continue through tonight on primarily a light S flow. Winds begin to switch to a more W direction towards the early portion of the morning. SCA cond will then develop quickly by mid morning Wed on all waters, and continue through the day Thu. An occasional gust to gale force is possible for the ocean waters Wed afternoon/evening. SCA cond could last into Thu night on the ocean.

Winds and seas then fall below advisory levels beginning Friday, and lasting through Sunday night. There is uncertainty with the track of low pressure passing to the south Sunday night: if the low tracks a little farther to the north, then wind gusts on the ocean will be near SCA levels later in the weekend. However, latest trends have been to keep the low track farther south.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>007-009>011.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067>071-073-078-079-176-177.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.