Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Terre, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:14PM Saturday March 28, 2020 1:09 PM EDT (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:00AMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1259 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm edt this evening through Sunday morning...
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the evening, then light rain and occasional drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Occasional light rain and drizzle. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain and drizzle in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 1259 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches from the southwest today into tonight. The warm front remains near the region Sunday and moves northeast of the area Sunday night. A weakening cold front with weak low pressure along it move across Sunday night across the local waters. The low slowly moves off the coast Monday into Tuesday as high pressure briefly returns. Another low passes to the south Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Terre village, NY
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location: 40.99, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 281704 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 104 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front approaches from the southwest through tonight and remains near the region on Sunday with low pressure moving across New England Sunday night into Monday. The low slowly moves off the coast Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure briefly returns. Another low passes to the south Wednesday with weak high pressure following for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Mainly light rain has progressed as far east as central LI and SW CT and will continue a slow progression east as it runs into ridging and drier air. The rain may become more disjointed as the HRRR continues to suggest. As such have backed off slightly on rainfall totals this afternoon, averaging around a quarter inch.

Low pressure tracks from the Central Plains to the middle MS Valley. While the primary low center of this storm system will be well west of us, its associated warm front will continue to slowly approach from the Mid Atlantic. Warm advection rain will continue through the night, possibly transitioning over to light rain and drizzle late at night as the mid levels begin to dry out. The one caveat here is that a departing surface ridge along the New England coast and deep-layered ridging aloft could take some time to moisten before being offset by thermal forcing and a SE LLJ that works across the area starting late this afternoon.

East winds gradually strengthen through tonight with the potential for gusts up to 25 mph, mainly near the coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The warm front remains to our south Sunday into Sunday night as a wave of low pressure moves along it. There is however a chance that the front lifts through a portion of the forecast area late in the day into the evening. Rain is still likely in the morning and somewhat less likely in the afternoon although drizzle will be possible at any given point through the day as mid levels continue to dry out. A weak surface trough then pushes in Sunday night with 3KM NAM suggesting convective cells potentially moving in ahead of it as elevated instability will be present. Moisture would otherwise be shallow by this time and low levels will be stable. PoPs therefore continue to drop through the night and will leave out the mention of thunder, but there will still a chance of light rain or drizzle.

The parent low of the storm system heads towards the Adirondacks Monday into Monday night, tracking along with a closed 500mb low. It should be dry through most of the morning for us, but cyclonic flow aloft and in increase in mid level moisture will bring low chances of showers in the afternoon and evening. Maybe a lingering shower still possible over eastern zones late at night with an inverted surface trough still in the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. For now, will continue with a dry forecast for Tuesday as weak high pressure tries to build in, however an inverted surface trough and moisture convergence along it has a chance to linger INVOF the forecast area for a portion of the day.

A progressive southern stream shortwave approaches the eastern seaboard Tuesday night. Energy with this shortwave may phase with some lingering northern stream energy from an offshore upper low on Wednesday. However, the main surface low is most likely to pass well to the south and east of the region off the Carolina coast with little to no impacts here. Will maintain low chance PoPs for Wednesday at this point, but should trends continue, might be able to remove PoPs altogether soon.

The upper trough and surface low may linger across the Western Atlantic for the end of next week, but mostly dry conditions are anticipated over the CWA.

Temperatures during the period should be near to slightly above normal.

AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A warm front will approach from the southwest through tonight, and become stationary to the south on Sunday.

VFR through early this afternoon, then lowering to MVFR toward evening and IFR tonight with rain moving in and becoming more steady. There will be LIFR at times in ceilings and visibilities overnight into early Sunday with fog in the forecast as well. Since rain has come in at the NYC metros, at least TEMPO lower conds could arrive 1-2 hr earlier than 12Z TAF indicates.

E-SE winds generally 5-10 kt today (perhaps a little stronger at KJFK) will increase to 10-15G15-20kt, higher in the metros and close to the coast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Sunday. Rain, drizzle, fog, with widespread IFR-LIFR conds. VLIFR possible attm especially along the coast. Conditions improving Sunday night, becoming VFR toward Monday morning. E winds G15-20 kt gradually taper off in the afternoon. Monday. Mainly VFR. Widely scattered showers possible in the afternoon and at night. Tuesday. Mainly VFR. Possible light rain at night. Wednesday. MVFR possible in showers.

MARINE. In terms of winds, SCA conditions linger across the eastern waters on Sunday. Sub-SCA Sunday night through Tuesday night and then a return to SCA conditions on the ocean waters on Wednesday.

SCA ocean seas forecast Sunday through Monday evening. For late Monday night through much of Tuesday night, sub-SCA. SCA seas on ocean forecast Wednesday into Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall amounts may need to be adjusted downward based on incoming guidance. For now though, up to an inch of rainfall is forecast through Sunday night. This will be falling over a long period of time, so no hydrologic impacts are expected with this system. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the coming week.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.



UPDATE . DW AVIATION . Goodman/JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi52 min E 9.9 G 12 47°F 44°F1021.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 22 mi52 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 49°F 44°F1021.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi50 min E 14 G 19 44°F 2 ft38°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi55 min ENE 14 G 18 44°F 32°F41°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi52 min E 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 51°F1021.4 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 51 mi80 min 5.8 G 5.8 46°F 45°F3 ft1020.4 hPa (+1.2)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 53 mi52 min 49°F 46°F1020.3 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 54 mi40 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 46°F 1020.8 hPa44°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 57 mi45 min E 11 G 12 47°F 1019.8 hPa27°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 57 mi52 min E 13 G 14 48°F 1020.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 58 mi52 min SE 6 G 8.9 50°F 44°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY13 mi14 minE 1010.00 miLight Rain48°F39°F71%1020.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT13 mi18 minE 1210.00 miLight Rain47°F35°F63%1021.3 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi14 minESE 710.00 miLight Rain50°F35°F57%1021 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi17 minESE 910.00 miOvercast51°F27°F39%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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N9N5N3W3W5W3N4NW4CalmN4NE5E6E7E7E11E10E12E13E9E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson Harbor entrance, Long Island Sound, New York
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Port Jefferson Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:17 AM EDT     6.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:38 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:43 PM EDT     6.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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56.26.86.65.642.41.20.40.312.33.95.26.16.25.64.32.91.70.90.71.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:22 AM EDT     6.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:48 PM EDT     5.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.45.66.26.15.23.92.41.20.40.20.823.44.75.55.75.24.12.81.70.90.61.12.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.