Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Suffolk, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Narrow broken bands of shower and embedded thunderstorm activity along pre-frontal trough and subsequent cold front, west of the Hudson River, expected to move east through late afternoon. Overall this is presenting more of an isolated flash flood and severe threat thru this afternoon. A Flood Watch is in effect for northern New Jersey and NYC through early this evening.

2) High surf and high rip current risk expected for the ocean beaches through this evening.

3) Unsettled weather at times once again Wednesday and Thursday this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
An anomalous upper trough and associated surface frontal system interact with anomalously high precipitable water (PW). 12z OKX sounding of 2.5" PWAT was not too far off from the all- time high of 2.62" August 19, 1955.

Best llj/theta-e axis will continue to slide east this afternoon, taking primary heavy downpour and embedded thunderstorm axis east of Long Island and SE CT though mid afternoon. Additional narrow broken bands of shower and embedded thunderstorm activity,along pre-frontal trough and subsequent cold front, west of the Hudson River, expected to move east through late afternoon. Overall this is presenting more of an isolated flash flood and severe wind threat thru this afternoon. A Flood Watch is in effect for northern New Jersey and NYC through early this evening.

With gradual drying during through this afternoon/evening as the vertical wind profile begins to veer to the SW, shower/thunderstorm coverage and intensity will likely decrease from west to east. The threat ends from w to e late this afternoon into early this evening as a cold front will passes through.

High pressure and dry weather is on tap for Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday through Friday as the western Atlantic ridge retrogrades, sending the dissipating frontal boundary into the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Both Wavewatch and NWPS guidance have long period southerly swells of 8-11 ft 9s today which supports a high surf advisory for the ocean beaches and dangerous rip currents in the surf zone through this evening. Surf will range from 6 to 10 ft, highest across the Suffolk County ocean beaches.

A borderline moderate to high risk of rip currents expected for Tuesday with residual 4-5@7ft SE swell. Will lean towards a high risk and extension of rip current statement for Tuesday , with worse conditions in the morning.

Moderate rip risk likely for Wednesday as SSE swells continue to subside to 3 to 4 ft.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday through Thursday as the western Atlantic ridge retrogrades, sending the dissipating frontal boundary into the area. PW values will close in on 2 inches. Localized heavy rainfall will be possible.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front swings through during the remainder of this afternoon with the front clearing eastern terminals by the evening push. High pressure builds tonight into Tuesday.

Any brief sub VFR conditions this afternoon with SHRA and TSRA give way to VFR.

Any SHRA and TSRA end with the passage of a cold front this afternoon.
TEMPO and PROB30 groups for TSRA end from 19-23z from west to east.
Flight cats quickly improving to VFR behind the cold front. VFR prevails for evening push and through the remainder of the TAF period.

SW winds gusting to around 20 kt mainly along the coast and for city terminals should shift W and NW behind the cold front, then N-NE late tonight. Some patchy localized BR, and perhaps FG cannot be ruled out for outlying terminals overnight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible for changing flight cats over the next couple of hours, until 20z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night: VFR.

Wednesday through Saturday: MVFR or lower flight cat at times in showers/tstms, highest chance for western terminals. Winds mainly S-SW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft conditions are forecast for the ocean and some eastern non-ocean zones through this afternoon with south winds of 15 to 25 kt and gusts up to 30 kt. Highest winds will be across the eastern ocean waters.

Winds subside below late afternoon into evening in wake of cold front, but SCA for seas will continue for the western ocean waters thu daybreak and through the morning for eastern ocean waters.

Sub advisory conditions likely Tue afternoon through midweek under weak pressure regime.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ072>075-176-178.
High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.